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Indiana Hoosiers -19.5 -120
Cignetti Will Be Prepared
If youāre siding with Northwestern, youāre going against Curt Cignetti at home on a Friday night. Letās dig into why I think this matchup favors Indiana.
Northwestern Defense
Northwestern has allowed just 18 points to South Dakota State and 7 to Colorado, but those scores donāt tell the full story. The Wildcats have generated pressure on only 26.9% of opposing dropbacks while allowing 147 and 180 rushing yards.
Colorado averaged 5.5 yards per carry last week but scored only 7 points because drives stalled. Julian Lewis finished 19-of-29 for 168 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs, despite Northwestern generating pressure on only 29.0% of his dropbacks. From a clean pocket, Lewis averaged just 6.7 YPA with a 29.8 PFF grade, with both INTs coming without pressure.
Thatās why Iām not treating Northwesternās low points allowed as proof of an elite defense. Teams have moved the ball, while poor QB play has helped keep points off the board.
Northwesternās defensive line is my biggest concern. Theyāve allowed runners to reach the 2nd level while giving QBs clean pockets. Thatās dangerous against Josh Hoover, Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh
Hoover owns a 91.0 PFF grade from a clean pocket while averaging 12.7 YPA. For comparison, Fernando Mendoza posted a 92.5 grade and 9.7 YPA when kept clean last season.
Northwestern will also be without DB Braden Turner, its highest-graded PFF defender and 3rd-leading tackler.
What I Expect
I expect Indiana to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Northwesternās inability to generate pressure is concerning. I expect Indiana to clear 30 points with a legitimate opportunity to reach 40+.
Northwestern Offense vs Indiana
Northwestern is playing its first road game on a short week in a sold-out environment against the defending national champions.
O-Line vs D-Line
Over the past 2 games, Indiana has generated 30 pressures on 61 dropbacks a 49.2% pressure rate. On 22 pressured attempts, opponents completed just 6 passes (27.3%).
Thatās a major concern because Aidan Chiles has been pressured on 40.3% of his dropbacks. Heās completed 9-of-14 for 171 yards under pressure this season, but thatās not sustainable.
At Michigan State last season, Chiles completed just 21 of 55 passes (38.2%) under pressure, averaged 5.9 YPA and earned a 31.6 PFF grade.
If Indiana continues generating pressure, Chiles will have trouble
Indiana Gets Better
Indiana is getting 2 important defensive linemen back.
DE Stephen Daley ā RETURNING: 19 TFL, 41 pressures and 5.5 sacks in 2025.
DL Kellan Wyatt ā RETURNING: 27 tackles, 8.5 TFL and 2.5 sacks in 7 games last season.
That strengthens a front already generating pressure at an elite rate.
Northwestern Receivers
Griffin Wilde is the clear standout with a 76.3 PFF grade and 8 catches for 189 yards (23.6 YPR). After Wilde, production drops. Drew Wagner has 5 catches for 59 yards, while Ricky Ahumaraeze has just 2 for 40.
If Indiana limits Wildeās explosives, Chiles may be forced to rely on receivers who havenāt consistently produced, especially under pressure.
Indiana starts 0-3 ATS while Northwestern enters 2-0, which I believe has helped keep this spread at only 19.5.
The matchup heavily favors Indiana. Chiles faces a defensive front generating pressure at an absurd rate, while his offensive line has struggled to protect him. Hoover should have a cleaner pocket, and Indiana should find running lanes against a defense that has allowed 147+ rushing yards in both games.
Indiana has significant matchup advantages on both sides, and I think this game has the potential to get out of hand quickly
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