Electoral Calculus (electoralcalculus.co.uk) is a quantitative political consultancy, well-known for its website of election predictions and data.
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General Election prediction for Keir Starmer's seat, Holborn and St Pancras, shows Labour holding if a GE were held now, with a tight contest against the Greens.
Please note this is a general election prediction not a by-election prediction, as by-elections behave differently.
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Our voter transition graphic shows how party support has changed since the 2024 GE.
• Established parties continue to lose votes
• Insurgent parties gain
• Few voters crossover between left and right
Full graphic⬇️
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
and video⬇️
piped.video/watch?v=qF0aOxDq…
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There has been a 'Burnham bounce' in the polling numbers this month with Labour back in first place and Reform UK in third. When translated into seats, this puts Labour ahead of the Conservative by over 100 seats.
More details: electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
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Should Andy Burnham call a snap general election?
In the latest Politics By Numbers episode, we look at what history tells us about PMs who inherit office between elections and the surprising link between Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Winston Churchill ⬇️
piped.video/watch?v=OYGvjPJu…
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Tune in to yesterday's @bbc5live to hear Martin Baxter discuss the key challenges facing Andy Burnham as he heads to No.10 ⬇️
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002yx…
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Could London's political map really look like this after the next general election? standard.co.uk/news/politics…
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Our new MRP poll for @PLMRLtd shows Labour in first place with a Burnham boost on 217, ahead of the Conservatives on 151 and Reform on 127. Restore Britain is also included.
If a general election were held now, our numbers point to a hung parliament.
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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Most polling in June was done before Keir Starmer resigned as PM. Our poll-of-polls has #Labour and #Conservatives up a bit this month, the #Greens down and if an election happened now #Reform would be the largest party but well short of a majority Details:electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
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Martin Baxter assesses Andy Burnham's popularity amongst voters. He looks at a poll that says he would put Labour three points ahead of Reform if he became the new Labour leader.
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Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Greens have lost 1pc of support since April. If a general election happened now, #Reform would be the largest party but short of a majority and would need #Conservative support. #Labour would be third largest party.
Details:electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
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'This was particularly fertile hunting ground for Reform for votes...'
Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus discusses Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's odds of winning a by-election in Makerfield, as he make a bid to become Prime Minister.
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Our latest newsletter looks at the political drama of the week, with Andy Burnham's possible return to Westminster via Makerfield.
Plus, Politics By Numbers digs into the seven political tribes shaping Britain.
Watch➡️piped.video/@ElectCalc
ALT Makerfield LSDM
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For the Senedd election tomorrow, we predict Plaid Cymru and Reform to be the two largest parties. Neither is forecast to win a majority but Plaid will likely lead the next coalition government. Plaid's central forecast is 35 seats with a range of 25 to 42
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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As of Wed 6 May, Electoral Calculus predicts that the SNP will continue in government after the Holyrood elections on 7 May. Central forecast of 65 seats, a bare majority, with a predicted range of 55 to 69 seats.
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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Our latest poll-of-polls has #Reform slightly down but still ahead, though far short of a majority. They would need #Conservative support to govern, with #Labour as the opposition. #PlaidCymru has doubled its predicted seats since last month. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
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Our latest MRP poll for @PLMRLtd suggests that if a general election were held now Reform could still form a government with Conservative support.
Reform remains the largest party but is down to 24pc from 31pc in our January poll
Full findings here ⬇️
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
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