$ES_F $NQ_F 9/1/26
Dual post and likely going to keep it this way for both
#ES and
#NQ in the meantime. Let's get right to it as we kick off September.
#ES The VPOC<TPOC divergence from last Friday confirmed the possibility of the auction migration lower and currently now settled back inside the 3-day balanced range from the prior week. Unfortunately, the migration lower produced another balanced profile. Edge advantages in D-shaped auctions will stem from VAH and VAL; avoid trades inside balance unless you are an algo.
ES FOP (Futures Options) 9/1 EXP: +/-31pts; Raw premium budget + IV-by-strike distribution.
- Upper Boundary: ES 7733-7739
- Lower Boundary: ES 7669-7664
Weekly Boundaries are also included in the attached charts; derived from 9/1 5pm EST close.
Because the auction shifted lower, this has some skew towards sellers who will need to defend the upper edge within a neutral, two-way profile.
MAIN WATCH: Above ES 7706 (pVAH)
- Monday's upper edge of value where responsive selling should be achieved.
- Noted prior weekly Dark Pool VAH sits above here at ES 7722, would produce an annoying overshoot above the pVAH.
SECONDARY WATCH: Below ES 7682 (pVAL)
- Monday's lower edge of value where responsive buying should be achieved.
- The downside migration of value does offer a bit more skew towards sellers but as mentioned before, profiling should introduce the "what if's".
#NQ Similarly to ES, the VPOC<TPOC divergence from Friday has allows NQ to migrate the value area lower. Additionally, Monday has completed as a balanced D-shaped profile and therefore the same approach should be considered here; trade the VAH or VAL.
NQ FOP (Futures Options) 9/1 EXP: +/-172pts; Raw premium budget + IV-by-strike distribution.
- Upper Boundary: NQ 29692-29741
- Lower Boundary: NQ 29347-29309
Weekly Boundaries are also included in the attached charts; derived from 9/1 5pm EST close.
MAIN WATCH: Above NQ 29504 (pVAH)
- Monday's upper edge of value inline with the prior weekly Dark Pool VAH from QQQ DP blocks at 29503.
- Seek responsive selling that is achieved here.
SECONDARY WATCH: Below NQ 29376 (pVAL)
- Monday's lower edge of value.
- Likewise with ES, the auction, despite being neutral, has seller skew due to the migration of the value area lower.
- Additionally, the what if here is to watch for responsive buying that is achieved.
#QQQ #SPY
Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only. This is market commentary, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Trading involves substantial risk.