Experienced technical analyst with a passion for deciphering market trends. Using charts and indicators to navigate the world of finance. #TechnicalAnalysis
Atlanta, Georgia
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Disclaimer: The content shared on this account is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions. #NotFinancialAdvice
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bitcoin-cash:native — One of My Signature Setups Could Be Developing!
BCH could be preparing to play out one of my signature setups, and I have to admit, this is one that always makes me a little nervous.
I call it a retail FOMO setup.
The idea is that price makes only a shallow retracement—shallow enough that traders are willing to pay a premium to jump into the move rather than wait for a deeper pullback. That buying pressure can accelerate price to the upside, potentially even as bearish divergence begins to develop.
And that's the possibility I'm watching here with BCH.
Price is currently building a triangle, compressing between support and resistance. Bulls are trying to push price higher, bears are trying to push it lower, and eventually one side is going to win that battle.
The graphic illustrates the setup I'm watching, with a potential upside move into the golden pocket and 0.786 Fibonacci extension zone.
There are several important levels defining this formation:
Overhead resistance: The horizontal resistance zone and the resistance VWAP anchored to the highest-volume spike during the move higher.
Support: The horizontal support level beneath the pattern, along with the volume-weighted average price aligning with the formation's lows.
Those levels are creating the compression we're seeing now.
If BCH breaks to the upside, I'll be watching for a potential move into that golden pocket and 0.786 extension area. I'll also be paying attention to whether bearish divergence develops as price pushes higher.
On the other hand, if price loses the lows of this formation, the setup fails.
Right now, BCH is approaching a decision point. Price is compressing, and I'm watching to see which direction it chooses.
I'm looking for a long opportunity here, but I want to see how price responds to the boundaries of this pattern before committing to the setup.
Not financial advice.
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$NEAR — This Thing Is a Ripper!
Yesterday on stream, I was eyeballing a potential short setup on NEAR. I mentioned that if price came back into the selling-volume zone, we could potentially see a short opportunity.
We did get a quick little reaction from that area, but so far, it looks like nothing is stopping this train!
Man, this thing is a ripper right now.
I'm watching to see whether NEAR encounters some resistance around the $5.90 level, but with the momentum we're seeing, I'm not particularly interested in trying to force a short.
At the same time, I don't see myself chasing this move with a leveraged long position at current levels either.
If we get a proper pullback, that's where I'd be more interested in looking for a potential long setup. I'd rather let price come back into an area where I can evaluate the structure and risk than jump into a move that's already extended.
For now, I'm keeping an eye on $5.90 and watching to see whether NEAR gives us a pullback worth trading.
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$BTC — Is Bitcoin Looking to Hold the Current Low?
There are a couple of things I'm watching as I examine whether Bitcoin may be looking to hold its current low, and one of those is USDT dominance.
USDT dominance recently found support at a small level that has held in the past. These are levels I've shared on my livestream multiple times, and price has now pushed back into an area of local resistance.
If you're looking at the image I'm sharing, you'll notice that this level is labeled "Local Support." However, I'm currently treating it as resistance, because USDT dominance has struggled to reclaim this area in the past.
If USDT dominance rejects from here and holds this level as resistance, that could give Bitcoin some room to move higher.
However, I wouldn't necessarily expect Bitcoin to move too far just yet, especially if we've recently completed a five-wave motive move. In that scenario, I would be watching for a potential ABC correction rather than assuming the next move higher will immediately develop into sustained upside continuation.
Now, if USDT dominance rejects from this resistance and subsequently loses the current support level to the left of the chart, there are several prior lows below where dominance has previously found support.
Those would become my next areas of interest.
At that point, I would simply compare where USDT dominance is trading against Bitcoin's price action to see whether Bitcoin is approaching an area where the current move could begin to lose momentum.
For now, I'm watching whether USDT dominance can reclaim resistance or whether another rejection gives Bitcoin an opportunity to recover from its current low.
Personal trading notes. Not financial advice.
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bitcoin-cash:native — Latecomers
For anyone who may be a little late to the Bitcoin Cash move, I just want to point out that price action is starting to hit some resistance here after what was already a pretty significant move to the upside.
