Recent Temperature and Energy Imbalance Trends Point to Higher Estimates of Future Warming
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Overview of transient climate response constraints in the published literature (Forster et al., 2021; Haustein et al., 2019; Jiménez-de-la Cuesta & Mauritsen, 2019; Nijsse et al., 2020; Ribes et al., 2021; Tokarska et al., 2020), and our constrained estimates, two of which are based on global surface air temperature (GSAT) trends (solid orange lines), and the other on Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) trends (solid red line). Dashed and dotted red lines additionally show the constraints based on the long-wave- and short-wave-only EEI trends. Gray shading indicates the overlap region between the joint EEI-based range and the two GSAT-based ranges. Bars show 90% confidence ranges.
Credit: Gyuleva et al. (2026)