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TRUMP'S PORTFOLIO IS WILD Trump's July disclosures show 1,000+ trades worth up to $270M. The interesting part isn't the number of trades. It's where the money is going: AI, semis, cloud and tech 👇
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NVIDIA JUST ADDED $150B TO ITS BUYBACK — TOTAL NOW $235B Stock +3% premarket. Same week the AI trade keeps arguing with itself about bubbles, capex, and safety pauses. Jensen’s line: once-in-a-generation platform shift. The authorization is the quieter message, management would rather retire stock than sit on a mountain of cash while the cycle runs. Why the market cares • Supports $NVDA into any soft tape or “AI spend is peaking” narrative • Signals confidence without needing another product keynote • Mega-cap AI with fortress cash flow can do what most of the sector can’t: return capital and keep building Buybacks don’t fix a demand cliff if one shows up. They do put a bid under the shares while hyperscalers and sovereigns still queue for GPUs.
JENSEN TO AI DOOMERS: “ENOUGH PREDICTIONS” Huang on Ezra Klein: catastrophic AI forecasts “aren’t scientific,” even when they come from scientists. Called Hinton-style 10–20% collapse odds ungrounded and “hurtful.” Said alarmism can scare kids out of college and that doomers’ track record is “literally horrible.” Of course he’s saying this. Nvidia’s entire business is the exponential buildout those warnings keep trying to slow. Optimism isn’t just a worldview when you sell the picks and shovels for the boom. Doesn’t mean every doom take is serious. Doesn’t mean the guy with the most to gain from “full speed ahead” is the neutral referee either.
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GOLD JUST HAD ITS BIGGEST ONE-DAY DROP SINCE JUNE XAU -3.4% XAG -4.2% Roughly $1T wiped off precious metals in hours. Gold broke $4,200; silver lost $62. This isn’t a random shakeout, it’s yields and the dollar doing the work. 30-year Treasury at 5.52%. DXY near a two-month high. Oil firming, October hike odds up around 66%, and markets pricing ~90 bp more tightening into late 2027. Non-yielding assets lose when the alternative starts paying again. Levels that matter now • Gold: $4,200 flips from support to first resistance • Next downside $4,150 / $4,100 • Silver: $62 is the line • Fail opens $60 Platinum and palladium sold off too, broad de-risking, not just gold profit-taking. This week’s catalysts Job openings (29.09) PCE (30.09) ISM PMI (01.10) NFP (02.10) Soft data can drag yields down and give metals a bounce. Hot PCE or strong payrolls = higher-for-longer sticks, and another leg lower stays in play. Metals don’t die on one session. They do reprice fast when the bond market changes the opportunity cost. Watch $4,200 - reclaim it and this looks like a flush. Stay under it and the trend has shifted.
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MAKE OR BREAK WEEK FOR SPACEX? 🚀 $SPCX is nudging +0.3% overnight ahead of Starship’s orbit attempt and 26 Starlink payload test. The fundamentals are absurd, unit launch costs projected to plunge 16x by 2028. But retail sentiment on Stocktwits just flipped straight to 'bearish' after last week's -3% dip, ending a 4-week green streak (-8% YTD). Meanwhile, the timeline is completely split: • Half the feed expects a rerating straight to $200 on orbital success • The other half is panicking over execution risk My personal target remains glued to $100.
RETAIL INVESTORS ARE GOING ALL-IN LONG ON $SPCX, BUT A BRUTAL CRASH BACK TO IPO LEVELS IS INEVITABLE I love watching retail traders turn aggressively bullish on a stock where, fundamentally, virtually nothing has changed on a macro scale. These long positions are being driven solely by Elon Musk’s announcement about an upcoming rocket launch. Yet the threat of insider dumping, the very catalyst that recently crushed the stock well below its IPO price, hasn't gone anywhere. Guess what happens as the next lockup expiration date approaches? A direct slide right back to the IPO price. 👉 Quick Digest: The stock rallied 5% over the past week. Nvidia Orbital AI Deal: SpaceX is partnering exclusively with Nvidia to deploy redesigned NVL72 hardware into orbit via its upcoming Starmind satellites, aiming to make space the cheapest destination for AI compute. Cantor on Rocket Lab: Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed that $RKLB remains an attractive entry point, noting its Neutron rocket could emerge as the only viable rival to the Falcon 9. Launch Date Rally: $SPCX surged nearly 6% today, crossing back above $150 after SpaceX slated Starship’s 14th flight and first-ever orbital test for September 22. Nasdaq-100 Rebalance: Following Monday’s quarterly rebalance, SpaceX’s weighting in the Nasdaq-100 will more than double from roughly 1.28% to 2.82%.
