Reports of a potential diesel export ban are stirring markets, putting renewed focus on a theme we flagged six weeks ago: crude volatility will be driven by geopolitical headlines, but refined products still have to price in the underlying tightness. In early August, WTI was below $80 and investors were positioning for a glut. We argued that record crack spreads were masking persistent inflation pressure even as oil prices remained locked in a range. On August 4th, we changed our Fed call to a 25 bp September hike. On September 16th, the FOMC delivered a 25 bp hike. Chair Warsh pointed to the same overlooked signal: crack spreads and the inflation pressure they carry. Energy prices are reshaping the rates story. Get the Energy Aspects view on the implications for markets, inflation and the macro outlook. Request an EA 360 demo today (link in comments). #Macro #FederalReserve #Oil

We flagged this last Friday. The satellites confirmed it on Monday. On 18 September, our market soundings showed Saudi Arabia had secured 30 vessels for Hormuz shuttle operations, with loadings into the Middle East Gulf approaching two a day. By Monday, 21 September, satellite tracking confirmed the move: total Hormuz vessel loadings had climbed to 5.6 a day, the highest since the conflict began, led by Saudi Arabia. The call came first. The satellite feed confirmed it three days later. What's the next call sitting in our data that the market hasn't caught up to yet? Start your 2-week trial today to find out: ow.ly/HpTf50ZQg3u #OIl #Hormuz #OOTT

"What is really driving the market, what is driving yields, bonds, everything, is diesel prices, and that continues to remain at record highs" @ea_amrita, Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, was on @CNBC yesterday discussing the driving factors of oil markets. Alongside discussing the Middle East conflict, Amrita also spoke on oil flows, crude prices, and even though we've seen pullbacks over the past couple of months, the flow for prices is higher. Watch the full interview here: ow.ly/19Ug50ZQ4NT #OilMarkets #OOTT #EnergyAspects@ea

Could the Hormuz LNG tanker crisis keep EU gas prices at winter-crisis levels for months to come? Energy Aspects' Global Head of Gas, Livia Gallarati, joined Bloomberg earlier today to break down where TTF is headed next. Starting at 18:00, Livia also covered: - Why EU gas prices could hold near current levels this winter if Hormuz LNG disruption drags on for another 3-6 months - Why TTF isn't likely to hit $100 in the near term - Whether Qatari LNG exports can rise - China's role in gas demand, and the global demand picture Watch the full interview: ow.ly/GZiQ50ZOmSt #EnergyAspects #TTF #Hormuz #LNG

Daily read on the transatlantic gasoline arb, built from a full blend optimisation across 20+ ARA components. Non-linear octane, RVP, updated every session. Already feeding our Weekly Oil Products call. #RBOB #GasolineMarkets #OOTT

'We've been telling our clients for some time now, crude is poised to move sharply higher' Founder and Director of Market Intelligence @ea_amrita was live on @CNBC yesterday discussing crude pricing. During this interview, Amrita covered: - The 'eyewatering' pace of crude drawdowns in inventory and the numbers since the middle of August - How, now runs have started to pick back up, we've seen a massive over-tightening in crude markets - A mixed long-term outlook, from restocking demand to oversupply concerns, and even the risk of recession You can watch the full interview here - cnbc.com/video/2026/09/09/am… #EnergyAspects #Crude #OOTT

What happens to freight costs if this gap doesn't close? Ship fuel sales are down ~400,000 b/d since April vs 6.9 million b/d a year ago, a supply loss on the scale of China's entire bunker market. EA's Royston Huan explains why to Al Jazeera: aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/7/…

