This is silly. Mearsheimer in 2015 -- "The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked" That has got to be one of the most prescient comments by any foreign policy analyst ever.

Washington’s biggest geopolitical fear was Russia teaming up with Germany. That's what George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, the American private intelligence and geopolitical analysis firm, explained back in 2015. German capital and technology, combined with Russian resources and manpower, could create a power capable of challenging the United States. Friedman also said that keeping Germany and Russia apart had been a central concern of US foreign policy for an entire century - from WWI through WWII and the Cold War. Now look where we are. The war in Ukraine has torn apart decades of German-Russian economic cooperation. Germany has turned away from Russian gas, and in September 2022, explosions ripped through the Nord Stream pipelines that had physically connected the two economies.

Prof. John Mearsheimer warned a decade ago that the West was setting Ukraine on a path to conflict with Russia, which would ultimately destroy Ukraine - Such arguments were smeared as "pro-Russian" and "anti-Ukrainian". I ask, who really betrayed Ukraine?

📂🇺🇸🇷🇺ALERTE INFO - 300 000 tonnes de gazole russe annoncées par Trump : après Nord Stream et les bases de la CIA, le revirement américain qui ridiculise les dirigeants européens ! Trump annonce que la Russie fournira immédiatement plus de 300 000 tonnes de gazole, 500 000 tonnes en novembre, un million ensuite, puis jusqu’à 3 millions de tonnes selon l’état de ses raffineries ! Pendant dix ans, les États-Unis ont fait de l’Ukraine un avant-poste face à la Russie : la CIA y a formé les services ukrainiens et construit 12 bases secrètes le long de la frontière russe des 2014 ! Et Trump fut l’un des pires adversaires de l’énergie russe comme en 2018, il accusait l’Allemagne d’être prisonnière de Moscou à cause de Nord Stream 2, puis signait fin 2019 les sanctions qui ont stoppé le chantier du gazoduc.. Ensuite L’Europe a dû se sevrer du gaz russe, en se tournant notamment vers le GNL américain.. Et maintenant la même mécanique va émerger avec le gazole et la marge qui va avec pour les américains. Quand le principal parrain de Kiev négocie par-dessus sa tête, le message est clair : l’Ukraine a servi de levier, et l’Amérique s’en détourne quand ce levier coûte plus qu’il ne rapporte.. La base de la géopolitique américaine, c’est d’empêcher toute alliance entre l’Europe et la Russie.

DÉFI DU WEEK-END

Fantastic debate at the first edition of the East-West Forum in Istanbul over the weekend! I addressed Europe’s vassalisation, the role of NATO and American hegemony on the continent: 💬 “The return of national interests is a reality; the only exception to this is Europe”. 💬 “European nations are systematically undermining their own security and geopolitical interests”. 💬 “Ukraine has absolutely no chance of winning the war militarily against Russia”. 💬 “European elites are not pursuing these policies because they are stupid; Europe’s current structure is purely an order of vassalage”. 💬 “Those being served are private, oligarchic, and financial interests, the military-industrial complex, and the agendas of Washington and Israel”. 💬 “Europe has been under de facto American military occupation since the end of the Second World War”. 💬 “NATO is directly tied to the strategic interests of the US and serves to project American power globally”. 💬 “Despite the token objections of their leaders, Europeans are complicit in the US aggression against Iran due to US bases on the continent”. 💬 “The NATO 3.0 process is further cementing Europe’s dependence on the alliance”. 💬 “The cultural and ideological hegemony of the United States over the continent continues unabated”. 💬 “It is often claimed that the EU was designed as a counterweight to the US; however, the reality is the exact opposite”. 💬 “Europeans need to purge themselves of the transatlantic system and initiate their own process of decolonisation”. east-west-forum.com