I would not be looking to FOMO into a long at this point. If you're still looking for an entry on Bitcoin Cash, I would rather wait and see if we get a pullback from this current resistance area and then look for a potential long based on how price responds to that pullback.
If we do get a good entry off the pullback, the potential upside target I'm watching is around $353.30, which is where the value area low is currently sitting.
So if you missed the initial move, don't feel like you have to chase it here. Let the trade come back to you and see if the pullback gives you a better opportunity to participate.
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$NVDA — Starter Trade Update
We haven't quite reached TP3 on Nvidia yet, but I wanted to share a quick update on the entry I gave earlier.
And again, I'm not afraid to admit that I was scared when I took this position.
I've noticed in my own trading that some of the setups that make me the most uncomfortable can end up being the ones worth taking—as long as the setup and risk management are there.
When I originally entered, I mentioned that waiting for confirmation would probably be the easier entry from a psychological standpoint. My nerves were definitely there because I was entering before I had the confirmation I would normally prefer.
But the starter trade has worked out well so far.
We're now approaching a 1:3 risk-to-reward on the position, although TP3 hasn't quite been reached yet.
I'm also beginning to see some toppy price action developing on Nvidia. Keep in mind, though, that toppy does not mean extreme. Extreme conditions are generally what I prefer to see before becoming more interested in the possibility of a meaningful reversal.
The other important update is my stop loss has to move at this point. I mentioned that during today's livestream as well. With the trade progressing this far, I'm no longer managing the position from the same place I was when I initially entered.
So, we're not at TP3 just yet, but the starter trade is sitting around that 1:3 area and I'm adjusting the risk accordingly.
Personal trading notes. Not financial advice.
I entered a small long position on #Nvidia based on the 4-hour timeframe.
There is no confirmation of a reversal yet. For me, real confirmation may not come until price can reclaim the blue dotted trend line on my chart.
For this setup, I'm giving the trade a 2 ATR stop loss and keeping the position size small because this is an early entry without confirmation.
I'm sharing it now in case your own analysis aligns with mine and you're also interested in watching $NVDA for a potential long. I'll come back and update you if and when I see actual confirmation of the reversal.
Also, keep in mind that we have a Fed rate decision coming up, which could create significant volatility across the market.
Losing trades are part of trading. Risk management is part of it too. Manage your position size, know where your risk is, and don't take more risk than you're comfortable losing.
This is not financial advice.
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$BTC — Short Position Update
Earlier today, I shared that I had taken a short position on Bitcoin.
That original entry was based primarily on the location of the weekly VWAP high on the Binance pair, which was an area I had been watching for a potential rejection.
I have since opened another Bitcoin short on a separate account.
As I mentioned during the live stream, Bitcoin is moving into an area where I believe we could potentially see a rejection.
The two green levels on my chart represent prior Value Area Low zones for Bitcoin, and my Market State indicator is also showing that the trend is pushing into extreme conditions as price moves into this area.
For the new position, my stop is based on a 500-bar lookback on the 4-hour timeframe. I rounded that level to approximately $88,000.
Even though I've already opened the additional short, there are two levels I would continue watching closely if Bitcoin keeps pushing higher:
$86,500 — First area I'm watching
$88,500 — Next area of interest
Bitcoin has essentially been moving in roughly $1,000 increments, so I'm keeping that behavior in mind as price works through these levels.
I'm already positioned for the potential rejection, but that doesn't mean Bitcoin can't continue pushing higher first. Market State is showing extremes and we're moving into prior value-area structure, so now I want to see whether price actually confirms the rejection.
If it doesn't, that's what the stop is there for.
Personal trading notes. Not financial advice.
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$SUI Short — TP1 Hit
I mentioned at the end of today's live stream that I took a short position on $SUI.
To be completely transparent, I was actually afraid to take this trade.
My Market State indicator was showing extreme conditions, which is generally exactly where I want to start looking for a short. But I hesitated, and ultimately didn't take the position until the very end of the stream.
Since then, TP1 has been hit.
