🚨 $NEAR UPDATE — TARGETS HIT | APPROX. +150% ON MY LEVERAGED POSITION 🎯 From the setup shared in advance to the follow-up confirming the bounce—the entire plan is documented in my previous two posts. ✅ Pullback into the highlighted $4.17–$4.27 area ✅ W-shaped reversal and breakout ✅ $4.80 target reached ✅ $5.00 cleared—with price now around $5.10 NEAR followed the route I outlined beautifully. My entry gave me no uncomfortable drawdown, and the move delivered approximately 150% on the margin committed to my trade in just two days. What makes this particularly satisfying is that it happened while the broader market was largely sideways or under pressure. I very rarely use leverage. This time, I used my liquidation-map estimates to identify a potential bottoming zone and calibrate the leverage and margin buffer around the setup. That was calculated risk management—not a guarantee against liquidation. The levels, the scenario and the execution were all shared along the way. A return many traders would be delighted to achieve in a year, delivered here in two days through mathematics, patience and disciplined execution. Now it’s time to enjoy the result and wait patiently for the next opportunity. 😎

Daily Summary — September 25, 2026 Today gave us a very interesting stress test. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached: 5.2297% — the highest since 2007. And yet: Bitcoin held around $84K. S&P 500 +0.51% Nasdaq +0.48% Dow +0.93%. That resilience matters. Bitcoin is still holding above the main breakout structure despite one of the most aggressive bond repricings we have seen in years. My map remains simple: $83–84K → near-term defense $82–83K → breakout support $80K → major structural support Above: $85K → first reclaim $87–88K → local supply/liquidity $90K → next psychological battle The institutional picture remains strong. Final U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows for September 24 were approximately: +$191M That makes six consecutive inflow sessions totaling roughly +$2.84 BILLION. Even more interesting: Earlier this year, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs had fallen to roughly −$5.8B YTD net flows. They have now recovered to approximately: +$800M YTD. So BTC pulled back from $87K. Treasury yields exploded higher. The Fed turned hawkish. And ETF investors kept buying. That distinction matters. The derivatives structure also looks healthier than it did at the top of Monday’s squeeze. Open interest has been reduced and funding is near neutral/low-positive. So this no longer looks like an extremely crowded leveraged-long structure. Macro provided some relief today. Brent: −2.1% WTI: −2.3% U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased path out of the war that could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But there is no final deal yet. Iran says Hormuz will remain closed until all of its conditions are met and says it will make no concessions on its nuclear rights. So: **Diplomatic probability ↑ Oil risk premium ↓ Final agreement: NOT DONE.** The Fed remains the main macro risk. Markets are pricing roughly a 71% probability of another October hike. There was no major new dovish signal from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today. This week’s message remains hawkish. And this is why I am watching the bond market even more closely than BTC right now. AI continues to offset some of that pressure. Microsoft expanded Copilot with new agentic and code-generation capabilities, while the massive Anthropic–Akamai cloud agreement continues to reinforce the AI infrastructure story. AI demand remains enormous. But remember the other side: AI capex → more financing demand → more competition for capital → pressure on long-term yields. On regulation, my view remains unchanged. The CLARITY procedural vote failed to advance in the Senate. But: CLARITY failed ≠ institutional crypto adoption stopped. Six consecutive Bitcoin ETF inflow sessions totaling approximately $2.84B are a meaningful data point supporting that view — not a guarantee of future flows. SEC/CFTC rulemaking can also continue even while Congress remains stalled, although agency rules are not as durable as legislation. And one clarification on my previous Fed call: My old 51/49 scenario was my pre-decision view for September 15. It was my view, not the market-implied probability, and it is not my current forecast. The Fed already delivered the 25bp hike. Today, the market itself is pricing roughly a 71% probability of another October hike. The bigger picture tonight: **Oil ↓ Institutional BTC demand ↑ Leverage ↓ AI equities ↑ But Treasury yields remain dangerously high.** BTC is being stress-tested by macro. So far, the structure is holding. **$85K reclaim brings momentum back. $82–83K remains the key defense. $80K remains the line that matters most.** Stay disciplined. The market is not giving us a clean environment — but it is giving us very clear levels.

