“Partisanship is dead, and candidate quality is alive!”

Our @ZacharyDonnini joined CBS's @TakeoutPodcast to explain on the big board what’s driving Democrats to all-time highs in VoteHub’s Senate and House forecasts, from the Rio Grande Valley to Ohio.

There's a lot of polls going around right now, and I want to caution people against treating them all the same. Something to look at is who the pollster is and who sponsors it. I would say that there are three types of quality pollsters: -Colleges -Major media sponsored -Longtime pollsters Quality college pollsters include Marist (shoutout @ElliscbIV), Quinnipiac, and Emerson Major media sponsored includes Ipsos (ABC, Reuters), YouGov (CBS, Economist), and the Fox News poll with a Dem and Rep pollster teaming up Longtime pollsters includes Gallup and Pew Just be weary of polls from someone you have not heard of, or don't fit one of these three categories!

The first midterm ballot in New Hampshire has been cast, in New Boston. Using voter file data through our partnership with @L2political, we estimate Chris Pappas (D) has banked 1 vote. So far, 6,660 Granite Staters have requested mail ballots. We estimate Pappas will win those 68%-32%, contributing to a projected final margin of Pappas +8.

Hamilton’s chances have skyrocketed in our forecast, driven by strong state polls and an overall blue shift in the generic ballot. Meanwhile, Osborn’s leaked comments risk tarnishing his “independent” brand.

Among Senate Republicans up for re-election, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) broke with Trump most often on 2025 floor votes, while still voting in line with him 94.6% of the time, per @tsyang27's analysis. Democrats showed far more variation in their voting records.

Democrats now lead the generic ballot by more than 8 points, nearing their largest lead ever in our polling average after hovering around D+6 for much of the summer.

BREAKING — The Supreme Court has again blocked Missouri from using its 7R-1D congressional map in the 2026 midterms, keeping the 2022 map in place. 🔴 Republicans: 6 (-1) 🔵 Democrats: 2 (+1)

🌕 Dark mode is now live all across VoteHub! A small quality-of-life improvement for anyone still staring at elections at 1 a.m.

Hamilton vs. Marshall net favorability: 🟢 Emerson: Hamilton +18 (+11 vs. -7) 🟢 Coefficient: Hamilton +9 (+7 vs. -2) 🟢 GSG: Hamilton +17 (+10 vs. -7) Ads like these may only further widen the already worrying gap for Marshall.

National Republicans are hoping that a late cash influx from MAGA money can blunt losses in November. Will the $$ help? Republican U.S. Senate candidates held the airwaves in the late summer, but polling has slipped ever more for the GOP in the last few weeks.

No one talked about this in our PA State Senate polls but this is something underdiscussed in terms of Republicans' problem this year: the under 45 GOP voters are just way less likely to show up than the under 45 DEM voters. projects.statenavigate.com/i…

Paxton nets a point on Talarico since August, but Talarico is closing in on 50%. Paxton needs to chip away at his vote share, yet it keeps growing. Meanwhile, the opposite on the gubernatorial front: Hinojosa nets 3 points on Abbott, who’s now hit 50%.

Trump disapproval officially hit 60% on average for the first time. This has never happened before, not even in the immediate aftermath of J6.

Here’s a surprise: Schumer will invest in Texas. Given the DSCC’s money woes, it seemed likely Talarico would be left to rely on his own record-breaking fundraising. With this extra money now flowing toward him, Paxton’s path to claw back the lead gets even tougher.

Coming tomorrow morning: The 2026 midterms are approaching. We’re digging into what Iowa & Texas voters are thinking, important issues, & how much President Trump is factoring into the congressional vote. Subscribe now: maristpoll.com/podcast airtable.com/appGAl4YnCMc41Y…

40 days, 0 hours, 0 minutes. Until the first polls close in the 2026 midterms.

Since the last update: 🟥 Jackson: +13 events, +1 interview 🟦 KLB: +8 events, +4 interviews Jackson nets 5 events on KLB, extending his lead to 8, while KLB continues to hold the edge in interviews.

National polls continue to be really, really good for Democrats this week (and really bad for Trump approval) while race-level polls continue to be all over the place. This makes sense because (1) It’s a midterm year, and crazy stuff happens and (2) poll nonresponse is hard to deal with so weighting really matters. Every pollster’s weighted electorate looks a bit different, and no one knows exactly what the electorate will look like in the end because that’s still to be determined.