ESPN writer, professional nerd. SP+. Author of three books (Forward Progress, Study Hall and 50 Best*). College football, soccer, tennis. Puma addiction.
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Bill Connelly retweeted
* Vols enter the conversation
* Is Florida's offense really this good?
* Oregon-USC: Who has the defense?
* Say it with me: PLAYOFF IOWA
* Kalamazoo, center of the G6 universe
* Chaos superfecta! Playlist! Chili roasters! YOTES-OREDIGGERS!
WEEK 4 PREVIEW: espn.com/college-football/st…
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Bill Connelly retweeted
NEW "Numbers & Words:" The Jimbo Fisher FSU rumors felt so stupid to me that I made @ESPN_BillC listen to me rant about nostalgia hires rss.com/podcasts/phantom-isl…
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Enjoyed chatting for this. Still not sure what JMU had against Wagner, but for the most part this phenomenon is basically (a) the P4-G6 and FBS-FCS splits have increased a bit and (b) fewer P4s want to play the GOOD G6/FCS teams.
New @AthlonSports: College football has seen some eye-popping blowouts already this season. But are they bigger than before? And why? I spoke with @ESPN_BillC about the spike in 70- and 80-point wins just three weeks into the 2026 season.
athlonsports.com/college-foo…
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Bill Connelly retweeted
Georgia and Oklahoma are finally playing for a second time this week. That gave me all the reason I needed to relive their first meeting, a.k.a. the best playoff game of the CFP era.
It also gave me an excuse to RANK CFP GAMES.
espn.com/college-football/st…
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Georgia and Oklahoma are finally playing for a second time this week. That gave me all the reason I needed to relive their first meeting, a.k.a. the best playoff game of the CFP era.
It also gave me an excuse to RANK CFP GAMES.
espn.com/college-football/st…
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[drum roll] And the Week 3 Heisman Trophy goes to ... DUH, TRINIDAD CHAMBLISS. He was so good, he made Lane Kiffin ignore math.
Gordie Lockbaum of the week: Dante Reno!
Horse race leaders after 3 weeks: Chambliss and Kamario Taylor, neck and neck...
espn.com/college-football/st…
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Fun question. Williams, Daniels and Hunter were on from the start, but it looks like Mendoza didn't show up till Week 4 last year (and then didn't again until Week 8).
What would you say is the % chance that the ultimate winner is someone who has not made a top 10 weekly list? What is the latest in the year that the eventual winner first appeared?
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Bill Connelly retweeted
[drum roll] And the Week 3 Heisman Trophy goes to ... DUH, TRINIDAD CHAMBLISS. He was so good, he made Lane Kiffin ignore math.
Gordie Lockbaum of the week: Dante Reno!
Horse race leaders after 3 weeks: Chambliss and Kamario Taylor, neck and neck...
espn.com/college-football/st…
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Bill Connelly retweeted
35 teams remain unbeaten after Week 3, but who takes the No. 1 spot 👀
@ESPN_BillC ranks them all ⤵️
spr.ly/6012BGbbUj
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 772
* Ohio State -149 Oberlin
* Illinois State -3 Stanford
* Ferris State -2.5 Bowling Green
* Cornell -64 Cornell
* We have a new No. 772 (and if you've been paying attention, you know who it is)!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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Bill Connelly retweeted
What do we do after 3 weeks? WE RANK THE UNBEATENS. From Georgia 😤 to UMass 🥹, I ranked the 35 remaining something-and-0 teams.
Also: SP+ movers and my favorite games of the week, including an IMPORTANT SCOREBOARD MALFUNCTION.
SUNDAY RECAP COLUMN: espn.com/college-football/st…
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SP+ is updated through Week 3!
* The top 7 are separated by 6.5 points
* No. 8 through 24 are separated by 7.2
* The top G6 team: YOUR NORTH DAKOTA STATE BISON
* No. 1 résumé: Texas
* The most curious ranking: Ole Miss
espn.com/college-football/st…
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I dunno, seems like it’s adapting pretty well. You at least have to wait until a random bad week before calling it the one of the worst measures ever.
Horrendously bad. If your formulae is putting out terrible rankings, you have to update and adjust the formula. Adapt or die. This is unabridged with Ole Miss at 20. One of worst rankings ever
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Been saying it for almost 20 years. How you play is as important as who you play, and we have the tools to determine who’s playing well.
I guess I don't understand how teams like Indiana and Penn State (who have played no one) can he given any kind of rating. How do you predict future games with OOC schedules like that?
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WEEK 4 SP+ PICKS
Texas 29, Tennessee 28
LSU 27, A&M 23
Oregon 30, USC 29
Georgia 31, OU 18
Michigan 23.2, Iowa 22.9!
Mizzou 27.1, Miss St 26.6!
Indiana 35, Northwestern 14
Ohio State 37, Illinois 16
Utah 29, Iowa St 20
Bama 30, S Caro 21
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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Résumé SP+ after 3 weeks:
1 Texas
2 Utah
3 Georgia
4 Notre Dame
5 Alabama
6 Florida
7 Tennessee
8 Northwestern
9 Mississippi State
10 Indiana
11 Miami
12 Nebraska
13 Penn State
14 Pitt
15 Iowa
(Reminder: Résumé SP+ is how you've played your opponents vs. a top-5 standard.)
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Lowest Postgame Win Expectancy in a win, Week 3:
SELA > ULM 30.1%
Marshall > Mo St 34.0%
Florida > Auburn 43.5%
S Ala > Ohio 44.0%
Pretty straightforward week, statistically.
Full games list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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