🚨 XRP MEGA-FLOW ALERT — 577.8M XRP MOVES OUT OF UPHOLD A major XRP on-chain cluster has just emerged. Within approximately 26 minutes, an Uphold-labelled XRPL wallet transferred: 577,815,416 XRP Approximate transaction-time value: $916.5 MILLION The sequence consisted of: 6 × 90M XRP + 37.815M XRP The funds were distributed across seven separate unidentified wallets. This is important — but the direction must be interpreted correctly. There is currently NO evidence that $916M of XRP was sold. There is also no evidence yet that these wallets represent independent whales accumulating XRP. What we can confirm is: A massive amount of XRP moved OUT of an Uphold-labelled wallet and into unidentified destinations. The pattern could represent institutional withdrawals, custody restructuring, cold-storage migration or another operational distribution. The next destination is what matters. If these wallets remain off-exchange, the supply-side interpretation becomes increasingly interesting. If the XRP begins moving toward major exchanges or liquidity venues, the picture changes. 577.8M XRP. ~$916.5M. Seven wallets. 26 minutes. We track what happens next.

🚨 MAJOR IRAN–HORMUZ UPDATE — TEHRAN HARDENS TERMS, RULES OUT NUCLEAR CONCESSIONS A significant new complication has emerged in the U.S.–Iran negotiations. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on September 25 that Iran will make no concessions on its nuclear program even if Washington accepts Tehran’s proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. More importantly, Tehran now says Hormuz will remain closed until “all of Iran’s conditions are met.” Iran’s package requires the United States to: • Lift the naval blockade on Iranian ports • Release frozen Iranian funds • Waive sanctions on Iranian oil sales • End hostilities across the other fronts, including Lebanon Only then would the seven-day timetable toward ending hostilities and reopening Hormuz proceed.

🚨 Institutional Technical Watch — BTC gets a materially different Q4 downside scenario Registered CMT AG Thorson published a fresh 25 September, 17:06 GMT weekly-cycle analysis that is worth flagging because it directly challenges the bullish higher-timeframe BTC framework from StoneX that we highlighted earlier. For Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe, Thorson argues that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle still allows for a final cycle low in October–November. His chart shows BTC developing inside a potential broadening-bottom structure; fulfillment of that pattern would require a lower low during Q4. The critical confirmation is a weekly close below $75,000 in October. Timeframe: Weekly / Q4 Current reference: ~$83.5K Bearish confirmation: weekly close < $75K during October Pattern: potential broadening bottom / four-year-cycle completion Downside implication: new Q4 lower low if the cycle thesis activates Bearish-thesis invalidation: Thorson does not publish a precise upside invalidation level, so I would not invent one; importantly, the thesis remains unconfirmed while BTC stays above $75K.

🚨 BITGET HACKER UPDATE — $183M CONSOLIDATED INTO ETH A significant new on-chain development has emerged from the Bitget exploit. According to Lookonchain, the attacker has now swapped most of the stolen assets on EVM chains into: 67,982 ETH Worth approximately: $183 MILLION This is NOT an additional $183M loss. It represents the conversion of assets already included in the ~$351.6M Bitget breach. The important development is what the attacker has done after the theft: Multiple stolen EVM assets have now been consolidated into a highly liquid asset — ETH. Arkham currently tracks the related addresses as a “Bitget Hacker” cluster. From here, the next movements become critical. ETH moving into mixers, bridges, exchanges or additional fresh wallets would materially change the tracing and potential market-impact picture. For now: ~$183M of the stolen EVM-side assets has been concentrated into ETH. We track where it moves next.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce calls to end mass KYC data collection, warning it puts crypto holders at risk of phishing and physical attacks. Pierce says the current KYC/AML system creates massive databases of sensitive information that can be hacked, leaked, or exploited. She's pushing for zero-knowledge proofs (ZK proofs) that could verify users meet regulatory requirements without exposing their personal information.

