I’m not arguing that pitching velocity hasn’t increased. It has. I’m arguing that we’re leaving out another major part of the equation: what players are being incentivized to optimize for has changed.
Luis Arraez is a great example. He’s won 3 batting titles and has elite bat-to-ball skills. But he doesn’t hit a ton of home runs, doesn’t provide huge slugging numbers, and isn’t a major stolen-base threat. Despite being one of the best pure contact hitters in baseball, he’s moved around multiple organizations.
Now imagine that same type of player 30-40 years ago, when hitting .300 or .330 was one of the first things people talked about when evaluating a great hitter. I think that skill set would’ve been viewed very differently.
Players adapt to what the game rewards.
If teams suddenly started giving $700 million contracts to guys who hit .330, even if they only hit 5–10 home runs, do we really think player development and hitting approaches wouldn’t start changing?
Of course they would. Remember, these are the best players in the world.
Their ability to adjust and adapt is part of why they reached that level.
And we can see the exact same thing with pitchers.
Organizations showed pitchers that velocity has tremendous value. So pitchers started optimizing for velocity. Training changed. Development changed. Guys started chasing 95, 97, 100+ because velocity creates opportunities and value.
If organizations suddenly placed a much bigger premium on crafty pitchers who commanded multiple pitches and lived on the corners, development would shift toward optimizing those skills too.
Hitters aren't any different.
Today we emphasize OBP, SLG, OPS, exit velocity and damage. So hitters are going to optimize for those outcomes and accept certain tradeoffs that come with them.
So I’m not saying increased velocity has had zero effect on batting average.
Of course better velocity and pitching make hitting more difficult.
What I’m saying is you can't explain the evolution of hitting by only looking at what pitchers are doing. You also have to look at what hitters are being rewarded for doing.
Pitchers adapted to what the game values. Hitters adapted to what the game values.
The players didn't suddenly forget how to play baseball.
The game changed what it rewards, and the best players in the world adapted to those rewards
Why are batting averages down in professional baseball? This is my son this summer hitting in High-A. Notice the mph of each pitch. Mind you, this wasn’t uncommon all summer for these hitters to see. I pitched professionally 25 years ago. This type of arm was 1/1,000,000🦄