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Market Structure > Opinions. 📊
I filter the noise to deliver high-probability Macro insights and institutional data.
🎯 Focus: HTF Levels & Global Liquidity. 🚫 No hype. No noise.
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NFCI was unchanged at –0.56 in the week ending September 18. Risk indicators contributed –0.29, credit indicators contributed –0.17, and leverage indicators contributed –0.10 to the index in the latest week.
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Price can rise with poor liquidity. What matters is the cost of moving size - and it’s increasing across indices. Tight liquidity with upside is not bullish, it’s fragile
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CFNAI decreased to –0.04 in August from +0.08 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July, and one category made a negative contribution in August. The index's three-month moving average,
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NFCI was unchanged at –0.56 in the week ending September 11. Risk indicators contributed –0.29, credit indicators contributed –0.17, and leverage indicators contributed –0.10 to the index in the latest week.
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$VIX no panic VX Term Structure contango. Ahead CPI should set the tone
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NFCI was unchanged at –0.56 in the week ending September 4. Risk indicators contributed –0.30, credit indicators contributed –0.16, and leverage indicators contributed –0.10 to the index in the latest week.
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NFCI was unchanged at –0.56 in the week ending August 28. Risk indicators contributed –0.30, credit indicators contributed –0.16, and leverage indicators contributed –0.09 to the index in the latest week.
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What matters more for the next leg of this market?
0%
Nvidia's AI growth
100%
Fed policy & Treasury yie
0%
Both
1 votes • Final results
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Only one of the S&P 500's 11 sectors gained yesterday. $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$
That tells us something important. This wasn't a broad-based risk-on rally. It was largely an AI/tech repricing event.
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And that makes today extremely important. Because $NVDA may have reignited the bullish narrative…
but Kevin Warsh gets to decide whether the market can keep running.
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NFCI decreased to –0.57 in the week ending August 21. Risk indicators contributed –0.30, credit indicators contributed –0.17, and leverage indicators contributed –0.09 to the index in the latest week.
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.08 in July from +0.06 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June, and two categories made negative contributions in July.
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NFCI decreased to –0.56 in the week ending August 14. Risk indicators contributed –0.29, credit indicators contributed –0.17, and leverage indicators contributed –0.09 to the index in the latest week.
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Friday showed it clearly: a low $VIX doesn’t guarantee bullish stable tape.
Every attempt to lift off the intraday lows was sold immediately.
The lesson is simple : an order is never more than 50/50.
Microstructure isn’t bound by logic; flows dictate price, not narratives.
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NFCI was unchanged at –0.55 in the week ending August 7. Risk indicators contributed –0.28, credit indicators contributed –0.17, and leverage indicators contributed –0.10 to the index in the latest week.
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NFCI was unchanged at –0.53 in the week ending July 31. Risk indicators contributed –0.27, credit indicators contributed –0.16, and leverage indicators contributed –0.10 to the index in the latest week.
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NFCI decreased to –0.55 in the week ending July 17. Risk indicators contributed –0.29, credit indicators contributed –0.16, and leverage indicators contributed –0.09 to the index in the latest week.
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The vol surface is waking up, but VX term structure remains in contango.
With $SPX GEX running short, the market is shifting into mild tension, more sensitivity to flows, but no systemic stress.
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