🚨 Institutional Technical Watch — Gold has just defended the critical support and is attempting a technical reversal This is a meaningful change from the bearish gold alert we were tracking. Veteran technical analyst James Hyerczyk published a fresh update at 12:23 GMT, 25 September after gold successfully defended the same major support area for the third time since early September. For Gold on the daily timeframe, price tested the main swing low at $4,235.17, just above the 61.8% retracement at $4,230.51, and buyers stepped in aggressively. Gold subsequently rebounded above $4,300. Immediate decision zone: $4,317.93–$4,319.61 — the 50DMA plus 50% retracement. Bullish confirmation: sustained break above $4,319.61 Upside targets: $4,384.59–$4,405.59 Full daily trend reversal: $4,399.67 — taking out this previous swing high formally changes Hyerczyk’s daily swing trend from bearish to bullish. Bearish invalidation: $4,235.17 Major downside trigger: $4,230.51. A sustained move back beneath the 50DMA/resistance cluster without reclaiming it would leave sellers in control and put this support back under pressure.

🚨 DORMANT BITCOIN WHALE AWAKENS — $381M BTC MOVES AFTER 4+ YEARS A major dormant Bitcoin wallet has just come back to life. After remaining inactive for more than four years, the wallet transferred: 4,500 BTC Worth approximately: $381.38 MILLION The Bitcoin moved into a newly observed wallet. Important distinction: There is currently no verified evidence that the BTC was sent to an exchange. So this should NOT be interpreted as a confirmed sale or exchange deposit. For now, this is a major dormant-wallet reactivation. The next movement matters much more than the first. If these coins remain in fresh self-custody addresses, the market implication is limited. If they begin moving toward Binance, Coinbase, institutional OTC infrastructure or other identifiable liquidity venues, the signal changes materially. $381M of dormant Bitcoin is moving again. Now we track the destination.

🚨 MAJOR AI INFRASTRUCTURE ALERT — ANTHROPIC SIGNS $11.6B AKAMAI CLOUD DEAL, WITH POTENTIAL EXPANSION TOWARD ~$20B Anthropic⁠ has signed a seven-year, $11.6 billion cloud-services agreement with Akamai⁠, one of the largest new AI infrastructure commitments this year. The structure goes considerably further than a normal cloud contract. Anthropic received warrants that could ultimately give it up to a 5% stake in Akamai. Roughly 2% is linked to the initial $11.6B commitment, while another 3% would vest if the companies expand the agreement by up to an additional $9B — potentially taking the relationship toward roughly $20.6B. Akamai expects approximately $5.5B of capex to support the initial contract and is increasing 2026 capital spending by roughly $1.7B to secure infrastructure components — including memory. It has also authorized Jabil to purchase around $1.7B of memory components under an existing agreement. The market reaction is significant: Akamai shares surged roughly 22% in extended trading, and were still up around 21% in Friday premarket trading.

🚨 TRUMP & XI CONFIRM NEW U.S.–CHINA TRADE OUTCOME — TALKS TO CONTINUE TOWARD A BROADER DEAL “A new round of consultations between the economic and trade teams of the two countries has produced new outcomes.” That is the official account of Donald Trump’s remarks published by China’s Foreign Ministry on September 25, following his White House talks with Xi Jinping. Trump added that the two sides should continue dialogue and reach an even better deal. Xi separately confirmed that the teams had reached a “new joint arrangement,” calling it good news for both countries and the global economy. The official readout also says Trump and Xi agreed that the U.S. and China should maintain dialogue and strengthen cooperation on AI, while Xi called for continued improvement in economic and trade relations.