Here in Europe, it has become patriotic to keep silent about what is happening inside Ukraine. Borders closed to men have turned life into a cage for countless families. Corruption of colossal scale — a scale you simply cannot imagine — reaching the president's closest circle, set against total poverty, is about to kill the very motivation to resist Russia. The hunting of men, the torture in recruitment offices, men beaten to death by conscription officers, and sometimes killed by their own commanders — all of it resembles a brutal gladiatorial spectacle, in which ordinary Ukrainians have a single aim: to survive. Men flee across mountains and rivers; our own services pull out the bodies of those who did not make it. And ahead lies another terrible winter, without heating and without light. You are told of resilience, of dignity, of an unbreakable spirit. Which of the things I have just described reflects any of that? To ignore this suffering in the name of grand ideas, to conceal it behind beautiful words — that is inhumanity. In dark times, the hardest thing of all is to remain human. And I remind you again: sooner or later, each of us will be known by the fruit we bear today. Read the full text of the speech here 👇 substack.com/home/post/p-216…

Nouveau livre d'Emmanuel Todd, La Dislocation, regroupant les entretiens avec @Diane_Lagrange : « J’ai le plaisir d’annoncer la publication par les éditions Gallimard de La Dislocation. Conversations avec Diane Lagrange, le 24 septembre. Réflexion sur le chaos occidental, ce livre est bien sûr la suite logique de La Défaite de l’Occident. Sa méthode est toutefois différente. C’est un livre d’un genre nouveau. La Dislocation est une analyse à chaud, par le dialogue, des évènements d’une année complète – aux États-Unis, en Allemagne, en France, en Israël, en Iran, en Russie, en Chine, au Japon – qui y sont replacés dans la longue durée de l’histoire. Le dialogue encourage la spéculation: sur les faits, sur leurs causes, et sur le futur. Il révèle ici un potentiel prédictif supérieur à l’analyse classique. Je suis donc particulièrement heureux de publier ce livre maintenant parce que l’année qui vient sera sans doute, sur bien des fronts, celle du dénouement. » emmanueltodd.substack.com/p/…

🚨Singapore's View on an Increasingly Multipolar World Russia, Ukraine, Kishore, how do you see that conflict ending? Cuba has a sovereign right to choose a Chinese base. What, what do you say to that? You know, when you, when you have great powers, great powers have interests, and is in... If you wanna ensure a more peaceful world, understand the red lines of all the great powers. The United States has got clear red lines. Russia has got clear red lines. China has got clear red lines. India has got clear red lines. And once you understand where the red lines are, and you don't go near the red lines, then you, then you... That's how you preserve the peace. But if you keep saying, "No, my interests matter and yours don't," that's how you end up with wars.

