An optimist who assumes everyone is full of shit or lazy. Smart because he forgets. Fuck everyone against sensible gun reform. 👨👩👦👦👶🏻🐶🍔🍺🏀⚾️📊🤘
East Bay via NY via PSU via NJ
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Short-term: trend > value > fundamentals
Long-term: fundamentals > value > trend
Investors need to be aligned with process AND time horizon
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Jake retweeted
After a 2 year hiatus the NBA Almanac is officially back for the 2026-2027 NBA season.
The Almanac will be released exclusively through gumroad on October 20th.
nbaalmanac.gumroad.com
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It’s the PE backed hospitals, not the insurance companies that are typically blamed, that are the evil entities driving up healthcare prices
The Blue Cross/Blue Shield Association says that AI is already driving *up* healthcare costs, as hospitals use the technology to find instances where they can bill more for the same level of care. bcbs.com/about-us/associatio…
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More likely over the next 10 years…
36%
2% annualized inflation
64%
4% annualized inflation
485 votes • Final results
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The Mets saved ~$11mm this year signing Polanco instead of Alonso, while the revenue from the decline in attendence cost ~$20-40mm
You can decide on your own if the two are connected, but Polanco hit .148 with 2 home runs, had a 0.431 OPS and -1.4 WAR while Alonso hit 41 home runs, had a 0.871 OPS, and 4.6 WAR
Mets' attendance at Citi Field dropped 14.8% this season — The team had just one sellout this season, which was Opening Day.
newsday.com/app/sports/baseb…
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Which would you prefer to lock in for the next 10 years?
23%
7% nominal return
77%
4% real return
579 votes • Final results
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6'10" without shoes is wild considering his game. Flagg is now taller than guys like Bam Adebayo and Jarrett Allen.
He's legitimately center-sized.
Cooper Flagg says at Mavericks Media Day that he has indeed grown from his listed height last season of 6-foot-9 to an official measurement yesterday without shoes of 6-foot-10.
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What matters is 1) opportunity cost, 2) what these returns look like after inflation and taxes.
1) Two-year treasuries already gives you most of the yield with limited duration downside.
2) Then assuming 3% inflation and ~33% tax rate on the ~5% (taxed irrespective of the performance):
-Rates -100 bps: +11.9% nominal / +8.6% real pre-tax / +7.0% real after-tax
-Rates unchanged: +5.0% / +1.9% / +0.3%
-Rates +100 bps: -1.9% / -4.8% / -6.4%
To me cash+ strategies are more interesting right now than nominal duration risk.
Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasury yield? Maybe not, but for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion that if the 10-year yield were to fall 100 bps, an investor would make 11.9%, while only losing 1.9% if the yield were to rise to 6%.
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What a f’n loser
BREAKING: US President Donald Trump has banned CNN, MSNOW and Politico from the White House.
Our US correspondent @jamesmatthewsky says this is "a significant escalation" in terms of "restricting the freedom of the press".
Latest: trib.al/JVsB0Ie
📺 Sky 501 and YouTube
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Boomers could get a cheap college education, buy an affordable home, watch inflation eat away at that mortgage, land a job with a pension, invest their prime earnings years in 10% yielding Treasuries, earn even more in stocks, buy a cheap vacation home after the financial crisis, refinance it below 3% in 2020–21, and now can ride into the sunset in TIPS yielding 3%+ above inflation.
And now they’re leaving all that abundance to Gen X, Xennials, and Millennials… Gen Z screwed again.
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Jake retweeted
Trump projected that mortgage rates will fall to around 3% under his administration. #mortgage
By @ByKyleCampbell nationalmortgagenews.com/new…
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Jake retweeted
“You are absolutely right to be angry with me. Those were confidential, internal, documents and I should have handled them with a greater level of discretion. Would you like me to help you draft your resignation letter?”
MORGAN STANLEY ACCIDENTALLY LEAKS 100+ DEAL PIPELINE
A Morgan Stanley employee mistakenly emailed an internal document detailing more than 100 investment-banking deals being pitched or monitored across Asia and other regions.
The list reportedly included potential IPOs, private-equity backers, pension funds and paused projects.
Morgan Stanley said it promptly addressed the inadvertent disclosure and is engaging with relevant parties.
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Since 1982 (important starting point in the chart) rate cuts have occurred when the economy was slowing (or entering recession) and hikes occurred in periods when the economy was back on track... the question is whether that will hold going forward if inflation (rather than growth) becomes the key concern of monetary policy.
The S&P 500 averages a 14.9% return in the 12 months after a Fed rate hike.
That's higher than the 11.2% average following a rate cut.
Narrative violation.
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