Fed Outlook β September 16, 2026
Decision: 2:00 PM ET | Press Conference: 2:30 PM ET
I expect a 25-basis-point hike, with the door left open to further increases. Inflation and energy pressures make a reassuring message difficult to deliver.
But the hike is largely priced in. The updated rate projections and press conference will determine the path: a pause to reassess, or rates staying higher for longer than markets expect?
My bias is toward initial pressure on equities, particularly if 2-year Treasury yields rise. Falling yields alongside a less hawkish message could instead trigger a relief rallyβeven with a hike.
The first move may not be the one that lasts.