No need to overcomplicate things here with predictions and narratives.
Bitcoin just had a massive breakout.
That makes things really simple.
Above $76k -> Bull. 🐂
Below $76k -> Bear. 🐻
Anything else -> Noise. 🫡
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Bitcoin is still in the Cheap 🟢 region.
It also just got a weekly close above its 50W MA.
This combination usually occurs at the start of bull markets.
There will be volatility along the way, but this is exactly what we want to see. 😎
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We got our False Breakdown 🔵 at the range low. ✅
We got our Breakout 🟢 at the range high. ✅
We are about to get our close above the 50W MA 🟠. ⏳
The strength we have been talking about for months is becoming hard to ignore. 😎
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The GLI continues to trend higher.
25bps rate hikes here and there are short-term noise.
The debt situation leaves the FED with only one long-term option.
Dollar debasement.
Nothing stops this train. 🫡
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Bitcoin is still in the Cheap 🟢 region.
I know there are a lot of scary narratives out there.
But that's always the case during the best buying opportunities.
When in doubt, just zoom out. 🤝
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Looks like the Shallow Bear Base Case wasn't so crazy after all.
Weak assets do not consolidate right below the 50W MA like Bitcoin is right now.
There's always a chance a surprise takes us lower.
But this chart looks like it wants to head higher. 🤝
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The liquidity backdrop continues to look quite different here in 2026.
In 2022, 2018 and 2014 liquidity was tightening.
Here in 2026, liquidity has continued to expand.
Bitcoin's resilience makes a lot more sense given that difference. 🤝
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Every Green August in Bitcoin's history has been followed by a red September.
That doesn't mean that it has to happen again.
But it does mean we should be mentally prepared for it.
Base case is that any pullbacks create a higher low before we head higher. 🫡
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Bitcoin is still maintaining its Range Breakout. 🟢
Bias remains to the upside as long as it holds $76k.
The bears are putting up a fight at the 50W MA for now.
But so far they haven't really been able to do much. 🤝
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The GLI continues to make new highs.
This is the ideal backdrop for Bitcoin.
The already low likelihood of new lows continues to shrink.
Most investors just haven't realized it yet. 🤝
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Bulls and Bears continue their battle here at the 50W MA.
If bears win, I look forward to buying more in the Cheap 🟢 or Very Cheap 🔵 regions.
If bulls win, I look forward to taking profits in the Fair Value 🟡 region.
Can't go wrong being prepared for multiple outcomes. 😎
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The likelihood of the Shallow Bear scenario continues to increase.
If we were to get a low in October, it will likely be a higher low.
Feels good knowing we were well prepared for this base case. 🤝
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Market sentiment has cooled off a bit ever since we hit Extreme Greed.
Exactly what we want to see. 🤝
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Bitcoin is still maintaining its range breakout for now.
The 50W MA is putting up a good fight though.
Will be interesting to see who wins between bulls and bears in the short-term. 🤔
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The GLI is still consolidating at the highs.
It isn't surprising that Bitcoin has shown strength given that backdrop.
I expect more and more investors to wake up to this reality in the coming weeks. 🤝
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Feels good knowing we accumulated in the Very Cheap 🔵 region.
Anyone who didn't now has to wonder if they missed their chance.
That's why we take advantage of good opportunities while we have them.
Never let perfect be the enemy of good. 🤝
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The likelihood of our Shallow Bear base case has skyrocketed after this recent move.
We spent months talking about accumulating at good prices because great prices aren't guaranteed.
Now we are getting rewarded for taking advantage of those good prices while we had them. 🤝
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Looks like the liquidity expansion we are seeing here in 2026 does matter to Bitcoin after all. 🤔
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