Where could Bitcoin find some resistance?
Bitcoin has been on a monster move this week, though perhaps not as impressive as what we were used to seeing in 2017. But considering the year that BTC has had compared to equities, this feels like a win. Just don't look too closely at BTC's YTD performance just yet.
Over to the technicals. One of the standout metrics over the past few months has been the Anchored-VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) fixed to March '24.
Over the last few weeks, the lower guide in average price/volume has been slowly acting as a solid support structure. Since the start of this leg higher this week, BTC has surged 25%, almost filling the gap up to the true average cost during this time period, an area which could act as a pivot point.
This is not the first time that this has happened. In late May, early April of this year, price came right to this average cost point and rejected, essentially giving those longer-term market participants the means to break even (or close to it) and exit the trade.
Is this time different? What stands out is the extent of the move, strong and showing little signs of weakness. This has come at a point where Bitcoin's volume has been fading towards the end of the holiday season, and one of the sayings coined by
@Banana3Stocks a few years back was "With low volume comes high volatility" (or something close to that), and how true this has been.
It does feel different, but markets rarely care about your feelings, so we will have to wait and see if this time is indeed truly different.
At some point we will see a cooling off, and this could be the area to watch over the coming days/weeks... Though with how this past week has been, by the time either I've finished writing this or you've finished reading this... I could have been proved majorly wrong haha.
Trade safe, enjoy the ride.