European Central Bank Research@ECB_Research

Insights, analysis and other news from @ecb researchers. Authors' views are their own, and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
ecb.europa.eu/pub/research
Joined October 2022
214 Photos and videos
🧵New @ecb Research Bulletin by M. Ferrari Minesso, L. Lebastard, O. Triay Bagur “Connecting payment systems, linking economies” ecb.europa.eu/press/research… 1/5

Connecting payment systems, linking economies

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Not all gains are equal: small economies and regions with the highest payment costs receive the largest trade boost from interlinking. 4/5
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❗️Policy takeaway: the G20's push to interlink fast payment systems is economically justified. Global priorities should be technical standardisation, underserved regions, and regions where cross-border payments are most expensive. 5/5
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🧵New @ecb Working Paper by M. Ampudia, F. Schobert, J. von Landesberger, P. Formoso da Silva, S. Hesse, A. Pütz & A. Wohlert, “Central banks, debt managers, and specialness in the Bund repo market” ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps… 1/4
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High scarcity in the Bund repo market in 2022 was driven by an elevated hedge fund demand for bonds in a segmented repo market. 3/4
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The Eurosystem’s sec lending facilities and the DFA’s repo operations were designed to meet dealers’ collateral needs rather than backstop prices, as they are used for settlement, fail management, and client servicing rather than interdealer-market intermediation. 4/4
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🧵New @ecb Working Paper by M. Khalil, F. Strobel & P. M. Rouillard “Import tariff transmission in a production network” ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps… 1/5
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It identifies two key channels: backward exposure raises input costs, pushing prices up and output down. Forward exposure weakens demand for suppliers when customer industries cut output due to import tariffs, reducing suppliers’ output and prices. 4/5
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Overall, US import tariffs markedly reduce US production. Production network effects outweigh intended protective benefits, at least at business-cycle horizons, highlighting why input-output linkages matter for understanding the macroeconomic impact of trade policy. 5/5
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🧵New @ecb Working Paper by A. Pereira, E. Tereanu & E. Minnella “The devil in the DeTail: assessing state-contingent tail effects of a releasable macroprudential capital buffer using a parsimonious agent-based framework” ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps… 1/2
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Capital buffers are built for bad times. Do they work? Our new agent-based model suggests yes: releasing buffers during downturns improves the downside tails of credit, defaults, and bank losses, with limited impact when buffers are built in upturns. 2/2
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🧵New @ecb Working Paper by E. Beckmann & J. L. Weinel “The changing geography of banking in CESEE. Branch closures outpace openings” ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps… 1/5
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The decline is substantial: across the ten countries, branch numbers fell by more than 30% between 2013 and 2021. But the trend is highly uneven, from modest reductions in North Macedonia to losses of more than half of all branches in Hungary. 4/5
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The results point less to a simple story of digital banking and more to competitive restructuring. Closures are strongly linked to mergers and acquisitions, bank heterogeneity, and local market conditions. Debranching in CESEE is widespread—but far from uniform. 5/5
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