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As a $BTC bear since Nov 17, 2025, I am willing to concede that there is now a good chance the bottom could be in.
I had been expecting the likeliest outcome as a break down from the $62.3k level and it broke up instead. I got that wrong. I am therefore being quick to adjust my opinion since new data has presented itself.
We have a valid bottoming pattern (inverse Head and Shoulders) that broke out with strength and volume. We are 10 months into the bear market, which is a long time. BTC is now above the 200-day MA and above the long-term downtrending diagonal line (see the dotted line).
That being said, I'm still cautious about the coming few months. I think we could chop sideways during that time as it is still early in the bottoming process. IMO, it's likely we will retrace some of the recent move we've seen ($62.7k -> $72.5k), in the coming weeks/months.
Sentiment is quite excited at the moment and I view that more as a local topping indicator (I think we're close to exhaustion of this move). Also, it's only been ~2 days so far from the breakout, so it's good to watch what price action does (to see the weekly candle confirmation, etc.)
But will $BTC make new cycle lows? That's the key question. I am now viewing it as *less likely*, although not impossible. I currently give 70% odds the bottom is in at $57.8k.
Additionally, I am not chasing the price after such a big move as we've seen from $62.7k to $72.5k, and considering how early we are in the bottoming process. We are not in the euphoric final stages of a bull run where the price can keep ripping. This is the first potential move out of a bear market. Early stages.
KEY LEVEL
$67k, the neckline of the iH&S, is the new key support. I do think it will retest this level, at a minimum, later this year. That may be where I buy in more. All my sells were considerably higher, so this remains a profitable strategy.
STRATEGY MODIFICATION
I'm no longer waiting for $51k to re-buy back in with the last remaining 35% of my cash (see this post where you can see how I already have been DCAing back in, over the past few months: nitter.net/ColinTCrypto/status/20β¦)
The goal should never be to time the bottom perfectly as that's near-impossible. My goal is just to be generally early before the majority of the next bull run move occurs, and to be profitable with any sells I've made. Otherwise, my goal is just to hodl the majority of my BTC holdings.
HEATED DEBATE
I am aware this is a heated debate right now (whether the bottom is in or not), and I see some lashing out toxically when posts like this are made (most are non-verified members, interestingly, which is why I set this post to "only verified members can reply"). Thank you to the rest of you for being civil.
Markets are ever-evolving and one must be nimble and adjust, taking in new data. We all make forecasts, but no one can see the future. In the last few days we've had significant, new key data (the breakout of an iH&S with volume) and as such, I am quickly digesting this new data and making this updated opinion.
π³οΈ So, let it be stated that I pivoted from bearish to bullish on August 20, 2026. π³οΈ
I considered naming this post "Humble Pie".
[References] This is when I pivoted from bullish to bearish last year, around Nov 17th: nitter.net/ColinTCrypto/status/19β¦
nitter.net/ColinTCrypto/status/19β¦
nitter.net/ColinTCrypto/status/19β¦
$BTC broke out to $69.6k β
It jumped up by $5k in an hour!
IS THE BOTTOM IN??
Thatβs the big question on everyoneβs mind.
BTC climbed up to the 200-day MA, for the second touch of this moving average during the bear market. The previous time was May 2026 at $82k.
In past bear markets, this moving average has been tagged twice as well, and lower prices were still eventually reached. This is normal behavior. Does it mean it will happen again?
Bulls will state that past behavior isnβt a guarantee of future behavior, and thus, BTC won't go lower again this time, and the bottom is in. Could it be? Itβs possible, and increasingly so. I'm not saying they're wrong. The odds of bulls being wrong just went down. But I'm also not yet 100% convinced they are right. My confidence is a sliding scale-- not binary.
We are close enough, in time, to the final bottom zone that I wouldnβt rule out the bottom being in at this point. Furthermore, bitcoin has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a bottom pattern. BUT it's only a few hours into this pattern, and typical confirmation (to avoid fakeouts and deviations) should allow for the daily and even weekly candle closes. Because a bitcoin bear market is a multi-month process, longer time-frame candles are more reliable.
However! In past bear markets BTC has still gone lower in the months that follow, so itβs not a guaranteed celebration yet, imho. In terms of time, we are also a couple of months away from a typical cycle bottom. That's not the only way of measuring things though.
Ultimately, maybe we just get a re-test of the lows, rather than new lows. There are many possibilities for how this plays out.
The truth is-- there are many metrics and methods of analysis that go both ways (stating the bottom is in and stating the bottom is not in). This is because we are in the BOTTOMING ZONE-- we're getting CLOSE if the bottom isn't in already.
With a long enough investing time horizon we are close enough that it won't matter much.
My personal guess is that we still see the price drop back down, to the range lows at a minimum, within the next ~2 months. This is my guess, though. It gets more difficult to accurately predict when we get toward the actual bottom, as things get less definitive (it's easier to say the bottom is not in when we're further from it).
Money Speaks Louder Than Words. What Am I Actually Doing?
Iβve already allocated 42% of my cash back into BTC around the $60k-$62k level. This is me DCAing back in. I also allocated another 23% to a stock I feel very confident about ($ABCL) which recently doubled in price, much to my satisfaction. But I also continue to hold my last 35% portion of cash for further dip-buying opportunities in the 4-8 weeks to come.
