Tesla is in its biggest build year ever: 2026 CapEx guided at $25B+ (vs $8.5B in 2025). Q2 alone was $5.8B. Cash ~$43.5B, but FCF is negative while they spend ahead. What’s going in the ground:
• Texas: Cybercab lines, Cortex AI clusters, Optimus factory rising
• Fremont: S/X lines converted — Optimus production started • Nevada: Semi plant (~50k/yr) + 1.2 MW Megachargers
• Energy: Megapack 3 (Houston), Supercharger prefab “Accordion” rollout
• Plus cells, solar plans, early chip fab workNear-term earnings hit: more depreciation, lower FCF, margin pressure. Long-term bet: robotaxi miles, Optimus, storage, and charging become high-utilization, higher-margin businesses.