๐คGE PEOPLE๐ค
A billion apologies for my absence! ๐
The vacation is still going on โ Iโm taking some time to recharge and build up the energy for whatโs coming next.
From the 15th, weโre getting back to full power and starting to BOMB again. ๐
Until then, I wish everyone good luck, good trades, and most importantly โ stay safe out there.
Below are some of my thoughts on the current market.
No financial advice here. Weโre simply looking at probabilities, scenarios, and historical patterns โ nothing more.
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### Bitcoin: Is $57.7K Really the Bottom?
For now, $57,736 remains the lowest point of Bitcoinโs current cycle, representing roughly a 54% drawdown from the cycle high.
At first glance, that may look like a significant correction. But when we compare it with previous Bitcoin cycles, the current decline still looks relatively modest.
To put it into perspective, if the previous cycle had ended after a similar 54% decline, Bitcoin would have bottomed around $31K in 2022 instead of falling all the way to approximately $15K.
This is why I donโt think a deeper correction should be considered something extraordinary.
A move down to around $43K, representing a 65% decline, or even $37K, representing roughly a 70% decline, would still be within the range of historical Bitcoin bear-market drawdowns.
Could this cycle be different?
Absolutely.
It is entirely possible that $57.7K was the final bottom and that Bitcoinโs market structure has changed enough to prevent another major 70โ80% drawdown.
But for now, that would be an exception compared with previous cycles.
The market still has to prove it.
For me, the important thing is not to predict the exact bottom, but to understand the probabilities and be prepared for different scenarios.
Letโs see what the next few months bring.
Stay safe. Stay patient. And good luck to everyone. ๐ซก