Owner, IndiciaDesk. Live Deribit BTC/ETH options + Hyperliquid whales. OI, gamma flip, DVOL, liquidations. Public journal — not signals. indiciadesk.com
Deribit · Hyperliquid
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The 35x bitcoin long we tracked on Hyperliquid closed itself last night. No liquidation fill, only its own orders. Its account fell from $2.4M to $0.39M in a day with zero withdrawals, so the loss came from trading, not a forced exit. Radar: indiciadesk.com/en/radar/202…
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ETH vol just dropped to its calmest 3% of the year. Part 2 of my ETH bet starts now.
Our research says calm is when insurance pays most, which is why $1.5K of my $4K profit goes into puts and 10K into Dec calls.
Part 1: nitter.net/CryptHypoBuster/status…
Day 34 of the ETH replay, and the plan is on script. Closed the near leg at 2,753: sold the 25 Sep 2500 calls and, to leave nothing naked, bought back the 52 short 2850s those calls covered. So the event structure came off in one move.
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Ten times the previous record: one trader moved $139M on Deribit to keep a bitcoin call bet alive until October. They sold these calls for $5.2M in August, and closing them last night cost $68.4M. So the bet runs on, and we watch it daily.
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Nobody knew anything: yesterday's 9,000 ETH puts expired worthless and $84K went to zero. Ether settled at 2,671 this morning and the lowest it got was 2,628, so the 2,600 strike stayed out of reach all night. The $100M long at 25x survived too.
Anomalous ETH put buying: 9,000 contracts in six minutes, the biggest bet on a dump by tomorrow in 100 days. They only pay if ether drops 2% by Friday morning, so the answer comes fast. Does someone know something? We're watching closely: indiciadesk.com/en/whales?s=…
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Two Hyperliquid whales have bitcoin pinned between them: a $87.7M long at 35x, liquidation 1% below price, and a $41.9M short at 40x, 2.1% above. So a small move either way forces one out. The long is the one we wrongly called closed yesterday. Radar: indiciadesk.com/en/radar/202…
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Anomalous ETH put buying: 9,000 contracts in six minutes, the biggest bet on a dump by tomorrow in 100 days. They only pay if ether drops 2% by Friday morning, so the answer comes fast. Does someone know something? We're watching closely: indiciadesk.com/en/whales?s=…
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Yesterday afternoon a Hyperliquid whale grew a bitcoin long to $120M on a $3.6M account. By night it was gone, and not by liquidation. Almost $500M of whale positions left bitcoin in a day, so the fragile longs we flagged went first. Today's radar: indiciadesk.com/en/radar/202…
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The record sale of 32,721 ETH calls on Deribit came right before today's drop. It closed a July long for +$8.7M, then sold 4,000 more calls at 1,900 to 2,800. So the seller keeps $2.5M if ether stays under 3,000 into March. The whole trade:
indiciadesk.com/en/investiga…
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$69.1M collected, and not once did they have to be right about price. Two Hyperliquid wallets buy the coin on spot and short its perpetual in the same second. So direction cancels between the legs and the funding stays. New investigation: indiciadesk.com/en/investiga…
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Today's radar is out. Hyperliquid BTC whales split by leverage, not by view: 39 wallets at 8x or more hold $349M long against $98M short, while 43 wallets below 8x hold $695M short against $35M long. So the thinnest margins carry the bullish side: indiciadesk.com/en/radar/202…
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Day 32 of the ETH replay: the spike came on schedule, 5% so far against 14% last year. Vol got bid into it, DVOL 50 to 54. So I sold 99 of the 25 Sep 2850 calls, all covered: the straddle is now a 2500/2850 call spread, the March call a diagonal. $2.1k in.
Today is day 23 since ETH reclaimed 2,500. Last year the dip came on day 43. So my 30k plan works for either path: a March call with no liquidation price, a reserve for the dip, a straddle for Fed week. Every payoff and the ceiling on the loss are inside.
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Closed this one today at 2,753. The long 2500 call went out and the 52 short 2850s it was covering came back in, so nothing was left naked: 3,025 booked, ten days from entry. So the event trade is done, the March call runs on. Full account:
Day 34 of the ETH replay, and the plan is on script. Closed the near leg at 2,753: sold the 25 Sep 2500 calls and, to leave nothing naked, bought back the 52 short 2850s those calls covered. So the event structure came off in one move.
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Day 34 of the ETH replay, and the plan is on script. Closed the near leg at 2,753: sold the 25 Sep 2500 calls and, to leave nothing naked, bought back the 52 short 2850s those calls covered. So the event structure came off in one move.
Day 32 of the ETH replay: the spike came on schedule, 5% so far against 14% last year. Vol got bid into it, DVOL 50 to 54. So I sold 99 of the 25 Sep 2850 calls, all covered: the straddle is now a 2500/2850 call spread, the March call a diagonal. $2.1k in.
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That is 31% in ten days. Annualised it prints over a thousand percent, which is exactly why nobody quotes an options trade that way. So we log it as one closed trade and move on.
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A beacon fired on Event Sentinel during the ether dump.
I sized Sep 25 $2,600 calls plus a 15-delta put sleeve, then sold the calls near $2,753.
Call marks +$66,663. Net after the hedge +$64,667.
Constructions beat headlines. Not financial advice.
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Full write-up in the Article.
Event Sentinel: indiciadesk.com/en/event-sen…
Analyst: indiciadesk.com/en/pricing?s…
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A billion landed in BTC ETFs in one day.
The biggest Hyperliquid short house still added size and wired in about $88M of margin.
Funds buy the coin. This house bets the rally burns out.
Two smart-money camps. Price settles which one is wrong.
indiciadesk.com/en/radar?s=x…
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