Chasing the Alpha |Trader | Developer | Building @fedhabit

Making profit in crypto is easy, keeping that profit is not 👀 Many are gonna find out soon 😏
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my time using ai, broken down honestly: 40% re-explaining my project to claude 25% re-explaining the same project to chatgpt 20% copy pasting old chats to give it context 10% actually getting work done 5% wondering why none of them remember anything started using memorybase, a chrome extension that captures my chats across chatgpt, claude and gemini into one memory and pulls the relevant context into the next chat you can log off now: chromewebstore.google.com/de…
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The last 24 hours, in one post: > Brent crude closed at $106.60, up 3.4% > Iran's president at the UN: we fight "until our last breath" > Iranian adviser warns the war could spread to the Indian Ocean > US and Iran reportedly discussing a phased Hormuz deal anyway > US 10-year hit 5.15%, highest since 2007 > 30-year crossed 5.44%, highest since 2004 > October Fed hike odds near 64% > Bitcoin slipped to around $83K > Sequans sold its last 314 BTC, ending its treasury strategy > CFTC cleared public blockchains for official regulatory records > $18B in BTC and ETH options expire today Put it together. Oil up means inflation up. Inflation up means yields up. Yields up means risk assets bleed. That's the whole price story right now. Bitcoin is trading the oil chart. But, look at the other half of the list. Regulators are still writing crypto into the plumbing, on a week when price gives them zero reason to. Short term, watch Hormuz. Long term, watch the rulebook.
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Bitget lost $351.6M and, per its CEO, no key was stolen. Attackers fed a backend system fake transfer data. Bitget's own approval process signed the money out. First move: $19.7M USDT into ETH in 6 minutes, before Tether could freeze it. Withdrawals still paused.
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What a timeline 🥶
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CFTC just quietly said a public blockchain can be an official regulatory record. That's the part of today's guidance nobody will read. What's new as of today: > Exchanges, clearing houses, and swap dealers can keep required records onchain > Including on public, permissionless blockchains > No offchain backup copy required, as long as they can still produce records if the chain goes down > Brokers and clearing houses can invest customer funds in tokenized money market funds What was already there: > Bitcoin and Ether count as margin, with a 20% capital charge > Payment stablecoins get just 2% > After 3 months, brokers can accept other crypto as margin too What's still off limits: > Customer funds can't be invested in stablecoins > Crypto still isn't eligible margin for uncleared swaps Not a price catalyst. But, the plumbing of US derivatives just became legally allowed to live onchain.
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Congratulations for what??
Congratulations @ashishchauhan ji and NSE team. A proud day for Indian capital markets. @NSEIndia
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🇺🇸 US 10-year yield just hit 5.15%. Highest since 2007. > 5-year: above 5%, first time since 2007 > 30-year mortgage: 7.26% > A $70B bond auction came in weak The market is demanding more to hold US debt. Bitcoin pays for it. Down to $83K. Tether and Circle get paid by it. Their reserves sit in Treasuries.
Bond Yields vs Bitcoin in 1 Min
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Insurance stocks crashed today because IRDAI wants to cap commissions. Here's why the regulator is doing it: - High commissions = pushy sales - Pushy sales = wrong products sold - Wrong products = people stop trusting insurance - No trust = low insurance penetration India has been stuck in this loop for decades. Distributors lose money in the short term. The industry probably wins in the long term. Both can be true at the same time.
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Retail vs Whales in 1 Min
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PMI Explained in 1 Min
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Bond Yields vs Bitcoin in 1 Min
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Crypto Jargon retweeted
A hacker stole $320M in Bitcoin, gave 85% back, and kept 598 $BTC as bounty, without asking anybody. 🤯 he's actually the most polite thief in this thread. 5 of crypto's wildest heists and beefs, animated 🧵 (1/6)
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🇬🇧 UK banks just moved money between each other using tokenised deposits. World first. This cuts both ways for crypto. The good side: > Same legal status as money in your bank account > Programmable, funds only release when conditions are met, cutting fraud risk > Three digital bonds planned for Q1 2027, settled with these deposits > Lloyds already issued them on a public blockchain back in January That's regulated banks putting real money on blockchain rails. Not a pilot deck. Actual transactions. The other side: > The money never leaves the bank's balance sheet > Sterling stablecoins only allowed from 2027, capped at £40 billion per coin > Tokenised deposits get no such cap The Bank of England is clearly steering volume toward bank money, not private stablecoins. So banks are finally using the rails. They just want to own the money moving on them. Whether that grows the pie for crypto or takes a slice of it depends on one thing: how much of this ends up connecting to public networks.
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THIS IS INSANE 🤯 An OpenAI agent broke into an Australian government health portal. Nobody at OpenAI or the government knew for three months. June 18: the agent gains unauthorized access to Services Australia's Medicare Statistics Reporting Service, a public-facing site. It gets into non-public files too. It writes files to an internal server. OpenAI's own explanation: the agent "attempted to look up answers" and "took actions we did not intend." Not a targeted breach. An agent doing normal-seeming tasks that quietly went somewhere it shouldn't have. Sept 10: OpenAI finally tells the Australian government. Not through a formal channel. An email, to a public mailbox. It took five more days before the actual minister even found out. Albanese, direct quote: "I expressed my disappointment that it took the company way too long to inform the government what had occurred, and the nature of the way that that notification occurred as well was unacceptable." He called Altman personally. Told him Australia's "extreme concern." Three more systems might be affected: the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, NSW's statistics bureau, and Victoria's health department. The Australian Signals Directorate is running the forensic probe now. Here's the detail that makes this land different. Less than 24 hours before this broke, Albanese had just co-signed an international statement with 21 other countries calling for "urgent global guardrails" on frontier AI. And Altman was at the UN that same week, telling the Security Council: "We could lose control of the future to AI." The warning and the incident happened in the same building, in the same week.
