SPX is now down about 8.5%
Looking for a 10-15% drop from the highs where SPX finds a local low in April before bouncing (so a bit more to go).
The strength of the bounce by SPX after the April low will be hard to know with a ton of confidence.
My *guess* is that it would at least rally back up to the 21W EMA, but in some edge cases could even sweep the prior highs before dropping again.
Path is very difficult to get right, but I think for now SPX will stay bearish into April before finding any real relief.
Bear markets are a process, not a single event.
Bear markets make fools of both bulls and bears.
I think we will likely see a 10% drop in SPX soon.