Brutally Direct.Politically Incorrect. Unbearably Honest. Incorrigible😜Independen Thinker🤔 I summarize mixed info. 4 those who, like me, like 2 stay informed.
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Families that sought refuge from
city costs
R now seeing their
budgets grow more rapidly
than in
Manhattan
where expenses rose
4.6% annually
over the past 5 years.
(no shite Sherlock!)

6
.
US mortgage rates
climbed
4
a 7th straight week 2 their highest level in almost 3 years
compounding the nation’s affordability problem.
The contract rate on a
30-year fixed mortgage
rose 2
7.49%
in the week ended Oct. 2
its highest point since Nov. 2023.
.
11
The record-breaking run
in stocks
that’s come despite Treasury yields touching multi-decade highs
finally
hit a wall.
1 potential impetus may B
caution
in the face of
rate-hike fears.
All 19 Federal Reserve officials backed the decision to raise rates in September amid rising inflation and war-driven oil prices.
“Another rate hike is
probably coming this year
because
current policy isn’t very restrictive.”
David Russell @ TradeStation said:
“With inflation above target
+
most measures of economic activity strong
price stability is the Fed’s dominant mandate.”
(... tomorrow is a new day.)
10
.
Perhaps I should have posted the conclusion first?
Generally I like to do so.
.
.
All of this means
that
a small group of stocks R
carrying the index
&
if they start 2 disappoint on
any number of metrics like:
cash flow
margins
demand
competition
or
guidance
it will look very different
&
the speed at which that may happen might shock the markets
because
IF the algos (algorithms)
decide 2 sell
things can get a bit nasty
&
buyers won’t disappear BUT
they simply pull back
happy
2 buy @ cheaper prices.
EPS are 2 B reported next week
&
profits R expected
2 rise between 25 - 29.3% y/y
=
it helps explain why
some investors R
looking past much of the negativity out there.
🤔😜📊📈
7
👇👇
Half of stocks R trading
below
their long term trendline
=
Means they R in ‘correction territory’ if not
‘bear market territory’
while
many ‘tech’ names R
close 2 new highs.
SO it means that
the biggest names R doing the ‘heavy lifting
while 50% of the names struggle.
Since August
the S&P is down ~3.9%
&
the Equal Weight S&P is down ~7%.
BUT ... YTD
the S&P is +14.2%
&
the Equal Weight S&P is + 10.8%.
WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN ❓
Let's explain
👇👇
1
14
👇👇
The S&P is a
market weighted average.
The biggest companies (TECH) have an outsized weighting on this index
= about 40%.
It does NOT include⭐️
AMZN
GOOG
TSLA or
META because
they are NOT considered ‘TECH’
they are considered
Consumer Discretionary
&
Communications.
IF you were 2
include the 4 CO's above,
then
the percentage weighting is close 2 53%
=
more than 1/2 of the index
thus it's clear
how influential the tech sector
+
these names R
the headline index.
IF
one compares the above 2 the
Equal Weight S&P
(which gives every CO. the same weight vs. the biggest CO.'s having greater influence)
then
the picture become clearer.
Both indexes have the same names, but different ways of measuring,
which can create a little confusion?
🤔
1
13
.
All of this means
that
a small group of stocks R
carrying the index
&
if they start 2 disappoint on
any number of metrics like:
cash flow
margins
demand
competition
or
guidance
it will look very different
&
the speed at which that may happen might shock the markets
because
IF the algos (algorithms)
decide 2 sell
things can get a bit nasty
&
buyers won’t disappear BUT
they simply pull back
happy
2 buy @ cheaper prices.
EPS are 2 B reported next week
&
profits R expected
2 rise between 25 - 29.3% y/y
=
it helps explain why
some investors R
looking past much of the negativity out there.
🤔😜📊📈
15
.
TODAY: Wednesdays
Yesterday the
S&P + Nasdaq
broke out
2
new highs but
the bulk of the market remains under stress.
Oil appears steady
Gold also steady &
Bond yields R up again today.
Another treasury auction today: the 10 year one.
Earnings R coming up soon.
.
20
Mr T wants out of this ill-planned war?
US hegemony
in the Middle East is ending
not just because
its interventions raise oil prices
&
voters punish the party in power
BUT
also because Americans R
tired of the effort &
expense of
policing an explosive region, not very effectively.
Is poised to take his place?
No Arab state.
But perhaps another regional power will try 2 fill at least some of the vacuum?
IDK.
I, like many, wish 2 live peacefully.
Peace requires compromises that
excludes exploitation of poorer nations.
.
11
.
I don't understand why
so many
don't understand.
Peace is so much more profitable!
Sharing vs. grabbing is best option.
"Give peace a chance"
6
.
GO FIGURE!
China is in contact w/
Russian authoritie
sover the suspected case of
pneumonic plague
in a worker @ an
anti-plague research institute
in
Russia’s Siberian region of
Irkutsk
according
2 Chinese foreign ministry.
It comes after
US Pres T
announced yesterday that he has scheduled a call
2 speak
2 Russian Pres Putin
2 discuss the case “very soon,”
&
that the
US would offer
assistance 2 Russia.
.
1
165
Ahead of US earnings season next week
the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 Index closed at record highs
as
AI-related stocks led the advance.
Asian stocks slid, in contrast to Wall Street.
.
22
.
Musk’s SpaceX is in talks
with banks and investors
2 raise $40 billion of debt
2 fund Nvidia chip purchases
further underscoring the insatiable demand for more computing power from AI developers.
The financing round is set to raise $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade debt to pay for the chips, the Financial Times reported earlier.
25
WEDNESDAY's Snapshot
Euro
$1.12
-0.3%
WTI crude oil futures
$89.91
+0.5%
Nasdaq-100 Index
31,224.47
+0.5%
S&P 500 INDEX
7,818.93
+0.6%
Market data as of 02:04 AM ET
28
🥳
Barack Obama is back
ready 2
dive in fully into campaigning 4 Democratic Party.
Will it be a psychic blow
2 T & M AGAs?
Will America’s most popular ex-pres. strike fear into
America’s most unpopular president?
This is likely 2 keep historians
&
psychologists, busy for decades.
😜
1
25
.
What Happened Yesterday ❓❓
Stocks advanced again.
Investors, traders + algos decided that
‘expected’ strong earnings reports
+
AI spending boom were enough 2
keep the party going
even if
bond market continued up.
Oil was down a bit
=
market celebrated
but borrowing costs for
10 & 30 yr bond yields
rose &
latest round of eco data
reminded us that
INFLATION remains very much alive.
MARKETS:
Dow up 0.2%
S&P up 0.7%
Nasdaq up 1%
Russell up 0.5%
Transports down 1%
Equal Weight S&P up 0.6%
Mag 7 up 1.2%.
.
17