I intentionally didn't share the exact stop because I didn't want that level sitting out there as a target, but now that we've reached TP1, I wanted to give you an update.
Price action is also no longer trading at extremes, which is important.
One thing I'm keeping in mind is the volume. Volume was increasing during the move higher, and I believe we were somewhere around seven or eight consecutive green candles into the move. During the stream, I talked about my theory surrounding 9 and 13 consecutive green candles, so I'm not ruling out the possibility that SUI comes back up and backtests this area before deciding what it wants to do next.
If price does continue higher instead, the next area I'll be watching is the $1.12, which is essentially where the golden pocket is located.
The $1.04 is also worth noting, as it sits slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
For now, TP1 has done its job. From here, I'm watching to see whether we get a backtest, further downside continuation, or another push into those higher levels.
Personal trading notes. Not financial advice.
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$ARB — Possible Swing Failure
$ARB was expanding prior to the market open, and price managed to push above the blue ascending trend line that I shared in yesterday's update.
With that expansion, I thought there was a possibility that ARB could continue toward approximately $0.27.
Since then, things haven't looked quite as good.
Price has rejected back below the ascending trend line and has also fallen back below the horizontal weekly level I was watching on stream. The current candle isn't looking particularly strong either.
At this point, it looks like we may have gotten a swing failure rather than the expansion showing this morning.
For now, the attempted breakout has failed to hold, so I'm watching this much more cautiously.
I'll update again as the structure develops.
Personal trading study notes. Not financial advice.
$ARB — Weekly Market Structure & Potential Rejection
Study Notes | September 20, 2026
I'm questioning whether Arbitrum ($ARB) is approaching another potential rejection point on the weekly timeframe.
There are several observations that have my attention, particularly the historical behavior of the MACD, the current resistance structure, and the fact that ARB has yet to establish a confirmed higher low.
1. Weekly MACD — Historical Reversal Behavior
The previous two times the weekly MACD crossed above the zero line, those events coincided with reversal points that ultimately marked significant highs for ARB.
Now, the MACD is once again approaching a potential cross above zero.
The question I'm asking myself is whether this third occurrence will produce a similar result or whether ARB will finally establish a different market structure.
A MACD cross above zero is generally associated with improving momentum, but ARB's historical behavior makes this particular occurrence worth studying.
2. Resistance and Price Structure
ARB is currently trading around $0.21, just above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
I'm identifying several areas of potential resistance:
An ascending trend line that I would typically associate with an ascending broadening formation, from which price is currently rejecting.
A horizontal resistance level that has already produced two prior rejections.
The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, which aligns with major prior lows that could now act as resistance.
The 0.382 retracement is particularly interesting because I estimate that the weekly RSI could approach approximately 70 if price reaches that area.
With the RSI already above 60, ARB is demonstrating improving momentum, but that strength is developing as price approaches multiple areas of potential resistance.
3. Bearish Divergence and the Prior Pivot High
Given how aggressive ARB's previous downtrend was, price remains substantially below its prior major pivot high.
The current price is approximately $0.21, while that pivot high sits around $0.62.
That is a significant distance for price to recover before reclaiming the previous structural high.
I'm also observing bearish divergence on the chart, although I want to distinguish between an actual momentum divergence and the fact that price has not yet recovered its previous pivot high.
The inability to reclaim that pivot high is a structural observation. A confirmed bearish divergence would require price and the oscillator to establish the appropriate opposing swing highs.
4. The Missing Higher Low
One of my biggest concerns is that ARB has not yet established a confirmed higher low on the weekly timeframe.
For me, this is crucial.
A strong recovery in price and momentum does not automatically establish a bullish market structure.
I want to see ARB demonstrate that buyers can defend a meaningful pullback and establish a higher low before becoming more confident that the broader downtrend has changed.
Until that happens, I have to consider the possibility that the current move is simply a recovery within the existing bearish structure.
5. What I'm Watching Next
For now, the most important question is whether ARB can overcome the resistance directly overhead or whether sellers will regain control before a meaningful change in market structure develops.
