DAILY MLB EXPERT PICKS FOR SEPT. 24TH ⚾️
Presented by
@PolymarketSport 📈
@Covers_josh: A game featuring Tyler Mahle and Brady Singer with a total of 7.5 — no wonder THE BAT has it as the best expected ROI total of the day at 18%, with a fair probability of 63%.
Singer might be the worst pitcher in baseball right now, with a 7.53 ERA in the second half and 48 runs allowed in 57 innings across 11 starts. He's allowed three or more runs in each of those 11 games and has been even worse over his last four, giving up 25 runs across 16 innings. He can contribute 90% of this total himself.
Mahle is at 144 innings this year after logging just 125 combined innings over his previous three seasons. His BABIP and LOB% are also showing signs of negative regression. THE BAT is projecting 9.65 runs today in Atlanta.
@JonMetler: I'll back the San Diego Padres at 38%, as I price them closer to a 44% underdog against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The biggest factor for me is the difference in urgency between these two teams. The Dodgers have already clinched a bye and can afford to prioritize postseason preparation over winning this particular game. Tyler Glasnow is a key piece of their potential World Series run, but given his history of durability issues, I don't expect Dave Roberts to push his pitch count tonight.
The Padres, meanwhile, are in a three-way battle for positioning in the Wild Card round and have much more incentive to treat this game like a must-win. I expect San Diego to deploy its high-leverage relievers aggressively and play with urgency, creating an edge at the current 38% price.
@DustinSaracini: The Cleveland Guardians are live underdogs against Ranger Suarez and the Boston Red Sox today, and I'd play this up to 48%.
The last time these two squared off, the Guardians tagged Suarez for four runs on eight hits. This lineup owns a .284 xBA against him across 44 at-bats, which includes Jose Ramirez, who's 5-for-8 versus the lefty.
Joey Cantillo goes for the Guardians, and he's in a groove lately, not allowing a run in 10 straight innings.