0/14 An Application of Stochastic Programming to FPL: robust planning under fixture uncertainty using Linear Optimisation with Recourse ⤵️

WC5 🌞

Cheeky mid-gw overall rank of 987 😎 Easy when you follow the top Solio line 💅 fpl.solioanalytics.com

🎥 Bonus Episode: #FPL GW4 - Wildcard Drafting @FPL_Spaceman is joined by @BakerFPL343 to talk through how to draft a wildcard, model your own beliefs, and plan with uncertainty using stochastic optimisation. piped.video/JeJxsjN9gOY

Which teams have been locked and banned most often by #FPL managers using the Solio rule builder to generate WC, FH and transfer plans? 👇

How I found my FH team:

Another Solio quick tip if you are on FH or WC: Clicking "Alternative" button (after the first solve) tries to find structurally different teams in each iteration. It looks for defense and offense stacks, money spent in positions, premium count, template coverage, and more!

#GW3 Predicted Lineups for @SolioAnalytics All 20 teams 🧵 Arsenal (v CHE)

Reminder that this isn't necessarily a bad thing for #FPL 👇 Summary data from last season and this season, including in-game position switches

There isn't one obvious way to play your #FPL Wildcard in GW3. Using @SolioAnalytics, we built three very different squads: 🔵 The "Big Three" 🛡️ Big at the back 📊 Arsenal DEF + DEFCON midfield But which team predicted to score the most points? 👇 theanalyst.com/articles/fpl-…

🚨LIVE STREAM KLAXON🚨 Going live at 8:45pm with the only FH draft you need this week! Plus some WC and general GW3 Team Selection stuff. We've also reeled in the help of @FF_Trout - because we need it. piped.video/live/20bQt_XUVz0…

#GW2 Predicted Lineups for @SolioAnalytics All 20 teams 🧵 Arsenal

Our #FPL tool is back online and ready for anyone who wants to start planning for GW2 and beyond.

#GW1 Predicted Lineups for @SolioAnalytics All 20 teams 👇

Solio Analytics is a community-driven and self-funded startup that makes #FPL tools. You might have seen some of the graphics @robtFPL puts out, watched one of our podcasts with @Pras_fpl, @FPL_Spaceman, and @dis_fpl, or read one of our collaborative FPL articles with @OptaAnalyst. Below we’ve gathered some useful posts you might want to have a look at before today’s GW1 deadline. Best of luck for the 2026/27 season, #FPLCommunity!

Your rules. Your optimal. Rule Builder is live now for Pro members at fpl.solioanalytics.com #FPL

But is he worth spending the money on for Fantasy Premier League managers? Haaland is priced at a record £15.5m for the 2026-27 FPL season. With the help of @SolioAnalytics, @Edwaardz assesses the reasons for and against picking him early on. theanalyst.com/articles/erli…

How risky is an early bench boost? There has been lots of discussion recently about playing an early bench boost and the risk associated with it. We think risk should be an important factor in your decision-making process, so we want to write about how we define it and some things we think you should consider when creating your gameweek 1 team. Put simply: risk describes how widely your possible outcomes are spread. In #FPL, it can be useful to separate this into absolute risk and relative risk. Absolute risk concerns the range of scores your team could produce on its own. Correlation between players is important here: positively correlated picks, such as a goalkeeper and defender from the same team, tend to succeed or fail together and therefore increase the potential size of your swings, giving you large absolute risk. Negatively correlated picks, such as an attacker and an opposing defender, tend to offset each other because if one succeeds, the other usually fails. This reduces the potential size of your swings, so reduces your absolute risk. Relative risk concerns how your score may move relative to any given group of managers. Selecting or captaining players with high effective ownership (EO) in this sample makes your score more closely resemble the average and reduces the chance of a large rank movement in either direction. Owning players that have low EO in the sample creates greater relative risk: strong returns can produce larger rank gains, but poor returns can leave you behind managers who backed the more popular options. Chip usage can have a large effect on both types of risk. Using a chip in the same gameweek as most other managers will usually produce a similar score profile to those managers, decreasing your chances of gaining or losing points relative to them and therefore decreasing your relative risk. Using a chip in a different gameweek separates your outcome from theirs, creating a greater chance of a large gain or loss, increasing your relative risk. For absolute risk, the effect depends on the chip. A bench boost adds four more assets, and a triple captain concentrates a larger share of your score in one player, both widening your range of outcomes and therefore increasing your absolute risk. A free hit or wildcard doesn't add players, but by removing the usual transfer constraints it lets you dial absolute risk up or down for that week (and beyond with the wildcard) - stacking correlated assets from one or two teams to increase absolute risk, or spreading them across many teams to reduce absolute risk. Your preferred level of risk should depend on your play style and your goals. At the start of the season, a manager aiming for an extremely high overall rank should be more open to both absolute and relative risk, as larger swings create more opportunity to separate from the field. A manager whose main goal is a solid finish may prefer lower-risk decisions that keep their score closer to the average. Extra risk is most useful when it can be added without giving up too many projected points. Choosing between two similarly-priced defenders with comparable projections, the lower-EO option costs you almost nothing in expectation but gives you far more upside if he returns - that risk is close to free. Taking a hit to bring in a differential, or benching a premium to fit one, is not free. So what does all of this mean when it comes to the early bench boost strategy? An early bench boost is a strong strategy. It allows you to build your squad to play the chip without having to use free transfers or carry suboptimal players for a long period of time. There is no risk of rotation from European fixtures, and it takes one important chip decision out of your planning for the rest of the first half of the season. When paired with an early wildcard, the bench boost becomes even stronger - it allows you to aggressively target advantageous fixtures and players who are only projected to score well for a short window, without having to spend transfers removing them afterwards. Caused by late World Cup returns, transfers, injuries, and the way the fixtures have fallen, there are a handful of cheap players who are excellent for a couple of gameweeks and no longer. However, what an early bench boost doesn't give you is separation. This strategy appears to be extremely popular among engaged and analytical managers this season, while much of the wider player base is probably going to hold it for later. So, against the group you are most likely to be racing come the end of the season, playing an early bench boost is closer to the template and holding the chip becomes the differential strategy. The consequences of this difference are not just confined to one week either. An early bench boost team will look very different to a gameweek 1 team that has been set up to last for many gameweeks, so the relative risk grows over time. It should also be noted that model projections are at their most uncertain in gameweek 1 as we don't have as much data to be able to build strong opinions about teams, their systems, and the players within those systems. This uncertainty is not evenly spread, as an early bench boost squad generally reaches further down the price list into players with uncertain minutes or less Premier League experience behind them, while a squad built to last will usually lean on established, known starters whose level we can predict with more confidence. With this in mind, assets that currently look good for an early bench boost might look like mistakes in hindsight. Ultimately, the decision of whether to play an early bench boost comes down to four questions: - how many projected points do you think an early bench boost gains over a later one? - how confident are you in the current projections? - what is it worth to you to take a chip decision off your plate for the rest of the first half of the season? - how happy are you sitting close to most engaged managers to begin the season? Your answers to these questions will push you in different directions, and there is no arrangement of them that is obviously right. Whichever strategy you choose, we hope you choose it because you've thought about these questions, and not because everyone else is doing it.

The Soul vs Solio Season Preview 😇😈Drafts, Strategy, Analysis 📝 Live at 6:30pm: piped.video/watch?v=o2NOhvby… Head or heart. The debate which rages through every decision. Tonight, D-Unit, Trout & myself - Soul, Solio & Sceptic - go head to head to find the winning FPL formula.