Yesterday, I made the decision to sell all of my Bitcoin and Altcoins as I feel data has grown exhausted, which has shifted my perspective from bullish to bearish. I sold my Bitcoin at $112,596.64 I sold my Ethereum at $4,500.82 I have been holding both coins from these prices since November 2022 with no buys or sales in between: Bitcoin: $16,558.55 Ethereum: $1,196.79 I believe the cycle top has already occurred as of August 2025 at 124k. This won't be a popular opinion, just as it wasn't when I did the same thing in April 2021. Will it be right? I have no idea. I am content with my decision and happy with my profits. The full details of my decision are in my latest newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/crypto…

Here's a comparison worth considering: 2015 vs 2026 A similar story. Bear Market downtrend broken to the upside, and even a higher high made in July 2015. And yet, a new low was made in August 2015. By all accounts, the bear market was completely over after Jan 2015, even according to the Halving Cycles Theory. I remain confident that Nov 2026- Jan 2027 will bring a signifcant low, even if that does not best 58k of June 2026.

Ok CryptoCon, so now is the 4 year cycle dead? Sorry, not until after Nov - Jan can we determine if there's been a major cycle change. I am now open to the idea of the cycle bottom being a higher low, which I would not count as a win for the Halving Cycles Theory. The window for the cycle bottom is strictly November 2026 - January 2027. In the case of a higher low, it's likely that cycle timing has finally left shifted. If that were true, it'd put the next cycle top around April - June 2029 instead of October - December 2029. There are still avenues for the cycle to remain fully on track as well, if the current move ends up reversing and market structure does not firmly change. Even if 60k was the ultimate low, it doesn't mean I think everything is gunning for ATHs. Here are my current approach and thoughts: Not invested, not interested in investing currently, still waiting on a better opportunity whether that be a higher low, equal low, or even still, a lower low than 60k. "Everyone's waiting on that! You'll be sidelined!" That's fine. It's important to me to match my personal criteria rather than hop in because I'm scared of missing out.

There must be a limit to every idea, and now mine has been reached. Can't say I didn't try to stick it out for cycle timing! So, I was wrong that the bear market would continue, and I did not buy the lows at 60k. Market structure looks well on track to confirm a higher high, to reverse the downtrend into an uptrend. I am not rushing to buy in here. I will still wait for a better opportunity. And of course, I'm still hoping that somehow the cycle finds its way back to a low in November–January, but at this point, I am marking that as wishful thinking. There were plenty of bottom signals, and even bull market start signals, that I ignored in favor of traditional cycle timing and the completion of even more cycle bottom data. Fortunately, the system I use is still very much alive and well; I just didn't respect it this time. I am still sidelined in crypto, but I have a varied stock portfolio bought at the crypto lows that is doing well. My focus is now on readjusting cycle expectations and figuring out what prices we can expect next for both Bitcoin and altcoins for the remainder of the year. Wrong, but optimistic!

The pressure is on as Bitcoin makes yet another attempt at 82k. So the question is, "CryptoCon, when will you give it up and admit the bull market is here?" Never! .... In all seriousness, the most important bull/bear threshold for me would be a change in price structure: a clear break above 83k to make a higher high, followed by a higher low. At that point, my main focus would be observation to discover new cycle dynamics. With that being said, my trust in the cycle remains. Let's continue to watch what price action has in store for us!

3 Week Ulcer Index is still in "one move from cycle bottom territory". My theory remains that less cycle top data will need to trigger each cycle for the cycle top, and more cycle bottom data will need to trigger.

Long-term holders are moving back in the right direction. Raw long-term holder data shows that these investors are finally getting more interested in buying. Strength levels are now back near cycle-bottom levels, as opposed to the near-cycle-top levels we saw not long ago. I still want to see some blue for the cycle bottom (the long-term holder metric going oversold)

I've brought back the original Magic Bands. The performance has been as great as ever since the cycle top. The idea with this model is that a break above or below a primary band (the darker ones that are labeled) generates a move to the next. Well, level 2 (blue) was broken, and we have not seen a retest of level 1 (yellow) at now 52k. If level 1 were not retested, this would be one of the only times that's happened outside of June 2014 and July 2021. Level 2 is still resistance. On this model, the cycle top and bottom bands are made to contract. So, what once was the cycle bottom band in 2022 (red) should be lost this cycle. Bitcoin is at important resistance on many price measures and metrics.

Looks like the Money Flow Index is primed and ready to form the 4th phase (cycle bottom) in the coming months. Right on time!

The Simple Bands are another place Bitcoin is finding resistance, with a tap of the midline. This is the second resistance retest of the midline this bear market. 44k is now the cycle bottom target for this model. Across my models, there are 3 main improtant cycle bottom levels: 50k, mid 40ks, low 30ks. Mid-40ks is what has been most likely to me and that's still true. However, as with any price target, I am remaining very flexible. It's always best to not get locked in at a certain price.

In my last post with this chart before my sale in August 2025, I expressed confidence in reaching layer 7. Obviously, ultimately, I changed my mind as it became clear layer 6 was an important resistance point and other metrics were showing signs of caution nitter.net/CryptoCon_/status/1955…

Bull confidence crescendoed into 82k, only to be smacked down. This comes as Fisher Transform finds important resistance at the top of the bear market wedge. No bull market here until it's broken to the upside, and it's been extremely good at catching the start of the bull market early. I have not, and still will not change my mind that the bear market is not complete according to regular cycle timing (November - January), even further long term cycle bottom data completion, and the correct psychology.

Still, one of the most interesting things going on in data is long-term holders. People will use ETFs or the cold card hacks as an excuse, but I don't think either explains the recent massive surge to short-term holder bias. The strength metric barely missed reaching high long- term holder levels (blue), and we are now at the same levels of short-term holders as previous cycle tops and other major highs. So, extract from that what you will, but nonetheless it is very fascinating.

Bear Market progress, according to average time, is at 84%. "Since we're so close, why can't the cycle bottom already be in?" Looking back at other August/Septembers in bear markets, you could have asked the same question. Only in hindsight do we know that price went lower. Pressure is high to accept that the bull market is here. While I could easily come up with a host of evidence as to why that's true, it would also mean these things: - the cycle is broken - the bottom was obvious and "everyone" was right - the cycle bottom data that hasn't been fufilled will not be And maybe that's how it is this time around, but that's not what I'll be betting on.

Is it a coincidence that the Halving Cycles Theory bear market is not over and there's still a huge gap before accurate metrics like this NUPL wedge reach their cycle bottom levels? Or maybe, despite a seemingly bullish move, this is still not the end of the bear market. My confidence in the cycle is unchanged.

The cycle bottom target of the Golden Ratio Multiplier is getting more agressive by the week, now at 31k. That number also appears with the Magic Bands. For a while, I've felt that target, even though "would have been hit in previous cycles," is too harsh. Although, not out of the question. Hitting level 2 again on the other hand, seems very plausible which is currently at 50k. The most popular target for accurate moving averages remains low to mid 40ks. Bitcoin is also now running into resistance at level 3 (81k).

If the cycle bottom were in, there were a lot of people who called it! Even if by brute force of claiming every low was the cycle bottom. I'm updating the latest high on the calendar of the masses to "Bull market is back", which from my perspective, is what most people are thinking. Again, to bet with the cycle now and say the bear market is not over and the cycle bottom will still be at the end of the year has become a very unpopular opinion. That doesn't automatically mean the opposite will be true, but the popular opinion does have a great counter-indicator track record.