The economy moves in a sequence. Read it before consensus does.
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AI-driven business investment and a large homebuilder profit-margin cushion help explain why the housing downturn has stayed contained. Housing has been one of the weakest parts of the economy since
After-tax corporate profits averaged 5.1% of GDP from 1985 through 1995. Over the twelve quarters ending in Q2 2026, after-tax corporate profits averaged 11.9% of GDP. Relative to the size of the
The stock market keeps setting records, but most Americans don't feel any richer. One number explains the gap, and the AI boom is making it worse. Before diving into the post, I wanted to let you
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Before diving into the post, I wanted to let you know that EPB Research has a free Sunday newsletter. One email per week with ongoing business cycle education plus live examples of the framework in
Before diving into the article, I wanted to let you know that EPB Research has a free Sunday newsletter. One email per week with ongoing business cycle education plus live examples of the framework in
Corporate profit margins just hit 20.6%, the highest level on record. At the same time, the income the typical worker earns from a job has stalled and slipped below the trend of the last expansion.
Housing was stabilizing for the first time in three years. Then the war reignited inflation and pushed mortgage rates higher, threatening the brewing recovery in the economy's most important sector.
Half of the major US cities are at all-time highs in home prices right now. The other half just went through a true correction. The same Federal Reserve, same mortgage rates, and same monetary policy,
