Data detective | Analyst | Narrative storyteller
Dayton, OH
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Supertanker (VLCC) day rates from the Middle East to China have now been above $1.2 million for two weeks in a row.
So when you want to know real oil prices, don't stop at the futures price on your screen. Pull the physical price (about $16 a barrel above futures), then add in shipping (this chart, about $26 to $31 a barrel), then add in insurance (our estimate: about 9% to 14% of the cargo's value). That's a better estimate of the real oil price.
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1/ 3-2-1 refinery crack spread based on Gulf Coast spot prices from the EIA is now over $77 per barrel. Here's how that compares to past 10 years.
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2/ If you want to know why this is happening, you need to understand a bit about how refineries work. We got you covered, as we wrote about this a couple months ago.
data4thepeople.com/p/rip-us-…
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1/ The CPI says gasoline is 4.3% of what Americans spend.
For a family at the 20th percentile of income, it is 8.7% of their take-home pay.
Same pump. Same price. Different life.
We built a free tool so you can find your own number.
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7/ The data to do better already exists, and it is public.
We are calling the ask Inflation 4 The People (#I4TP): report inflation as a distribution of real household experiences, not a single average.
Start with gasoline. It is the easiest one.
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8/ Free tool, no signup, nothing you type leaves your browser.
Read the piece and find your own number:
data4thepeople.com/p/gasolin…
#I4TP
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1/ Diesel hit $6.53 last week, a record in the federal price series that began in 1994, before adjusting for inflation.
At that price the fuel surcharge is about a quarter of a truckload freight bill.
We built a free calculator that follows it to the shelf.
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2/ Set any diesel price and see what it does to freight bills, store prices and the CPI:
data4thepeople.com/p/fuel-su…
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Dayton's ombudsman is the help desk for people who really need help.
Child care went from 1.9% of its cases in 2020 to 18.2% in 2026. It is now the #1 thing the office investigates. As the OBBB rolls out, that will likely grow.
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Full story: data4thepeople.com/p/dayton-…
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Watch what Walmart meant to Benton County, AR: labor force up 71% in 20 years. Washington County next door, up 41%.
The other 73? Down 1.3%. Those two are the only reason the state grew.
Now look at the sea of red. How do we bring those counties back?
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Read the full post:
data4thepeople.com/p/betting… /
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NYC-area small grocers authorized to accept SNAP fell 64% from 2006 to 2025.
Did they close, or just stop taking SNAP? The data can't say. Either way, a drop this big deserves attention.
New Yorkers: are bodegas disappearing on your block?
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Map + data: data4thepeople.com/p/snap-re…
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