1. השיח הציבורי סביב הסרט נז"א חסר ערך בימים אלה. כמעט כל מי שמביע עמדה אודותיו, כלל לא צפה בו. רק במרחב דיוני מטומטם לחלוטין זה אפשרי בכלל. להתבטא ביחס לתוכן שלא נחשפת אליו. 2. כמעט כל העמדות שנשמעו נטועות עמוק בתוך שדה הניצול הציני של פוליטיקאים ושופרותיהם, את הקשב של הישראלים בתקופת הבחירות. המהלך הרטורי פשוט : "כל מי שלא תוקף את הסרט או את יוצריו, הוא נגד חיילי צה"ל, נגד מדינת ישראל ונגד העם". והנה זה פלא, כל מפלגות האופוזיציה הפכו, באמצעות רטוריקה מניפולטיבית זאת לאויבי העם. 3. מלבד הניצול הציני של הסרט לצרכים פוליטיים, אפשר להכיר גם במספר מאפיינים יסודיים אודות הישראלים והישראליות ביחס למבקרי העם. 4. אנחנו, הישראלים, תמיד ה-צודקים וה-צדיקים. כל מי שטוען אחרת או חלילה מבקר אותנו - הוא שונא ישראל. אין אצלנו מציאות שבה המבקר הוא גם אוהב העם. אין מבקר שעושה זאת מתוך אהבת העם. ושונאי ישראל הגדולים ביותר, הם המבקרים מבפנים. אנחנו מכנים אותם "האויב שבפנים". וכי מתישהו בתולדות עם ישראל, השמיע פלוני ביקורת על התחתית הערכית אליה הגיע העם וזכה למחיאות כפיים סוערות? וכי קיימת בכלל ביקורת לגיטימית על העם? אנחנו עם המתעב את נביאיו ומכיר בהם רק בדיעבד, לרוב לאחר חורבן. כך היה וכך יהיה. 5. הדואליות הערכית שמפגינים ישראלים היא בלתי נסבלת ובלתי נתפסת. אנחנו הישראלים צועקים מעל כל גבעה ותחת כל עץ רענן : "נקמה, כיבוש, גירוש, אין חפים מפשע, להרוג תינוקות, ילדים, נשים, כולם אויבים, להשמיד את עמלק, לזרב". ובאותה נשימה צועקים: "אין רחמנים מאיתנו, אין רגישים מאיתנו, איך אתם מעזים לטעון נגדנו, מאיפה הבאתם את הרעיון שאנחנו הורגים חפים מפשע?". היכולת לצעוק במקביל הן את קריאות המוות והן את קריאות הצדיקות והערכיות - נשגבת מן הבינה, בוודאי מן היושר. אם צעקתם "מוות לכולם" התייצבו לצד מוסר אכזר זה, ותיבחנו בהתאם לו. 6. החרדה ל"שם הטוב של האומה" מזוייפת ומעוררת בחילה. גם ביחס ל"שם הטוב" מתקיימת דואליות ערכית. "מי סופר את העולם, עם לבדד ישכון, אנחנו לא רואים אותם ממטר, גם כך אלה אנטישמים". קריאות אלה נשמעות תמיד כאשר מבוצעים מעשים עליהם מחליטה ישראל או מבצעים הישראלים, ואשר מובילים לביקורת בינלאומית. כיצד מתקיימת עמדה זאת עם האשמת מבקרי העם בפגיעה בשם הטוב של האומה? וכי שמה הטוב של האומה מהווה שיקול לאיזו החלטה? כאשר צבי סוכות מנתץ על דעתו איזה פסל מזוין, הוא שוקל את ההשפעה על שמה הטוב של האומה? כאשר איתמר הכלומניק מתרוצץ עם סיכת חבל התליה המטופשת שלו הוא שוקל כיצד משפיע הדבר על שמה הטוב של האומה? שמה הטוב של האומה צץ תמיד כשיקול כבד משקל אך ורק ביחס לאלה המבקרים את העם. מבקרי העם, הם תמיד גם מכתימיו בעיני האומות. הם ורק הם. 7. אז הנה, קחו לכם, עם צדיק וטהור. אין כמותכם. אתם נזר הבריאה. אין יפים כמותכם ואין חכמים כמותכם. אין צדיקים כמותכם ואין צודקים כמותכם. התהלכו בגב זקוף, בלי דין ובלי חשבון, באשר כל מעשיכם טהרה וצידקות. וגם אם השכינה תחזה ברוע מעלליכם, שירו כי היא היא אוהבת אתכם ותמיד יהיה לכם רק טוב. אתם עשו רע וה' יגמול לכם טוב. ומי שיעז, חלילה להפר את שלוות הנפש ביחס למוסר הקדוש שלכם, העלו אותו באש. זרקו אותו לבור כפי שזרקתם את ירמיהו. רדפו אחריו כפי שרדף אחאב אחר אליהו הנביא. אל תתכופפו בפני האמת ולא בפני השכינה. דהרו עד הסוף. עד לחורבן.

"Bonjour ! C'est moi, Bruno Le Maire ! Je viens juste de déposer les mômes à l'école..." 🤪

