Established 2020, yet with decades of combined experience, we are a young team of scientists, programmers and policy advisers. On climate risk & climate science
Melbourne / Berlin / Vienna
Based in Australia
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And it makes little difference if Australia continues using a 2005 baseline for these targets, or makes use of the COP28 2019 baseline. This is because Australia’s emissions have changed very little over the past two decades ☹️
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To do its bit, Australia needs a 67% reduction in emissions by 2030 relative to 2005, 90% by 2035, and 100% by 2040 if we use a GHG emissions budget consistent with a 50% chance of 1.5C.
(More analysis on this here - climate-resource.com/reports…)
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Now that the dust is settling on COP28, and with Australia pushing its bid for COP31 in 2026, let’s assess Australia’s existing climate targets and consider what it needs to do to show leadership.
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Entering the 1.5C world, it's time for a fossil fuel exit.
Phase-in of renewables is key, but only replaces fossil fuel (emissions), if married with strong energy efficiency and dedicated coal, oil and gas phase-out policies.
Full briefing: climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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The latest temperature assessments of the NDCs and LT-LEDS pledges by countries - and how they fair against the Paris Agreement temperature goals?
Surprise: We are still quite far off 1.5C.
Here an overview of all the main studies on it. See more at: climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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Today Climate Resource released its 2023 briefing on likely future global temperature rise, with comparisons of our projections to recent assessments by UNEP, UNFCCC, the IEA and others -
COP28: Entering a 1.5°C world, it’s time for a fossil fuel exit - climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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But, with the stagnating progress towards stronger NDCs, COP28 success will likely be measured by whether an equally decisive agreement is reached on the phase-out of fossil fuels. This phaseout should reach at least 90% by 2035 at the latest.
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This would more than double our estimate of renewable energy capacity reflected in 2030 NDCs and conform with 1.5°C aligned pathways in the scientific literature.
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If all countries achieve their NDCs and long-term targets in full and on time - without non-additional carbon offsets, and without accounting tricks - our optimistic temperature projection slightly improves to 1.8-1.9 °C (median projections) with a range from 1.4°C to 2.8°C
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Will we see 1.5C global-mean temperatures?
Yes.
Will the 1.5C target be lost?
No.
#COP27 #auspol
See full report here: data.climateresource.com.au/…
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Here our comparison chart for the various temperature assessments in the run up to #COP27 so far.
(full report at: data.climateresource.com.au/…)
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Our estimate for long-term GHG emissions and warming under NDCs and long-term targets (the officially submitted ones) - if implementation without loopholes makes those net-zero targets a reality.
Not enough for 1.5C warming, though. For that, better 2030 NDCs needed.
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When including long-term targets, ambition ambiguity is less and warming comes out 'just below 2C' - IF all these pledges are now followed through --> implementation #COP27.
-> Not much has changed though over last 12 months (compare dashed brown line to dark brown area).
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We crunched numbers for #COP27: Based on 2030 NDCs alone, we project 2.2 to 2.9C best-estimate warming.
Relatively wide 'ambition ambiguity'. Sum of 2030 NDCs are neither in line with Paris Agreement targets, nor with net-zero targets.
New report: data.climateresource.com.au/…
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For week 2 of #COP27, we pulled together various temperature assessments.
-> Between 2C-3C for current 2030 NDCs
-> Just below 2C for NDCs + long-term targets.
-> temperature assessments pretty much agree - but headline numbers show different scenarios or settings.
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Pretty much whole world has climate targets under Paris (NDCs), most of them updated theirs, and 75% of world's CO2 emissions are covered by long-term targets.
Animated Figure 1 from today's Nature paper rdcu.be/cLhdT
with @Laura_Cozzi_ @TofMcGlade @NichollsZeb
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Excited, humbled and proud that our climate pledge analysis made it onto the front cover of nature. Great team with @IEA and others. Free access to article here: rdcu.be/cLhdT
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And indeed, only for the conditional NDC 2030 case, we derive the 2.3C value (with a climate uncertainty range from 1.6C to 3.3C).
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JUST LAUNCHED: Making your own temperature projections in line with @IPCC_CH WG1 science?
New portal:
live.magicc.org
BTW: MAGICC is temperature engine behind @UNEP gap report, @IEA 1.8C assessments, our 1.9C NDC analysis (climate-resource.com/tools/n…) and 2.4C by CAT
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~2.7C is the warming that we might get for unconditional NDCs and no further action.
~1.9C peak warming & 1.8C end-of-century warming is what is - optimistically - at the moment on the table - IF there is:
- sufficient support
- sufficient policies
- sufficient action
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14/ anyway.
There is also Global Methane Pledge to reduce CH4 by 30%.
However, we find that most of the 30% reduction will likely come about when the 130 countries implement their NDCs and long-term targets.
Thus, it might shave off an additional 0.02C of warming, not 0.2C.
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12/ However....
Pledges themselves do not reduce emissions ("blah blah blah" ).
Only policies, support for mitigation action and on-the-ground initiatives do.
We probably should have put a warning sticker on the previous graphs. Here we go.
