May be the most significant interview of the year.
Peter Thiel is openly calling Trump's cabinet "not very smart but very loyal people." He doesn't fear Trump. He expects Dems to win the midterms. He thinks Vance or Rubio would "struggle" in 2028. This is the man who funded Vance's Senate campaign, and helped select Trump's political appointees. An insider is walking out.
When someone like Thiel says this publicly, it is a signal to the donor class: the trade is over. The upside has been captured. Get out before the midterms. Every tech oligarch who followed Thiel into the MAGA orbit now could follow him out, except may be Elon.
Vance is the biggest casualty. His political godfather just publicly hedged against him. Vance cannot criticize Trump because the MAGA base is all he has. He cannot embrace Trump's wars and corruption because normie voters are leaving. He is trying to hold the Groyper base together while the donor class, the suburbs, and the moderates walk away. His prospects look way bleaker than Kamala's did when she entered 2024.
Thiel has always been better at reading structural shifts than sentiment. In 2016, he saw Trump could win when everyone laughed. In 2026, he sees the project has hit its ceiling. He is not leaving on principle but because the returns could turn negative.
Peter Thiel explains what Trump got wrong in both of his terms
"I think the two administrations made opposite mistakes."
"The first administration brought in all these people who couldn't agree, and it was just all this internal fighting."
"The second administration, I think overcorrected for the mistake of the first term with all these loyalty tests. You got an administration staffed by not very smart, but very loyal people."
"There’s all sorts of ways it can be criticized. It also, reflected a way that things had reached a certain exhaustion, and certainly on the Republican side."