🚨 TRUMP FLAGS WEAK YEN — JAPAN SIGNALS CLOSER FX COORDINATION WITH U.S. “President Trump expressed concern about the yen’s weakness.” That disclosure came from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on September 25, after consultation with the Japanese Prime Minister’s Office. She revealed that Donald Trump raised the issue directly during his September 22 meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The White House separately confirms the bilateral meeting took place. Katayama added that Takaichi told Trump an undervalued yen is problematic, and said she and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will continue close communication on foreign exchange. The disclosure briefly strengthened the yen from around ¥158.60 to roughly ¥158 per dollar.

🚨 BITCOIN SUPPLY ALERT — BINANCE SEES ITS BIGGEST BTC OUTFLOW SINCE 2023 A major Bitcoin exchange-flow signal has just appeared. CryptoQuant data shows Binance recorded more than: 13,800 BTC IN DAILY NET OUTFLOWS Worth roughly: $1.16 BILLION This is reportedly Binance’s largest single-day Bitcoin net outflow since 2023. And it isn’t an isolated move. Binance BTC reserves have fallen approximately: 705,000 BTC → 685,000 BTC in only four days. That’s roughly 20,000 BTC removed from exchange reserves, while the 7-day average netflow has dropped to around -2,000 BTC per day. Important distinction: This does not prove that whales bought $1.16B of BTC. The coins could be moving to self-custody, institutional custody or other off-exchange structures. But one fact is clear: A substantial amount of immediately available BTC supply is leaving Binance while Bitcoin holds near recent highs. Less exchange supply + sustained demand is a combination worth watching very closely.

🚨 MAJOR CRYPTO SECURITY ALERT — BITGET SUSPENDS WITHDRAWALS AFTER ~$352M WALLET BREACH Bitget⁠ has reported approximately $351.6 million in unauthorized transfers from its hot and warm wallets following a major security breach on September 24. The exchange has temporarily suspended withdrawals while investigating the incident. Early reporting indicates attackers compromised a backend wallet system and generated unauthorized transfers rather than simply obtaining private keys. Bitget says its cold wallets remain secure and that its protection fund—reported at roughly $465 million, alongside around $1 billion in company capital—is sufficient to cover the losses. The exchange’s CEO has also said North Korean involvement is considered highly likely, though attribution is not yet definitive. MARKET READ: This qualifies as more than a routine crypto security incident. A loss approaching $352 million combined with suspended withdrawals at a major centralized exchange introduces temporary counterparty and liquidity risk. The critical test will be whether withdrawals resume normally and whether Bitget can demonstrate that customer balances and cold-wallet reserves remain fully intact. So far, there is no evidence of a broader crypto-systemic failure or market-wide liquidation cascade. Watch closely for: withdrawal reopening → proof of reserves → reimbursement execution → additional compromised wallets → confirmed attacker attribution. If containment holds, the impact should remain exchange-specific. Any evidence that losses extend materially beyond the disclosed amount would change that assessment quickly.

🚨 BITGET HACK UPDATE — ATTACK VECTOR NARROWED DOWN A major new detail has emerged from Bitget’s $351.6M security breach. The attack was reportedly NOT caused by leaked private keys. Instead, attackers compromised a critical backend system supporting Bitget’s wallet infrastructure. That access allegedly allowed them to: → Forge withdrawal requests → Generate fraudulent transfer information → Trigger the wallet signing process → Move assets out of affected hot/warm wallets This materially changes the technical picture of the incident. Bitget says the breach has now been contained and there is no continuing risk of additional unauthorized outflows. Cold wallets remain unaffected. However, one critical question remains: How did the attackers gain access to the backend system in the first place? That part is still under investigation. Bitget says a full incident report covering the root cause and corrective actions will be released within 24 hours. Withdrawals remain temporarily suspended during the security review.

