writing publicly forces a rigor that private notes never do i'm starting a public log of a fully systematic trading system from scratch will implement Carver's Systematic Trading methods on crypto data the goal is to move away from behavioral biases and discretionary trading towards a systematic approach gonna be a running experiment, applying a rules-based approach: volatility-targeting, position sizing, forecasting rules ...and more 🧵

every pair is materially positive, so no genuine offset anywhere in the book this sets the tone for portfolio construction risk doesn't scale with the number of instruments. it scales with independent return streams in our example with an average correlation near 0.6, our basket behaves like ~1.5 effective bets to frame it in carver's framework: the diversification multiplier on your risk target collapses as correlations rise this means adding instruments with high correlation buys us almost no reduction in pf volatility. we've just re-expressed the same factor bottomline is that correlation structure sets the ceiling on how much diversification is available to harvest

huge update, kudos to the pear team this is the way llms are gonna close the gap in favour of solo investors

Notes I kept from the recent 1000x podcast with Capital Flows: We're in the golden age of discretionary trading. Individual traders can move fast & embrace volatility that big funds can't. That's your edge. Use it. True edge isn't just price. Pure TA is a fool's errand. Layer in macro data, global liquidity flows & central bank certainty or you're flying blind. Control your information diet. Read sell-side research to find holes in your own thesis. Long-form macro in the morning. Social media = headlines only, never research. Geopolitical wildcard: A US-led regime change in Iran could cripple China's global apparatus & trigger a massive rush back into US equities, killing gold & the multipolar trade overnight. Commodity play: Western uranium & rare earth miners. Nuclear is non-negotiable for powering AI data centers. Avoid anything China-supply-chain dependent. High-conviction 2026 trades:→ $PER best proxy for Hyperliquid's TradFi/crypto bridge → Oracle. Larry Ellison is betting the entire balance sheet on AI infra. Exponential upside.