FOMC today : here’s my plan before the decision
September 16, 2:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM Cotonou.
The market is largely pricing in a 25 bp hike toward 3.75–4.00%. For me, the hike itself isn’t the trade. The real question is what the SEP and dot plot imply for the path after today.
I’m keeping two names on my watchlist:
$NVDA : ~$215
Key area:
Current: ~$215
Demand: $211
Supply: $220–222
Bullish trigger: hold + reclaim
Invalidation: loss of $208
$TSLA: ~$360
Key area: $355–365, with $351 as the level I don't want to see reclaimed on a failed setup.
My plan is simple:
If we get a hold / dovish reaction:
I’ll wait for the initial volatility to settle, then look for a long only if NVDA holds $211 on a retest. First target: $220–222.
Same idea on TSLA: I want the structure to hold, not chase the first spike.
If we get a hawkish hike + a more restrictive SEP/dot plot:
I’m not chasing the downside either. If yields accelerate and growth stocks lose their structure, I’d rather stay flat than force a trade.
No trade before the decision. The first candle is noise until proven otherwise.
Risk: 0.75% max if I take a setup.
I’m also watching ethereum:0x68749665ff8d2d112fa859aa293f07a622782f38 and crypto during the same window. That’s one reason I use Bitget for these events: I can monitor the reaction across stocks, crypto and other markets from the same platform instead of treating the FOMC as an equities-only event. Bitget also supports 24/7 trading on a growing list of U.S. stocks, including NVDA and TSLA.
This is the first entry in my Sept. 16–22 trade journal.
The setup matters, but the reaction matters more.
I’m not trading the Fed decision. I’m trading what the market does with it.