BREAKING: Very heavy US military posturing is now underway around Iran, with five KC-135 Stratotankers, two KC-46 Pegasus aerial refueling aircraft and an MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone observed operating near the chokepoint, per flight-tracking data. The activity comes directly after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day ceasefire offer. Iran says it has also kept its military on high alert as US aerial activity increases around the Strait.

BREAKING: Large numbers of U.S. C-130H military transport aircraft are reportedly heading toward the Middle East, coming directly after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day ceasefire offer and is again seriously considering launching another round of major attacks on Iran. The aircraft movement comes as Trump is reportedly considering another round of bombing campaign could be needed after the November midterm elections.

BREAKING: Donald Trump is again seriously considering launching another round of major attacks on Iran just after the November midterm elections, while rejecting Iran’s seven-day ceasefire offer, according to US officials cited by the Wall Street Journal. Tehran’s proposal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks if Washington lifts its naval blockade, waives oil sanctions and releases frozen assets. US officials have told Tehran there is no plan to lift the blockade. Trump is reluctant to resume major combat partly because US ammunition stocks are running low. Privately, he expects another bombing campaign could be needed. So, Another round of US-Iran fighting is now reportedly inevitable just after the midterm elections.

BREAKING: The US may have started launching airstrikes on Iranian oil tankers, with explosions reported in the Strait of Hormuz and near Kharg Island in southern Iran and Iran has reportedly placed its air defenses in Hormozgan Province on "red alert," per Initial Reports. If confirmed, Iran may start firing anti-ship missiles toward US aircraft carriers within hours, with Tehran having already tested a new anti-ship ballistic missile in early September that US officials assessed posed a major threat to American warships.

BREAKING: Just days after Pete Hegseth called the Washington Post’s casualty reporting “DISGUSTING and FAKE” and “a complete LIE” — the Pentagon quietly added 37 more wounded US troops to its own public database, 29 Navy sailors and 8 Marines, pushing the official Iran war wounded tally to 861, per the Washington Post. The Pentagon has not disclosed when, where or how the 37 service members were wounded. A Navy official said all 29 sailors have returned to duty, while CENTCOM declined to explain the increase. Hegseth had attacked the Post after it reported at least 22 US military personnel had died since the war began, four more than the Pentagon’s public database showed, writing on X: “This is DISGUSTING and FAKE. A complete LIE. Shame on the Washington Post — they’re worse than Iranian state media.” The Pentagon is now publicly acknowledging dozens more wounded US troops without publicly explaining when, where or how they were injured.

BREAKING: Iran has rejected any suggestion that the New York talks represent a diplomatic breakthrough, with a senior Iranian official telling Reuters that Tehran will make no concessions on its nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and no nuclear talks with the US will take place unless Iran’s conditions are met. The rejection comes as Al Jazeera reports that Iran-US talks in New York have moved into a more detailed technical phase, with technical experts joining after the first meeting between Witkoff, Kushner and Araghchi. Iran also says it has kept its military on its highest state of alert.

I waited several weeks before making this post, but now I can say something with certainty regarding the American aircraft carriers deployed in the CENTCOM area. Since roughly the beginning of September, I have not found the USS George H.W. Bush or the USS George Washington, nor the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, nor any other components of the carrier strike groups, such as Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. This implies that the U.S. has decided to pull back beyond the range of Iranian anti-ship missiles, thereby shifting the naval blockade line, which until August had been positioned at the exit of the Gulf of Oman. This strategic shift was likely prompted by Iran's first reported use of anti-ship ballistic missiles a few weeks ago, which clearly pose a potential threat to U.S. Navy vessels. In fact, in early September, the IRGC Navy tested the "Qasem Basir" ASBM for the first time, with a maximum range of approximately 1.200 km, it covers almost the entire Arabian Sea.

JUST IN: US Navy Sikorsky MH-60R Seahawk helicopter has been tracked operating directly over the Arabian Sea, hundreds of kilometres from any known US blockade line, per flightradar24 data. It’s coming amid reports the US Navy has reportedly withdrawn its warships from the blockade line around Iran over the threat posed by anti-ship ballistic missiles.

BREAKING: The US Navy has completely withdrawn its warships from the blockade line around Iran after Iran’s first operational use of the advanced Qasem Basir “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missile, with satellite imagery showing no US carriers or destroyers in the Gulf of Oman or Arabian Sea since early September, per open-source intelligence and Sentinel-2 data. The Qasem Basir has a declared range of roughly 1,200 kilometers — enough to cover nearly the entire Gulf of Oman and the US fleet’s previous positions — and is reportedly equipped with electro-optical and thermal imaging seekers designed to track naval targets. SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said the missile “created hell for the Americans,” while CENTCOM acknowledged US vessels came under attack by hostile missiles but said they were defeated without damage. Satellite imagery shows the USS George Washington, USS George H.W. Bush, USS Tripoli and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are no longer visible in the designated blockade zone, with the line reportedly pushed beyond the missile’s range. The USS Gerald R. Ford has also left the Middle East after a ten-month deployment, leaving the US with two carriers in the region as CENTCOM prepares “short and strong” strike options against Iran. The blockade remains in place on paper, but the warships enforcing it have reportedly moved beyond the range of Iran’s anti-ship missiles.

BREAKING: The US Navy has completely withdrawn its warships from the blockade line around Iran after Iran’s first operational use of the advanced Qasem Basir “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missile, with satellite imagery showing no US carriers or destroyers in the Gulf of Oman or Arabian Sea since early September, per open-source intelligence and Sentinel-2 data. The Qasem Basir has a declared range of roughly 1,200 kilometers — enough to cover nearly the entire Gulf of Oman and the US fleet’s previous positions — and is reportedly equipped with electro-optical and thermal imaging seekers designed to track naval targets. SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said the missile “created hell for the Americans,” while CENTCOM acknowledged US vessels came under attack by hostile missiles but said they were defeated without damage. Satellite imagery shows the USS George Washington, USS George H.W. Bush, USS Tripoli and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are no longer visible in the designated blockade zone, with the line reportedly pushed beyond the missile’s range. The USS Gerald R. Ford has also left the Middle East after a ten-month deployment, leaving the US with two carriers in the region as CENTCOM prepares “short and strong” strike options against Iran. The blockade remains in place on paper, but the warships enforcing it have reportedly moved beyond the range of Iran’s anti-ship missiles.

BREAKING: The Trump administration is preparing a plan to ban US diesel exports for 90 days, with Trump inclined to announce it by the end of the week despite divisions inside his own administration and furious pushback from the oil industry, per Politico and Reuters. Trump told reporters, “I’ve said let’s not send out the diesel” and that he had “called for it within my people,” as US diesel prices hit a record $6.52 a gallon, up 91 cents from a month ago. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum have opposed the idea, with Wright warning “the blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn’t work.” Europe is directly in the crosshairs. US diesel exports to Europe more than doubled to 396,000 barrels a day in 2025 after the EU banned Russian refined products, while European diesel prices are already up 40% this year amid the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A ban would be the first restriction on US energy exports since Obama lifted the decades-old crude export ban in 2015.