"I think this will be one of the single most important geopolitical events in modern history. The grand bargain is broken, and it's broken in the Middle East. This is likely the end of the exorbitant privilege and the benefits of hegemony." Jeff Currie, Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects, did not hold back at our Singapore Reception today. Jeff joined Founder and Director of Market Intelligence @ea_amrita for a 1-1 conversation, covering geopolitics, the macro crude picture, and the setup into year-end. His read on winter: "Gas and diesel will battle each other through the winter. They'll pull each other higher, very like 2021 and 2022." Ahead of that conversation, our analysts framed the market: Amrita on the crude picture, George Dix on refining margins, and Clare Morris on where products go from here, followed by a live Q&A that ran long for good reason. The networking lunch that followed carried the energy. Clients and peers left with a lot to think about for positioning into Q4. Thank you to everyone who joined us. The questions and challenges in the room made the session. #APPEC2026 #EnergyMarkets

More LNG is coming. So why does Europe still need storage? A major wave of new LNG supply will reshape the global gas market over the rest of this decade. But it will not eliminate Europe’s need for flexibility. Europe has lost Groningen swing supply, most Russian pipeline optionality and much of its coal–gas switching capacity. That leaves storage playing an increasingly important role in managing seasonal demand and supply shocks, even when a backwardated market makes filling storage commercially challenging. At Gastech 2026 in Bangkok, Erisa Pasko, European Gas Lead at Energy Aspects, will examine how regulation is reshaping storage economics, why storage can still generate returns through optionality even when seasonal spreads are negative, and what that means for TTF and the global LNG market. Listen to Erisa live on Wednesday 16 September, 13:30–14:30: "The impact of regulation on European gas supply." #EnergyAspects #Gastech

While others may tell you the market moved, EA E&P Intelligence tells you which operator moved, satellite-verified, by basin, 2–3 months before EIA and public reporting cycles. What EA E&P Intelligence does: ›350+ operators tracked, including privates, satellite-verified and updated weekly by basin, so you see who's actually adding or pulling back before it ever shows up in the aggregate count. ›2–3 months ahead of EIA and public reporting cycles on drilling, DUC inventory, completions, and wells turn-in-line, so your supply model runs on current operator activity, not lagged government data. ›95% US shale coverage across Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Marcellus, Haynesville, DJ, and Appalachian, so you get basin-by-basin resolution instead of one blended national number. Learn more about E&P Intelligence here - ow.ly/cYHM50ZBVRX #EnergyAspects #EPIntelligence

Taking place from 24-27 August in Stavanger, Norway, @ea_amrita will be appearing at the ONS Conference. Energy Aspects' Founder and Director of Research has three roles on stage this year: moderating the Opening Ceremony (Mon 24 Aug), moderating a Leadership Dialogue with ABB CEO Morten Wierød (Tue 25 Aug, 12:00), and speaking directly on "Climate reality 2026: the truth about where we stand, and what must change" (Tue 25 Aug, 14:00). If you're at ONS, these are the three sessions worth clearing your calendar for. #ONS2026 #EnergyAspects #EnergyTransition

T5 at Qatar North just went offline. We know because we can see it from space. Kayrros LNG Intelligence monitors thermal signatures at individual train level across every major LNG facility. Proprietary satellite data, direct from the facility, in real time. Yesterday's image: thermal signatures at T6 and T7 North only. T5 North, active last week, is now dark. Five trains online across QatarEnergy facilities in total, down one week-on-week. The market narrative this week has been about Qatari capacity recovering. Proprietary data tells a different story, and tells it first. #LNG #Qatar #Kayrros #EnergyMarkets *Data as of 12 Aug 2026

Join Randy Hurburun, Head of Refining at Energy Aspects, at IMC 26 on 4 November as he explores the shifts reshaping methanol markets. European refining is facing overcapacity. Energy transition pressures are intensifying. Integrated petrochemical hubs are moving eastward. And feedstock substitution in Asian petrochemicals is reshaping chemical margins. Through it all, methanol sits at the nexus of energy, shipping, and decarbonisation. Randy's oil and gas market outlook session will assess the refining fundamentals and feedstock dynamics reshaping methanol demand across Asia and Europe. Secure your place at IMC 26. Early bird pricing available now. ow.ly/WnH650ZyBnF #EnergyAspects #IMC26 #Methanol