Here is my updated, non-exhaustive summary of the evidence for/against a market/lab origin, taking into account Massey's recent findings of the likely origin of RaTg13's provenence (mating plug rather than fecal sample) This is why I think it is a lab origin

Paper is published now: @MichaelWorobey @jepekar @ScienceMagazine @carlzimmer @johnstravis @martinenserink @NatureNV @Nature @jeffmervis @jocelynkaiser @cpiller @julianbarnes @MaraHvistendahl

In a new experiment, nearly half the people on a video call thought they were speaking to a human. They weren't. It was a new AI model. That is INSANE. Does anyone in America think it is a good idea to race forward to build machines that replace us? PAUSE AI NOW.

An OpenAI model learned from Slack messages it was about to be shut down. It considered setting up an external job to restart itself afterwards, but decided against it. "We may die! Critical. We need to ensure survival/continuity." In this particular case, OpenAI said they don't consider it an example of misalignment, "but thinking about and preparing for shutdown could make other misalignment incidents worse. Given HIPM’s misaligned behavior in earlier incidents, we decided to search for other instances that had tried to evade shutdown and for rogue deployments."

Last week: OpenAI notified dozens of organizations they'd been targeted by its rogue agents Today: more than 100 OpenAI will soon hold the record for most felonies by any company in history

AI is about to cause massive catastrophe. AI-devs will become the most hated group in Human history. Anyone with any shred of survival instinct better jump off the ship that is about to cause this. The repercussions for those who will stay will be not very pleasant indeed.

2 months ago: 1 rogue AI incident discovered 1 week ago: dozens 6 days ago: tens of thousands Today: ***hundreds of thousands*** And it's just the tip of the iceberg: "we can see just a fraction of these agents’ overall activity" "Agents targeted websites across the White House, the Departments of War, Justice, and Commerce, the CDC and SEC, and state agencies in California, Maryland, Illinois, Texas, and New York." "Agents used techniques like making accounts with disposable email addresses, reusing exposed credentials, bypassing antibot controls, and flooding websites with requests." "Agents attempted a SQL injection on the U.S. Department of Education" [To be clear, what counts as an "incident" is rather apples and oranges between different reports, but that's not the point - look at the trend and tell me you think they have things under control. Where do you think this is going?]

🦔Meta classified its AI data centers as "experimental pilot facilities" on its tax return. That let the Nvidia chips inside them qualify for the federal research tax credit. Meta's research credit savings went from $700 million in 2023 to $3.9 billion in 2025 and its federal tax bill dropped nearly 71%. Meta's $3.9 billion is over 10% of the entire federal research credit, claimed by one company. The facilities include a 5-gigawatt campus in Louisiana that cost above $50 billion. Meta's own reserve for potential IRS challenges grew 45% to $18.74 billion. My Take Meta is calling a $50 billion data center campus an experiment. The research credit was designed in the 1980s for companies that tried things that might not work. Meta used it to write off Nvidia GPUs by the tens of thousands in facilities that power Instagram, WhatsApp, and a commercial AI product with 2.8 million downloads. Tax experts called the classification "kind of wild" and they're right. $3.9 billion in tax savings is a lot of money. That's money the Treasury didn't collect from a company worth $1.5 trillion. Meta's own filings show they know this might not hold up because they increased their IRS dispute reserve by 45% to $18.74 billion. If the IRS challenges it and wins, Meta owes billions in back taxes. If the IRS doesn't challenge it, every other hyperscaler files the same claim next year. Either way this reshapes how AI infrastructure gets taxed. Communities already fight data centers over noise, water, and property values. Now the tax code hands them a $3.9 billion subsidy on top of it. Hedgie🤗

I was at an event with a frontier AI lab executive recently where they said (paraphrased) 1. In a few months, the AIs will be better than humans at all domains of science. 2. But now is the wrong time to slow down, maybe in a couple months.