🚨 MAJOR BOND MARKET ALERT — GLOBAL SELLOFF DEEPENS AS U.S. 30-YEAR YIELD HITS HIGHEST SINCE 2004 A significant risk signal is developing across global fixed-income markets. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since 2004, while German and French yields have also reached multi-decade highs. Demand is showing signs of deterioration: the latest U.S. 5-year Treasury auction recorded the weakest demand in nine years, followed by another notably weak 7-year auction. Bank of America analysts said the price action suggests investors remain uncomfortable owning bonds while the Fed has restarted its hiking cycle, the Middle East conflict continues and the U.S. economy remains resilient. The pressure is increasingly spilling across asset classes: Higher yields → stronger dollar → tighter financial conditions → pressure on equity valuations, gold and other risk assets. The dollar has reached a two-month high, while markets are building expectations for additional Fed tightening. New York Fed President John Williams also said another U.S. rate hike this year would be a reasonable expectation.

🚨 BTC WHALE POSITIONING — $171M IN LONGS BUILT DURING THE MARKET PULLBACK Two large whales have aggressively positioned long on Bitcoin while the broader crypto market was pulling back. Over roughly four hours, the two wallets opened: 2,031.58 BTC in combined long exposure Worth approximately: $171 MILLION on Hyperliquid. Important distinction: This is leveraged perpetual exposure — not $171M of spot BTC accumulation. So it should not be interpreted as Bitcoin leaving exchange supply. But the positioning itself is significant. While the market was de-risking, two large players were taking the opposite side with substantial size. $171M of whale long exposure during weakness is worth watching closely. If these positions continue expanding while spot demand confirms, the signal becomes considerably stronger. If price moves against them, their liquidation levels instead become an important downside risk. Follow the positioning — not the noise.

JUST IN: Bitget crypto exchange confirms over $350,000,000 stolen following major hack.

🚨 Institutional Technical Watch — WTI has produced a meaningful bullish reversal signal A genuinely new technical development appeared after the previous scan. Bruce Powers published a fresh 20:52 GMT, 24 September daily/weekly analysis of WTI Crude Oil. This matters because it upgrades the oil move from a rebound into an identifiable one-day bullish reversal, with a much larger upside structure now defined. WTI rebounded from $92.248, successfully retested the former July swing resistance at $94.337 as support, and reclaimed its 20-day moving average. Powers therefore treats $92.248 as a developing higher swing low. Timeframe: Daily / Weekly Immediate structure: Bullish reversal Key support: $94.34 area, then $92.25 Major invalidation: decisive break below $92.25 Secondary downside if invalidated: $88.46–88.58, including the rising 50DMA Major breakout trigger: $106.84 Resistance after breakout: $107.47–109.74 Extended targets: $117.65 → ~$119.00 2026 highs: $118.29–119.54.

🚨 MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL / OIL ALERT — U.S. AND IRAN DISCUSS PHASED DEAL TO REOPEN HORMUZ AND EASE THE BLOCKADE A potentially major de-escalation channel has emerged in the nearly seven-month U.S.–Iran conflict. U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a phased arrangement under which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while Washington lifts its economic blockade, according to Reuters sources close to the negotiations. Iran could also potentially regain access to frozen assets. A senior Iranian official described the potential first stage as essentially: End the blockade → reopen Hormuz. The White House is keeping pressure on Tehran, saying Trump remains open to negotiations under the right circumstances while arguing that U.S. leverage remains extremely strong. No agreement has been reached, and significant differences remain. MARKET READ: This is potentially one of the most important de-escalation developments for global markets. Hormuz is the central bargaining chip in the conflict. A credible agreement reopening the waterway could materially reduce the geopolitical premium embedded in oil, ease inflation pressure and ultimately relieve some pressure on Treasury yields and risk assets. The market is already showing how sensitive oil is to this story: Brent surged as much as ~5% following today’s Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia, but pulled back from its highs after reports of the U.S.–Iran negotiations emerged, eventually settling at $106.60. The key distinction: these are active negotiations, not a finalized deal. But if Washington and Tehran actually agree on the first phase — Hormuz reopening + blockade relief — it would represent a major shift in the current geopolitical and inflation outlook.