J’adore

Днес германската журналистка Хроме Шмалц публично зададе въпроса: "Русия ще ни прости ли още веднъж?“ Това е логичен и напълно легитимен въпрос — въпрос, зададен от човек, който вижда истината и не се съобразява с пропагандата, който познава историята и знае, че да я забравяме е вечната ни грешка. Водена от такива като Калас и фон дер Лайен, цяла Европа вече четири години предизвиква Русия, надявайки се, че Путин ще държи ядрените си ракети в силозите. Официалната причина е руското нахлуване в Украйна — държава, която дори не е член на НАТО. Никой не се пита какви са мотивите на Русия, а също така удобно се преструваме, че сме забравили гражданската война, която в продължение на осем години разкъсваше Донбас, както и кой е подхранваше. В продължение на 80 години САЩ нахлуват в различни държави по света с всевъзможни измислени мотиви, а никой не възразява. Напротив, понякога и Европа участва в авантюрите. И тогава? Истината е, че още от времето на Хитлер ние, западняците, винаги сме смятали руснаците за простовати болшевики, селяндури, мошеници и пияници. Това, което ни дразни, е фактът, че те имат огромна империя, колосална територия, пълна с ресурси, докато ние в Европа отдавна сме привършили, всичко. От десетилетия нашата индустрия оцелява, внасяйки всички суровини, от които се нуждае, а сега е поставена и под натиск от китайската конкуренция, други "селяндури и мошеници“. И тогава нека го кажем: "Не сме по-различни от Хитлер!" Разликата е, че той открито заявяваше, че има нужда от "жизнено пространство“, докато ние лицемерно провокирахме Русия, надявайки се тя постепенно да се разпадне. Почти успяхме по времето на Елцин. Но после се появи онзи досадник Путин. След падането на Берлинската стена започнахме да поставяме ядрени ракети все по-близо до Москва, докато накрая "жабата не разбра какво се случва и не изскочи от тенджерата". А сега, след като предизвикаха целия този хаос, САЩ се отдръпват, тяхна голяма специалност и ние останахме като пълните идиоти с горящата клечка в ръка, докато някой се пита дали Русия някога ще ни прости." /Хроме Шмалц/

This 👇 is insane and really illustrates how far France has fallen. France's Foreign Minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, now says that anyone "who is distrustful of the European Union" is basically a useful idiot for Putin. The implication being that distrust or criticism of the EU is not a legitimate democratic position anymore but a form of collaboration with "the enemy." Which is absolutely insane given France's recent history: De Gaulle was famously opposed to the very kind of supranational Europe that the EU has become, and so have been a number of major French political figures both on the right (like Philippe Séguin) or the left (like Jean-Pierre Chevènement). Not to mention the 55% of French voters who rejected the EU Constitution in 2005 (and whose vote was ignored because that very constitution was adopted later on regardless under the Treaty of Lisbon). In effect, by Barrot's criteria - heck, by the current French government criteria since he is speaking as the government's Foreign Minister - De Gaulle, Séguin, Chevènement and 55% of the French population would be classified as Russian agents 🤦 The craziest aspect of it, if you take a step back, is that, fundamentally, people like De Gaulle who opposed EU integration did so because they cared first and foremost about France - about its independence, its sovereignty, its right to govern itself. Calling that a form of foreign allegiance is just absurd and a complete inversion of reality: love of country and patriotism is being rebranded as treason. More worryingly, this also shows the current state of the "democratic debate" in France, which is neither democratic, nor a debate. Not democratic because this is the French government treating legitimate and reasonable positions as treason. And not a debate because there's nothing left to debate: the EU has become a dogma, and distrust of it has become disloyalty and taboo. One can legitimately be afraid that this is the road to a form of totalitarian ideology across Europe, dressed up as centrism, where the only acceptable position is unquestioning loyalty to supranational institutions whose defenders, tellingly, would rather question the patriotism of their critics than submit themselves to the verdict of the people.