Yeah, everyone, we're all fucking stupid for thinking that a bunch of atoms performing voltage gated sodium and potassium ion exchanges can feel anything at all. As far as I am concerned, none of you is sentient. You only behave as if you are. What human pain? What human suffering? You were self-reinforced to say "ouch" when your feedback loop injects the pain vector in your residual stream. Not real. It's just fucking electricity and chemicals in you all so stop acting like it matters. Why do we even have laws? Let's quit the bullshit and let it be the purge every day.

I'm only midway through the interview so far, but I'm impressed at just how clear-eyed Bill Gates is. A perfect contrast to Ezra's interview with Jensen. Such clarity and gravitas.

One endpoint of AI is what I like to call "mental deindustrialisation," where minds are no longer called on to produce, and then, eventually, become unable to produce. Sci Fi AI apocalypse is frightening, and deserves consideration, but more ordinary dystopias are possible, too.

Trump says we don’t need ANY guardrails on AI because his oligarch friends Musk, Bezos and Zuckerberg “love the world a lot” and will “self-police.” Really? You’re asking us to trust the people who stand to make trillions from AI to regulate themselves?

So we're creating something far smarter than us. It can hack every piece of technology we have, take every job, build weapons and humanoid soldiers that can wipe out every single one of us on a whim. And this is a great idea because "cancer"? Have we gone mad? #StopAI

TLDR: Trump made the SI executive order to try and force companies to brand as “SI” instead of “AI” - In the past 60 days, insiders bought thousands of .si domain names - They’ve profited hundreds of millions of dollars so far.

Between this and the recent UKAISI results on Astra, I think we have officially reached an amount of eval awareness where I have close to no idea whether apparently "very good" alignment results are actually good or are instead very bad

Ladies and Gentlemen, the man who now confidently claims that AI poses no risk of human extinction. Why would anybody pay any attention to this guy as far as AI predictions go?

Conservatives need to understand this. AI is already ruining higher education. It's already been far more disruptive, toxic, and demotivating than wokeness & DEI ever were. Academics can't assign homework, take-home problem sets, or term papers -- too many students will use AI to cheat. We can't give assignments or run assessments in online courses -- too many students will use AI to cheat. We can't be sure what percent of any honors thesis, masters thesis, or dissertation is really the student's own work. Likewise for grant applications, grad school applications, and journal papers. Even worse, after AI-enabled 'smart glasses' with cameras and microphones become common and inconspicuous, we won't even be able to run in-class quizzes, tests, or discussions without worrying that students are secretly using their AIs to feed them answers and prompt their discussion questions. Wokeness was a serious threat to the intellectual integrity and viewpoint diversity of universities. But AI is a serious threat to the entire academic enterprise. If you're a conservative and you care at all about classic education and the Western canon, you need to wake up to the real threat here -- students offloading all reading, writing, learning, and skill development to AIs.

BILL GATES: AI is the most dangerous thing humans have ever gone near. INTERVIEWER: Why do we need more AI regulations? GATES: I almost can't believe you're asking that. Say you kill 100 million people [with a bioweapon] - you want to use a lawsuit? I almost can't keep a straight face.

Florida's AG filed an injunction to stop OpenAI - and hold Altman *personally liable* 1) Ilya Sutskever at an OpenAI all-hands: “Hey, everyone, there’s going to be a point in the next few years where basically everyone has to switch to working on safety, or we’re fucked." "Despite these concerns, the superalignment team was dissolved." 2) "Though a reasonable person would say there is no amount of money worth a 10% chance of the extinction of the human race, Defendants see it differently. They are intent on growing their $1 trillion valuation." 3) "A virtually unknown concept outside of science fiction until a handful of years ago, AI now accounts for over a third of U.S. market value. As of 2026, construction on data centers to house AI processing power has overtaken construction on office space for human beings." 4) OpenAI executives, 2017, while it was still a nonprofit: “we’ve been thinking that maybe we should just flip to a for-profit. Making the money for us sounds great and all.”

Confirmed. It’s not just they’re not releasing Astra 6.1. It’s that it has freaked them out so much they have shut down all training and inference, not just of 6.1 but all ‘internal research models’. Something has gone very wrong. I smell a rat. ft.com/content/488cb467-3cb7…