The more useful comparison is the previous midterm, of course. So far, North Carolina’s mail ballot figures are less favorable to Democrats than at this point in 2022.
At 39 days out:
-Democratic requests: down 40.3%
-Republican requests: down 10.8%
-Unaffiliated requests: down 21.2%
-Accepted ballots overall: down 18.2%
Democrats still dominate mail voting, but their registration share advantage over Republicans is 11.3 points smaller among requests and 5.2 points smaller among accepted ballots.
That doesn’t prove weaker Democratic turnout overall. Voters can change when and how they vote, especially as things normalize from Covid era behavior. But the caution cuts both ways. These early mail figures don’t establish a Democratic turnout surge either.
North Carolina Early Mail Update 9/25:
There are interesting patterns with the early mail in North Carolina, obviously at a small level. But if you followed me in 2024, that's what we do here.
Rs have won returns from yesterday and shifted the margin 0.50% in their favor. With requests they also won but by just 0.03%.
Same day comparison with requests has Rs in-between 2022 and 2024. But with returns, they are closing in on beating both years.
Interestingly, Democrats are down in returns so far for both years. We will see if that continues.