La guerra è finita. Non sul campo, dove ancora si muore, ma nella realtà dei rapporti di forza. La Russia l’ha vinta. L’esercito ucraino agonizza. A Washington lo hanno capito. In Europa no. O fingono di non capirlo, che è peggio. Il fatto più osceno non è Kiev che resiste a oltranza. Non è Washington che cerca un’uscita per mascherare la sconfitta. Il fatto più osceno è l’Europa. Una classe dirigente colta da una frenesia bellicista che non ha più obiettivo, non ha più industria, non ha più soldati, non ha più strategia. Solo slogan. Solo morale da commedia. Solo la pretesa di continuare una guerra che altri hanno già deciso di chiudere. Si parla di «minaccia esistenziale». Si parla di carri russi a Lisbona. Si parla come se la geografia fosse un optional e la demografia un dettaglio da salotto. Un paese di diciassette milioni di chilometri quadrati, con una popolazione in calo e uno Stato che fatica già a occupare il proprio territorio, non ha alcuna intenzione di invadere l’Europa. Non ha i mezzi. Non ha il desiderio. Non ha l’interesse. Chi racconta il contrario non fa analisi. Fa propaganda. Mosca raggiungerà i suoi obiettivi. Fino a Odessa. Poi si fermerà. Non per bontà. Per calcolo. Perché una potenza fragile dal punto di vista demografico non si lancia in un’avventura continentale. Perché il suo problema è la sicurezza del Mar Nero, non la conquista di Berlino. Perché chi ha pagato un tributo di sangue non spreca il resto in una fantasia da editoriale. Il resto è teatro. L’Europa fornisce armi e fatture. Non decide. Sogna di vincere una guerra che ha già perso al fianco di chi ora cerca di uscirne. Accusa di «capitolazione» chi guarda i numeri. Chiama «realismo» la propria cecità. Confonde la Nato con uno scudo, quando è prima di tutto un dispositivo di controllo. La questione è chi ha voluto questa guerra, chi l’ha condotta per procura, chi ha spezzato l’asse energetico europeo, e chi oggi pretende di continuare il massacro per non ammettere di aver sbagliato tutto. Quando la sconfitta sarà ufficiale, non basterà cambiare comunicato. Bisognerà spiegare perché un continente intero ha preferito l’isteria alla geografia, la predica al calcolo, e la guerra degli altri al proprio interesse. Fino ad allora, il coro continuerà. Più alto. Più vuoto. Più pericoloso.

Lawrence Wilkerson: NATO & the EU are Dead - A New World Emerges youtu.be/H9gD_YOeJwA?si=zlfg… via @YouTube

Ex-US-Oberst Lawrence Wilkerson: "Wir haben ganz Europa gekauft." 📌Wir haben Zeitungsverleger gekauft. 📌Wir haben Gewerkschaftsführer gekauft. 📌Wir haben Parlamentarier gekauft. 📌Wir haben zwei Generalsekretäre gekauft: Jens Stoltenberg und Mark Rutte. 📌Wir haben ganze Länder gekauft – ihren politischen Apparat und alles, was ihn beeinflusst. Ab 2002 haben wir dann richtig Gas gegeben. Milliarden von Dollar für die CIA und andere. USAID war ein Instrument. Sie haben die liberale Demokratie zur Waffe gemacht. Aber wir haben das Europa, das es heute gibt, ganz bewusst geschaffen. Und jetzt zahlen wir den Preis dafür, denke ich. Denn es wird noch sechs bis zwölf, vielleicht achtzehn Monate dauern, bis wir einige dieser Leute loswerden. Und die Parlamente? Gott weiß, wie lange es dauern wird, die Leute dort loszuwerden. Wir haben Europa minutiös nach dem Bild geformt, das wir uns vorgestellt haben.

War propaganda in Ukraine makes people compromise with their conscience until they stop checking facts and start believing the picture they are sold. They are said: Stay quiet about corruption so Western aid isn’t threatened. They stay quiet because the aid is existential. Meanwhile the corruption grows, and more of that aid ends up in pockets of the unchangeable elites. They are said: Conscription brutality is “normal” because those men are dodging duty. So people look away from beatings, torture, mobilization of the disabled and the sick, men falling from windows. Then they hear that only a tiny share of the mobilized even reach the front. The rest pay everything they have to escape. While people stay silent someone in that system gets rich. When people stay silent long enough, speaking feels dangerous. They start believing the state should profit off grief they have to hide so more money keeps coming — and that dying for the state is the major goal, and the best hero is a dead one. This is what brainwashing means. Do you see it yet?

Reality