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UPTOBER IS ABOUT TO GO INSANE 🚀 The hard data you need to see 🧵👇
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Real talk, what’s your gameplan heading into this week? 1️⃣ Adding heavy to spot/longs 2️⃣ Loaded in summer, pure HODL mode 3️⃣ Trimming into strength / expecting a dump 4️⃣ Sitting in stables waiting for a pullback Drop your number below, let’s check the room 👇
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What it means to use a stop-loss in trading
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JUST IN: HORMUZ RISK JUST CAME BACK 🛢️ WSJ reports Trump rejected Iran’s 7-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt fighting. Iran says it’s still waiting for an official US response. For markets, this is a problem: Oil already around $100 → Hormuz stays vulnerable → supply risk stays elevated → inflation gets another headache And the timing matters. If strikes resume after the November elections as reported, markets may have to price a much longer period of elevated energy risk. That’s not just an oil trade anymore. It’s a rates + inflation + equities trade. The key level to watch now is whether crude can break higher again without a meaningful deterioration in global demand. If it does, the Fed gets a much uglier inflation problem, while equity valuations are still sitting on a lot of AI optimism.
DIESEL JUST BECAME A MACRO PROBLEM 🛢️ The White House is now considering multiple ways to bring diesel prices down: → suspend diesel taxes → ease fuel-blend restrictions → potentially restrict diesel exports → pressure refiners to voluntarily cut exports That’s not a normal fuel-market response. It tells you how serious the price shock has become. The weird part: cutting exports can lower US prices, but it also tightens global diesel supply. So the policy can help US consumers while pushing the shock elsewhere. And if diesel stays expensive, the next problem is inflation. Trucks, farming, construction, logistics — diesel touches almost everything. It is symbolic that this news is breaking right around the same time as claims of successful progress in US–Iran negotiations. Talking about successful talks while simultaneously pushing radical measures to preserve domestic reserves just doesn't add up. It looks like the White House doesn't put much faith in the success of these negotiations either, if they are happening at all, considering Iran called it fake news. Either way, it's logical to expect another spike in Brent and a fresh wave of risk-off sentiment across the market. A bad sign for equities and BTC.
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DIESEL JUST BECAME A MACRO PROBLEM 🛢️ The White House is now considering multiple ways to bring diesel prices down: → suspend diesel taxes → ease fuel-blend restrictions → potentially restrict diesel exports → pressure refiners to voluntarily cut exports That’s not a normal fuel-market response. It tells you how serious the price shock has become. The weird part: cutting exports can lower US prices, but it also tightens global diesel supply. So the policy can help US consumers while pushing the shock elsewhere. And if diesel stays expensive, the next problem is inflation. Trucks, farming, construction, logistics — diesel touches almost everything. It is symbolic that this news is breaking right around the same time as claims of successful progress in US–Iran negotiations. Talking about successful talks while simultaneously pushing radical measures to preserve domestic reserves just doesn't add up. It looks like the White House doesn't put much faith in the success of these negotiations either, if they are happening at all, considering Iran called it fake news. Either way, it's logical to expect another spike in Brent and a fresh wave of risk-off sentiment across the market. A bad sign for equities and BTC.
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DOES BITCOIN STILL HAVE ANY UPSIDE LEFT IN 2026?! 🚨 Even with the recent spike, $BTC is sitting at just +7.6% YTD — lagging massively behind Commodities (+47.3%), US Equities (+16–20%), and Convertible Bonds (+15.2%). Historically, Bitcoin either dominates the board as #1 (like 2020, 2023, 2024) or bleeds out at the very bottom (2014, 2018, 2022). Sitting awkwardly in the middle is rare. Are we looking at a late-cycle breakout, or is crypto officially losing its alpha this year? Drop your predictions below 👇
BITCOIN JUST SMASHED A MAJOR RESISTANCE LINE — MASSIVE ATH BREAKOUT OR DEAD CAT BOUNCE?! BTC has successfully broken through one of its key long-term resistance levels. The crucial move now is confirming a solid hold above $86k. 🟢 Last time this trendline broke, it paved the way for a brand-new ATH 🔴 If we drop back below, we risk triggering another cascading sell-off
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42% of signals lose money. And that’s perfectly fine. Real edges come with losing trades. If something wins 100% of the time, you’re probably only seeing the highlights. Drop your biggest trading red flag in the comments 👇
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Jensen Huang says AI is ushering in a “low IQ era” where children may no longer need to learn basic math.
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30Y TREASURY JUST HIT 5.4%. What it means for stocks? 📈 And stocks are still pretending nothing happened. Oil near $100, dollar at an 8-week high, markets pricing 64% odds of another October hike, yet Nasdaq is only ~1% off recent highs. That’s the interesting part 👇 AI earnings are currently strong enough to absorb higher rates. But if 10Y stays above 5% and 30Y keeps pushing higher, the discount-rate math eventually catches up. Especially for long-duration tech. ❗️ The next few weeks could tell us whether AI earnings can keep overpowering the bond market or whether bonds finally get their revenge.
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ANTHROPIC’S $2T PROBLEM Anthropic can grow revenue 5x and still struggle to justify a $2T valuation. The reason isn’t growth. It’s what happens to pricing power when frontier models start looking interchangeable.
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That’s what I’ll be watching around the IPO. Not whether Anthropic can hit another huge revenue number. The real test is whether it can turn that growth into durable margins before frontier models become a commodity. $2T needs more than explosive growth.
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ANTHROPIC’S $2T PROBLEM Anthropic can grow revenue 5x and still struggle to justify a $2T valuation. The reason isn’t growth. It’s what happens to pricing power when frontier models start looking interchangeable.
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