What became of the Alawite insurgency that emerged from Assadist networks on the Syrian Coast? - from active insurgency to dormant cells.
2026 has so far confirmed the trend observed in the 2nd half of 2025: the steady decrease of attacks, followed by a complete lull during the last 9 months - the latest attempted attack was in January.
This strategic deadlock comes from a simple fact: despite potentially being able to mobilize a large number of fighters (many are in Lebanon), the insurgents don't have a realistic way to seize & hold the Coastal Areas.
Insurgent leaders certainly closely watched - and likely with consternation - the January Government Offensive vs
#SDF, incl. its swift results in the highly fortified Sheikh Maqsoud district, a YPG stronghold.
A Coastal insurgent group later acknowledged to have lost fighters there, while fighting Government forces.
A sustained insurgency with regular attacks on the Coast could also expose the Alawite population to retaliatory attacks, potentially creating a vicious cycle of retaliations & counter-retaliations, while the Coastal Areas remained quiet - in contrast to more frequent attacks in provinces such as Homs or Hama.
Security forces didn't remain idle either, but adapted their strategy: targeting the groups that remained active, while tracking those involved in the 6 March onslaught.
Interestingly, the attacks carried out between August & October 2025 didn't come from the main insurgent group - the Coastal Shield Brigade - but from a smaller group called "Men of Light" (aka "Saraya Jawad").
The group appears to have specialized in IED attacks: 3 attacks were carried out in 2nd half of 2025 & one was thwarted in January, but none produced casualties.
They justified 2 of these attacks as retaliations for Alawite civilians - incl. a female teacher - killed in Homs & Hama provinces.
The group also appears to have been involved in the online leak of the passports of Syrian Officials who went to Lebanon in October 2025.
Men of Light therefore attracted most of the Security attention this year.
Latakia Security commander specifically linked those behind Men of Light's IED attacks in Latakia & Tartus to the July 25 operation that killed them, as well as to the January 24 operation that arrested members who carried out unspecified attacks.
The group was also the first to be decapitated: its leader was killed in the February operation carried out in S. Latakia countryside, where the group appears to have its main base - all 3 cells busted were hiding in Beit Yashout countryside (see map).
All these operations appear to have been based on precise Intelligence, often provided by residents.
In the November 2025 operation targeting Azrael Regiment members in Baniyas countryside, the group openly complained about this reality, labeling it a "betrayal by the Alawite community".
For instance, at least 2 Alawite residents from Salhab (W. Hama) were executed by Alawite anti-Government insurgents in September & October 2025 - the cell was busted in July.
For its part, the Coastal Shield Brigade, considered the largest group & notably involved in the 6 March 2025 onslaught, didn't carry out attacks in one year.
Most of its members appear to be in Lebanon, incl. its chief Fatiha, but some continue to travel between the 2 countries, as the border remains porous.
Separately, the 2nd strand of the Security interventions targeted insurgents involved in the 6 March attacks - at least 20 were arrested this year, incl. some members of the Coastal Shield Brigade.
The broader 2026 pattern is therefore that Security forces shifted from reacting to a wider insurgent threat toward specifically targeting the remaining active cells & those involved in the 6 March attacks.
Men of Light became the main focus because of its IED activity, while other insurgent groups ceased attacks.
The situation on the Coast doesn't appear likely to change in the short term, as the strategic balance remains favorable to Damascus.
It hence appears likely to follow the trend observed so far in 2026: very few or no attacks, combined with occasional Security raids against remaining cells & participants in the 6 March attacks.
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* Documented IED attacks on the Coast since Summer 2025:
- January 10, 2026: IEDs dismantled near the Highway in Baniyas
- October 27, 2025: IED destroyed an empty Police vehicle in Tartus
- September 29, 2025: IED targeting a military vehicle on Jablah Highway - no casualties
- August 14, 2025: military vehicle targeted by an IED on the Highway near Jablah - no casualties
* Security operations vs active cells past 12 months:
- July 25, 2026: 2 Men of Light & Saraya Kumait commanders killed in Falasqo
- July 5, 2026: 7-member cell that killed Alawite individuals accused of collaboration dismantled in the Ghab
- February 24, 2026: 3 Men of Light members killed, incl. the overall leader near Hamam Qarahle
- January 24, 2026: 3 Men of Light members arrested in various locations in Latakia province (Qerdaha, Haffah & Jablah)
- December 24, 2025: 2 Men of Light members killed in Baabda, 1 captured & 1 escaped
- November 3, 2025: 3 Azrael Regiment members arrested in Baniyas countryside, 1 killed
-> 8 insurgents - incl. 3 commanders - killed & 14 captured in the operations listed above.