The WoW Forever economy changed the way I approach investing.
Before today, the level cap in Beta was 20.
As you could imagine, the demand for level 21+ gear was practically non-existent.
Last night, I noticed a rare blue sword on the auction house listed reasonably for 3g.
My thesis was that after today's patch increased the level cap to 30, the demand for this sword would sky rocket and I could flip it for a quick 2x.
Then I checked the auction house this morning before the patch.
Now there were THREE more identical swords listed for 2.5g
I felt like an idiot.
Most people probably would have tried to resell the sword at a loss, but I decided to wait it out.
Patch comes.
I play for a few hours, and decide to check the AH before I go to bed.
Now the sword is selling for 13g!
WoW Forever is filled with tens and thousands of 40 somethings who ALL knew this patch was coming today.
Regardless, they couldn't plan for a future they knew was coming within 24 hours.
The Lesson: The news is never priced in.
People are idiots.
You don't have to be THAT early to make it big.
And give your thesis the proper amount of time to play out.