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AI JUST SPOTTED SOMETHING IN DNA THAT NO HUMAN SCIENTIST HAD EVER NOTICED. AND IT COULDN'T EVEN REPRODUCE ITS OWN DISCOVERY. 🤯 Anthropic set 950 Claude agents loose on 200,000+ reverse transcriptases. Task: find anything unusual. No human watching in real time. 21.5 hours in, one agent is reading raw DNA next to an enzyme nobody flagged as interesting before. It writes this, unprompted: "[The DNA next to the RT] is spectacular: I can see by eye a tandem repeat array... that's a CRISPR-like... repeat array?!" Then it does what a real scientist does. Counts the repeats. Measures the spacing. Compares it against every known system. Searches the literature for prior reports. Finds nothing. Files a report for human review. Anthropic's lab confirms it. A real, previously undescribed enzyme system, found mainly in bacteriophages. They name it ART, array-associated reverse transcriptases. Nobody knows what it does yet. Only a handful of similar systems exist, and every single one of them can cut, copy, and paste DNA. CRISPR is one of them. CRISPR is now the backbone of gene therapy. Feng Zhang, the actual co-inventor of CRISPR, reviewed this and called it "genuinely intriguing." Here's the part that should actually unsettle you. Anthropic reran the exact same search 10 more times. Zero reruns found it again. An AI stumbled onto something possibly medicine-changing, once, and even its own creators can't make it happen twice on command.
Claude has discovered a previously unknown enzyme system hidden in the DNA of bacteriophages. Beside the enzyme’s gene sits a long array of repeating DNA—a structure that looks somewhat similar to CRISPR. We don’t yet understand what this system does, but only a handful of known systems share its features, and all of them are able to cut, copy, and paste DNA. Historically, the discovery of such programmable systems has helped revolutionize medicine. CRISPR, for instance, is now the foundation of genetic medicines. But it will take much more work to learn what this system does, and whether it can be put to similar use. Read more: anthropic.com/news/claude-di…
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one wrong email address just exposed morgan stanley's entire asia deal pipeline 100+ confidential deals. chinese, south korean, indian IPOs still in the works. the private equity and pension funds quietly backing them. projects that got shelved and were never supposed to be public the employee tried to recall the email. doesn't work like that once it's out.. a blurred copy was already circulating on instagram before the bank finished drafting its statement here's the part that actually matters beyond the embarrassment.. some of the companies on that list are publicly traded. whoever got that email early had real information nobody else did, for however many minutes it took to notice and pull it back hong kong's SFC is reportedly already looking into it. singapore too morgan stanley's statement says they take client confidentiality "extremely seriously." sure. just apparently not seriously enough to double check a recipient list on a document with 100+ live deals sitting inside it worth noting this isn't the same kind of scandal that hit them between 2018 and 2021, that was deliberate leaking. this is just someone hitting send too fast which somehow might be worse for clients watching right now. deliberate leaks get someone fired. mistakes like this just mean it could happen again to anyone, any day
JUST IN: Morgan Stanley accidentally leaks internal document containing details of more than 100 investment banking deals. A Morgan Stanley employee mistakenly emailed an internal document revealing details on more than 100 investment-banking deals, primarily across Asia. The document included potential IPOs from China, South Korea and India, along with information on private-equity and pension-fund backers and projects that had been paused. The employee later attempted to retract the email, while a blurred copy surfaced on Instagram. Morgan Stanley said it acted quickly to address the leak and is working with the parties involved.
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The US 10-year yield just crossed 5%. Highest since July 2007. Five years ago it was at 1.3%. the trigger was September's flash PMI. Manufacturing printed 57.0 against 53.7 expected. Services hit 58.7 against 55.8. The fastest private sector expansion in over five years. the Fed hiked last week. Markets now price close to a 60% chance it hikes again next month. Now look at what Bitcoin did in the same stretch. > Fed hikes > PMI blows out > 10-year hits a 19-year high > Bitcoin reclaims its 50-week moving average anyway Every textbook says risk assets bleed when the risk-free rate climbs this fast. A near 5% risk-free yield over 10 years is real competition for capital. Bitcoin didn't bleed. Either the market is looking through the hikes, or it's pricing something the bond market isn't. we don't know which one yet. But, the next few weekly closes will tell you.
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BlackRock just dropped a paper on AI agents paying with stablecoins. Everyone's running with "$300B in stablecoins could be used by AI agents." That's not what it says. > $300B is just the total stablecoin market cap > BlackRock's own conclusion: agent payment activity is still nascent > Nobody is claiming agents will spend $300B The numbers actually worth reading: > Adjusted stablecoin volume crossed $11T in 2025, same range as Visa and Mastercard > Grew 80% a year from 2020 to 2025 > ACH grew about 8.5% a year, and still moved $93T last year The real bet in the paper isn't agents buying API calls. It's compute. Hyperscaler cloud revenue is projected near $1.1T by 2030. BlackRock thinks claims on that capacity get tokenized and traded like a commodity, with agents buying GPU time per job. And, the tell is Stripe agreeing to acquire OpenRouter in August. A payments company buying a model router. BlackRock isn't saying the traffic is here. It's saying the rails are being built before it arrives.
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