One thing is for sure: we are in the final inning of the bear market (assuming there is some bear market remaining). I have never said it was wrong to begin DCAing from the low $60k range. Like I said: I, myself, *began* doing so between $60-$62k.
But rather than chase euphoric FOMO pump-candles (like we're seeing now), I think it's best to buy on *dips*.
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For those wondering what "ABCL" is, I talked about $ABCL (AbCellera) in a recent video for a minute or so, and I also made a post about it on X. Here's those two links.
X link to me first posting about ABCL:
nitter.net/ColinTCrypto/status/20β¦
YouTube link to me talking about ABCL at the 12:58 time stamp:
piped.video/0H4-XnVXYYU?si=1PTTβ¦
Just for the record I'm bullish on AI-biotech company $ABCL (@AbCelleraBio)
I'm bullish because:
- The company has incredible fundamentals that I think have been overlooked (meaning the company is undervalued imo). They've been cooking on their tech and vertical integration, while critics wrongly dismiss them as a sleeping giant or a relic of the pandemic era. This is the big mistake, imo.
- They have a fantastic team & very intelligent leadership (Carl Hansen is a big thinker and gives every indication of being a great leader).
- They are averse to share dilution.
- Biotech in general is a hot sector right now (most major biotech ETFs are breaking out, such as GNOM, IBB, XBI [SPDR S&P Biotech])
- ABCL's chart looks fantastic (see attached). From a TA-perspective, the chart has clearly bottomed, confirmed by the breakout of a massive, multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This foretells a big move ahead, assuming the right shoulder holds (that's the invalidation point-- around $2.90).
In crypto terms, this is like a rare altcoin that *actually* has strong fundamentals and isn't just a picture of a dog on a coin.
This is not a short-term hold for me. It's a multi-year hold, minimum, and maybe a decade-long hold. They have a drug called "ABCL635" that is close to its phase 2 results (see the vertical line I drew on the chart where I think this may be announced). If it's a success, this will be incredibly validating and positive for the company and price. If it fails then expect a big pull-back-- perhaps a drop of 50%. Even if this drug's phase 2 results are sub-par, the company still looks strong to me. The company is a powerful machine that is going to pump out drugs with innovative technology. This is all my opinion of course.
I'm aware this isn't crypto-related, so I won't frequently post about it, in order to keep my channel crypto-focused. But just thought I'd share that I like the company and I have a position in it.
Obviously this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I see here.
I noticed you are into biotech as well, @IncomeSharks. This is one of the hotter plays in the biotech sector-- if not the hottest-- imo.
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$BTC broke above the previous local high of $82.8K and made its first higher high.
As Iβve said since August 20 (even before the recent move above $82.8k), I think the bottom is likely in. The recent higher high *further* increases my confidence that the cycle low is in, up to an 85%.
BUT, what are the odds that BTC does *not* go below $82.8K ever again? That seems like pretty low odds to me.
That would be like saying the next higher LOW is going to somehow be above the previous higher HIGH. Extremely unlikely, imo.
Therefore, I do think we see a price somewhere between the cycle low of $57k and $80k again before the year is over. And the more likely range is $67k-$75k.
So for now, Iβm keeping my BTC buy limit order at $71.7k (with my final 25% remaining cash, as I already bought a lot around $62k) and I will watch what the market does. I will adjust that orderβs price up to a maximum of $75K, depending on how strong or weak BTC looks in the coming weeks.
Is there really anyone out there saying the next higher LOW is going to be ABOVE $82.8k and never visit below it again?
A higher low can be formed without making new lows. The low can still be in.
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$BTC makes a higher high at $85k, officially breaking the downtrend!
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Has bitcoin seen a higher high yet? (Above $82,800?)
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Yes
83%
No
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926 votes β’ Final results
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25 minutes until Fed's FOMC meeting with Warsh. Rate hike is 88.7% odds.
Probabilty lots of volatility surrounding this as usual.
Best to observe from sidelines and not get chopped up.
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$BTC 4-hour breakdown on CLARITY Act failure to progress.
Also rejected from 50-week MA.
Lower prices likely.
Target is approx $68k (inverse H&S breakout neckline)
Wait for daily candle close for higher degree of confidence/confirmation.
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Clarity Act fails to advance.
Letβs see where the price heads next. Perhaps the 200-day MA?
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.@Grok gives slim odds the CLARITY Act is enacted before the midterms
Tomorrow isn't the final vote-- it's just the "cloture vote" to see if the bill proceeds.
The House is leaving Washington in less than 3 days and they would have to vote on the newly modified bill again.
The timeline for getting everything done doesn't add up very well.
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RT @ColinTCrypto: .@Grok gives slim odds the CLARITY Act is enacted before the midterms
Tomorrow isn't the final vote-- it's just the "cloβ¦
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Iβm thinking thereβs likely a sell-off next week because:
- Oil prices surging
- No end of Iran war in sight
- Bond rates are soaring (bad indicator) [Bessent's efforts have remained futile]
- Fed will probably raise interest rates
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Volatile week ahead
Big week ahead for stocks and crypto π
Monday πΊπΈ
Markets reopen after AI leaders call for slower development.
Tuesday πΊπΈ
CLARITY Act procedural vote in the Senate.
Wednesday πΊπΈ
Fed interest rate decision.
Thursday π¬π§
Bank of England interest rate decision.
Friday π―π΅πΊπΈ
Japanβs CPI report, BOJ interest rate decision and quarterly U.S. options expiration.
Which event will move markets the most?
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