If price rejects from the current resistance area, I'll be watching how the subsequent pullback develops and whether buyers can establish a higher low.
Alternatively, if ARB manages to reclaim resistance and continue toward the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, I'll be watching how price responds to that level and the prior lows that now represent potential overhead resistance.
Until ARB establishes a meaningful higher low, I'm treating this as a recovery within an unconfirmed bullish structure rather than an established trend reversal.
Personal trading study notes. Not financial advice.
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$BTC — A Rare Weekly MACD Signal
This week's open has produced what I consider a very rare phenomenon for #Bitcoin.
Historically, when Bitcoin has come out of its major bear-market cycles, one of the signals I've tracked is the weekly MACD crossing back above the zero line.
With the current weekly open, we have now seen that happen for what I have identified as only the fifth time in Bitcoin's history.
That's significant to me because crossing above zero means the longer-term MACD momentum has finally transitioned back into positive territory. It doesn't mean Bitcoin has to move straight up from here, and it certainly doesn't eliminate corrections along the way, but from a macro perspective, this is exactly the type of momentum transition I've been waiting to see.
Let the good times roll.
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$ARB — Weekly Market Structure & Potential Rejection
Study Notes | September 20, 2026
I'm questioning whether Arbitrum ($ARB) is approaching another potential rejection point on the weekly timeframe.
There are several observations that have my attention, particularly the historical behavior of the MACD, the current resistance structure, and the fact that ARB has yet to establish a confirmed higher low.
1. Weekly MACD — Historical Reversal Behavior
The previous two times the weekly MACD crossed above the zero line, those events coincided with reversal points that ultimately marked significant highs for ARB.
Now, the MACD is once again approaching a potential cross above zero.
The question I'm asking myself is whether this third occurrence will produce a similar result or whether ARB will finally establish a different market structure.
A MACD cross above zero is generally associated with improving momentum, but ARB's historical behavior makes this particular occurrence worth studying.
2. Resistance and Price Structure
ARB is currently trading around $0.21, just above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
I'm identifying several areas of potential resistance:
An ascending trend line that I would typically associate with an ascending broadening formation, from which price is currently rejecting.
A horizontal resistance level that has already produced two prior rejections.
The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, which aligns with major prior lows that could now act as resistance.
The 0.382 retracement is particularly interesting because I estimate that the weekly RSI could approach approximately 70 if price reaches that area.
With the RSI already above 60, ARB is demonstrating improving momentum, but that strength is developing as price approaches multiple areas of potential resistance.
3. Bearish Divergence and the Prior Pivot High
Given how aggressive ARB's previous downtrend was, price remains substantially below its prior major pivot high.
The current price is approximately $0.21, while that pivot high sits around $0.62.
That is a significant distance for price to recover before reclaiming the previous structural high.
I'm also observing bearish divergence on the chart, although I want to distinguish between an actual momentum divergence and the fact that price has not yet recovered its previous pivot high.
The inability to reclaim that pivot high is a structural observation. A confirmed bearish divergence would require price and the oscillator to establish the appropriate opposing swing highs.
4. The Missing Higher Low
One of my biggest concerns is that ARB has not yet established a confirmed higher low on the weekly timeframe.
For me, this is crucial.
A strong recovery in price and momentum does not automatically establish a bullish market structure.
I want to see ARB demonstrate that buyers can defend a meaningful pullback and establish a higher low before becoming more confident that the broader downtrend has changed.
Until that happens, I have to consider the possibility that the current move is simply a recovery within the existing bearish structure.
5. What I'm Watching Next
For now, the most important question is whether ARB can overcome the resistance directly overhead or whether sellers will regain control before a meaningful change in market structure develops.
If price rejects from the current resistance area, I'll be watching how the subsequent pullback develops and whether buyers can establish a higher low.
Alternatively, if ARB manages to reclaim resistance and continue toward the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, I'll be watching how price responds to that level and the prior lows that now represent potential overhead resistance.
Until ARB establishes a meaningful higher low, I'm treating this as a recovery within an unconfirmed bullish structure rather than an established trend reversal.
Personal trading study notes. Not financial advice.
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