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Key insights from PB Fintech’s investor call on the proposed insurance distribution regulations & their likely impact: - Management gave an example where an agent currently earning around 15,000 for selling a fresh health insurance policy could receive only around 3,500-3,750 under the proposed structure. - Health insurance appears to be the most affected segment because commissions on both fresh business & renewals could decline sharply. - Management estimates that under the current proposal, GI economics could fall to only around one-third to 40% of current levels. Life insurance NPV economics are relatively similar to the existing structure, although not exactly the same. - PB Fintech’s core business REV mix is broadly 50% General Insurance & 50% Life Insurance. Management illustrated that if GI REV falls by around 60%, total core REV could initially compress by around 30% before considering volume growth or cost savings. - Policybazaar historically spends heavily acquiring younger customers upfront & earns economics over the customer lifecycle through renewals. A sharp reduction in renewal commissions can materially alter this model. Management said it now needs to determine how its existing economic arrangement with insurers evolves. - However, management believes lower commissions could translate into lower insurance prices for customers. PB operates with insurers through a combined operating ratio framework, so if distribution costs decline & savings are passed to customers, lower prices could drive additional volumes. - Management assumes price elasticity of around 1. This means every 1% reduction in insurance prices could potentially generate around 1% additional volumes. Based on this, management believes roughly 15-20% of the initial impact could potentially be recovered through higher growth. - Policybazaar is likely to shift from a "growth at any cost" approach toward more rational growth. Digital marketing, brand spending, hiring & customer acquisition will reduce going forward. - PB hired around 6,000 people in H1 because it was aggressively investing for growth. Management suggested that under the new economics, it might have hired closer to 2,000 instead. - The regulations could push PB Fintech to monetise services that are currently provided without separate REV. These include PB Garages, PB Care+, hospital networks, claims support, technology, administration & reinsurance related activities. - These services are operated through separate entities rather than the insurance distribution entity. Management therefore sees scope for potentially monetising them independently depending on how the final rules are structured. - One major strategic consequence could be PB Fintech moving further into insurance manufacturing. Management said the proposed rules increase the probability of Policybazaar eventually having its own manufacturing capability.

IT services stocks are sliding down TCS: -44% Infosys: -40% Wipro: -49% 5 year return divergence within the sector is massive

Anyone can make promises or paint an ambitious picture. Believe in actions, not words. Talk is cheap. Execution is what ultimately matters.

EV is the long term direction, but the transition will be gradual Most OEMs are still betting on a multi fuel Hybrids are gaining traction until charging infrastructure improves src : MOFSL

Valuations of exchanges in India vs AMCs BSE & NSE both trading at around 35x FY28E P/E Which one would you bet on? 👀 src: Emkay

AI related exposure is only around 16% of MSCI India Taiwan & Korea have 70-80% AI exposure, mainly through semiconductors & hardware China & Japan also have much higher exposure at around 30-50% src : Goldman Sachs

40% gone in a matter of 2 sessions Stocks climb through stairs and fall through elevators

Regulatory risk is real & must never be ignored while investing We have seen this across multiple sectors: - IRDAI : commission caps, expense limits and distribution rules can directly impact insurers - RBI : lending rules, risk weights, provisioning norms, digital lending guidelines etc - SEBI : changes in F&O regulations, exchange frameworks, other regulations etc - Income Tax & GST : tax demands, retrospective interpretations, compliance disputes etc - US FDA : observations, warning letters or import alerts - TRAI / DoT - tariff rules, spectrum norms, telecom regulations - Environment authorities : approvals, pollution norms & plant shutdown risks for manufacturing companies - DGCA : regulatory changes for airlines & aviation companies - Government policy : duties, subsidies, import restrictions, export bans, PLI related changes etc There have also been episodes around hospital pricing regulations, gold import duty changes, windfall taxes, gaming GST changes & several others. We have seen several such examples over the years - Delta Corp, IIFL Finance, IEX and many others getting impacted because of regulatory or policy changes. This is why diversification matters!

Policybazaar today is a perfect example of how F&O stock price bands work F&O stocks do not have a fixed daily 10% or 20% circuit limit. Instead, they operate with dynamic price bands. Yesterday's close: 1,886.30 Initial 10% lower band: ~1,698 After first flex at 15%: ~1,603 After second flex at 20%: ~1,509 After third flex at 23%: ~1,452 After fourth flex at 26%: ~1,396 That is exactly why the chart looks like a staircase

For F&O stocks, the circuit system works differently from normal cash market stocks F&O stocks do not have a fixed 5%, 10% or 20% daily upper/lower circuit Instead, they operate with dynamic price bands The current NSE mechanism broadly works like this⏬

Insurance stocks in free fall after IRDAI consultation paper🔻 IRDAI has released a major consultation paper titled “Recalibrating Economics of Insurance Distribution”, proposing tighter controls on how much insurers can spend on distribution, commissions & customer acquisition. The biggest impact of IRDAI’s proposed changes could impact insurance distributors Policybazaar & Turtlemint primarily earn by distributing insurance products & receiving commissions from insurers. If commission caps come down, their take rates & unit economics get hit directly. This is potentially a significant reset of insurance distribution economics.

NSE is set to list tomorrow At the upper IPO price of 1,785, NSE is valued at 4.42 lakh Cr At different listing prices: - 1,785 : 4.42 lakh Cr - 1,850 : 4.58 lakh Cr - 1,900 : 4.70 lakh Cr - 2,000 : 4.95 lakh Cr So, assuming NSE lists around 1,850, it could enter the league of India’s top 10 listed companies by market cap from day one Quite a massive debut for the country’s largest stock exchange