Futurist. AGI/ASI by 2030. Posting about AI,AGI,ASI, Singularity, Post Scarcity, LEV,tech & sci progress. 300 000BC - 2029 = Dark Ages. 2030 - Golden Age Begins
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AI is passing humans
Cost of solving 10 major open problems in mathematics, quantum complexity, and theoretical computer science = less than $2000
That means we're witnessing the beginning of the Singularity or that Sigularity is very close (like one or 2 more iterations of the best AI there is)
Math now, soon physics, chemistry and biology (Nobel level discoveries, superhuman speed). 1000s of major problems solved for 1000s of dollars, soon after that for pennies.
1000x acceleration of progress.
The old world ends at the crossover. The age of superintelligence begins now.
The unimaginable begins now.
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2023: AI scores 64 on the Mensa Norway IQ test, about what you'd get by guessing randomly. Retard level.
2026: 151 IQ. AI maxed out the test. There's no higher score to give.
UPDATE: AIs have achieved the highest *possible* score on the Mensa Norway IQ test - 151
3 years ago: cognitively impaired human (64 IQ)
2 years ago: average human
1 year ago: genius human
Today: literally off the charts
Next year?
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Unpopular opinion in 2026. Things are going to get much better. Cheaper energy, all diseases curable, longer lives, abundance for all.
Save this post and check back in 10 years.
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AI scientific discovery is accelerating. This is what it was always about.
Not AI pictures, memes, or more games. Whether we have 600 human made games a year or 60 000 (AI+ human made), there simply isn’t enough time to try and play them all.
Science is different. Every additional discovery and breakthrough is priceless.
Some can literally save your or someone else life.
Faster progress in physics, chemistry, biology, math = we will reach a post scarcity era much faster.
This is where AI acceleration matters most.
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Another major scientific breakthrough from Anthropic/Claude.
The age of autonomous scientific discovery is here.
Claude just one shotted a frontier theoretical physics calculation 👀
Claude autonomously computed a nine loop scattering amplitude in N=4 super Yang-Mills, a frontier calculation that top physicists had been working toward and that was considered too difficult to attack directly.
It used established physics methods, wrote the necessary code from scratch, ran the computation in two different ways, and reached a result that was independently validated.
It required almost no scientific hand holding beyond essentially "keep working."
The full run would have cost an end user only around $1,000-$2,000, and the author describes it as a major jump from AI doing student like physics projects earlier this year to autonomously completing real frontier research.
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"Theoretical physicists predict how particles behave using formulas called scattering amplitudes. These are notoriously hard to compute, so researchers work with layers of increasingly fine corrections called “loops”—each added loop makes the answer more precise but takes exponentially more computation. Most calculations stop at two or three loops. Eight loops was the previous record in a simplified model physicists use as a testing ground (planar N=4 super-Yang-Mills), set by SLAC's Lance Dixon and collaborators."
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People see tons of headlines like this everyday.
And the media loves doom and gloom headlines.
This is major part of what turns many Americans against or scared by AI. Constant fearmongering in the US media amplified by famous people whom millions actually know and follow, like Bill Gates, saying things like this.
In other words, pro or anti AI sentiment is shaped largely from within a country, by its media, public figures.
If you want to fix the problem, you first need to diagnose it properly.
I don’t think it’s easily fixable. You’d practically have to abolish free media in the Western world.
The only realistic path is to keep showing more positive AI driven discoveries and breakthroughs, while the predicted catastrophes fail to materialize and doomer predictions look increasingly ridiculous with time.
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Somewhere right now, something that will change billions of lives is being tested for the first time.
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Star Trek writers were thinking linearly when they imagined progress from the 1960s to the 2300s.
In reality, technological progress is orders of magnitude faster.
Much of what they imagined for the 2300s will arrive in the 2030s.
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Humanoid robot doom, gloom and panic will hit the fan in 2027.
The media wants and needs clicks, so that’s how most of them will present the subject.
Very few outlets will focus on the positive angle: exploding productivity, wealth building potential, lower costs, and abundance.
Unfortunately, it is what it is. We still live in a pre abundance, money chasing world.
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For me, the most important thing is for other AGI labs (in this case, SpaceXAI) to reach the level where they can start churning out 100 math and biology discoveries on a regular basis.
(~100 today, ~1000s in 2027/28)
It's obviously better to have 300 breakthroughs from 3 labs than 200 from just two.
More discoveries, more progress, the better. That's what will get us to K2 civilization level faster.
I can't wait for the moment SpaceX starts dropping breakthrough after breakthrough, and basically turns scientific discovery into an industrial scale process.
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