Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections.
Gainesville, FL
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Michael McDonald retweeted
I've posted an analysis of what we can learn from early voting so far michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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#earlyvote morning update 9/22: at least 117,177 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…
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With NJ mail ballot data available for five counties, with a breakout of overseas civilian and military voters, it is possible to better understand who has voted in NC and NJ and what it means as a measure of voter enthusism among partisans michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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#earlyvote update 9/5: 10 people have voted in the 2026 general election election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…
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I'll occasionally post updates here. I post more frequently where the sky is blue. Same handle @electproject
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Florida Democratic primary turnout was down -256,053 compared to 2022, a decline nearly equal to the fewer number of mail ballot cast by registered Democrats -- which may be a result of changes to how mail ballot requests now work under SB90 michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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I wrote an analysis of the 2026 Florida Primary Turnout michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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How Trump can use his Thursday national address to decertify Dominion (aka Liberty Vote) voting equipment, causing a headache for 11 states (including Georgia) michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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I analyzed turnout by race and Hispanic ethnicity in Virginia's redistricting amendment vote michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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I analyzed party registration turnout and candidate vote shares for yesterday's three Florida special elections open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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I posted a 2026 Texas Primary turnout and early voting analysis open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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A rule-of-thumb forecast that might be informative moving forward is to take the special election margin shifts over the next year and divide by half. I explain here michaelmcdonald.substack.com…
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Posted VEP turnout rates for the 2025 statewide elections, with an analysis open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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I did a Virginia turnout analysis open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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Updated the early vote analysis for California, where registered Democrats slightly improved their position from my update last Friday. They're going into today with a +5.5 point shift from 2024 in the early vote open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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Continuing to update early voting analyses more states as data become available. New Jersey added most recently. You'll have to follow me on the other site where an algorithm doesn't control your feed if you want real time updates open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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Last early vote update of the day from Virginia posted open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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