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11/ If we now also include India's announcement of its 2070 net-zero target*, then - as we announced last week, the best-estimate warming could even be 1.9C or just below 2C. A truly historic moment.
* we only assume the less-ambitious net-zero CO2 target, but it could be GHG.
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10/ From 18th to 28th October, China and a few other countries, like Japan, submitted updated NDCs.
These pledges (IF implemented) brought down the best-estimate to 1.9C to 2.1C - thus, just on the cusp of 2C.
(Note, we now consider both 2030 and long-term target updates)
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9/ If we now also consider the long-term targets, our best estimate median warming is 2.1C to 2.3C - for the status of NDCs as of 18th October 2021, a bit before the #COP26.
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7/ #COP26: How much difference in future warming does the recent Chinese 2030 NDC enhancement and the India announcement make - when NOT considering the long-term targets?
A: about -0.1C
(It is a bit higher for the unconditional NDCs and a bit less for the conditional ones).
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6/ For conditional 2030 NDCs, the projection can also yield 2.3C (here for the 18th October status of NDCs).
(Of course, 2.3C is only a name tag for a range that is relatively wide due to climate system uncertainties. In this case, the 5% to 95% range reaches from 1.6C to 3.3C).
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5/ #COP26. Projecting warming from 2030 NDCs is tricky, as much depends on post-2030 emissions.
We employ method based on large scenario set (more in Briefing: climate-resource.com/tools/n…)
Also yields 2.7C for unconditional 2030 NDCs, but uncertainty is inherently large.
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4/ #COP26 .... What becomes apparent from summing up all country targets for 2030: We are very, very far away from "optimal" trajectories towards 1.5C (blue).
Best analysed in UNEP Gap report
unep.org/resources/emissions…
(yep, we were one of four teams contributing NDC analysis)
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3/ #COP26 ... Corresponding to the unconditional NDCs up to 2030 and not considering long-term targets, emission trends in IPCC SSP2-4.5 (red line) might be good proxy for potential future warming.
As @UNFCCC hints at, that makes 2.7C warming.
unfccc.int/process-and-meeti…
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2/ #COP26 Projected NDCs emissions by 2030 can vary, depending on whether one considers...
- conditional or unconditional parts,
- 'hot air' (hello Pakistan/Turkey),
- high or low GDP projections
- any vague elements.
Check out 196 factsheets here: climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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1/ #COP26 NEW BRIEFING: Making sense of 1.8C, 1.9C and 2.7C.
We projected that new NDCs and long-term targets, IF adequately supported and implemented, could limit peak warming to 1.9C & @IEA also put forward 1.8C.
Yet, what about 2.7C?
Briefing here:
climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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#COP26 Interactive visualisation: Check out latest temperature projection for all NDCs and long-term targets.
1.9C peak warming and still 37% risk of exceeding 2C.
Not yet "well-below 2C" and certainly not 1.5C yet.
live.magicc.org/public/scena…
Briefing: climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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BREAKING #COP26
2.7C: warming of unconditional, least ambitious NDC 2030 range.
2.2C: Net-zero targets a few weeks ago shave off 0.5C (UNEP Gap report).
1.9C: A dozen new NDCs and INDIA's pledge, *IF* implemented and sufficiently supported
Briefing: climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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BREAKING #COP26:
With India's new net-zero pledge, the world is now heading for 1.9C - first time below 2C mark.
That is,
IF all NDCs and long-term targets are implemented, and
IF we assume median IPCC AR6 WG1 climate response.
Full briefing here: climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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Guess who is #1 of per-capita emitters among industrialised countries? Yes, sunshine country Australia
In 2030, Australia will still be close to the top, with only Russia's NDC resulting in higher per-capita emissions.
Check out our rankings:
climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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Hot Air & NDCs 2: Some exemplary countries reduced their previously sky-high emission pledges, but now show much more reasonable targets. Burundi or Paraguay for example.
(Grey triangle is previous pledge, updated NDC is dark area)
Interactive charts:
climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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Peaking this decade under both conditional and unconditional NDCs assumes that China will formalise its announcement of going to the 65% emission intensity improvement by 2030 (former pledge was 60%-65% - grey range below).
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COP26: For the first time in history, world's pledges to reduce emissions look like they could peak emissions this decade.
However, that's by far not enough. The gaps to 2C and 1.5C scenarios are only closed by 1/3 and 1/4, respectively.
New analysis:
climate-resource.com/tools/n…
ALT The 1.5C and 2C scenarios from the IPCC SR1.5 report compared to the aggregate NDC emission levels by 2030, with unconditional and conditional mitigation targets added up. The gap between the NDCs and the 2C scenarios is roughly 15 Gt CO2 eq, the gap towards the 1.5C scenarios is roughly 24 Gt CO2 eq.
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Just launched: Probably world's most comprehensive and up-to-date quantification of NDCs, >190 climate targets under the Paris Agreement
Check out what countries pledge for 2030/2050 (green), previous pledges (grey), and whether whole economy is covered:
climate-resource.com/tools/n…
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