The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors
- Tweets 2,908
- Following 7
- Followers 22,661
- Likes 0
ALT Figure 1. The Trajectory of Light Vehicle Production Through the Chip Shortage
ALT Figure 4. Variable- and Fixed-Composition Average Prices
ALT This line chart displays Activity Coefficient γ (gamma) from 1985 through 2025, comparing two estimation methods. The conventional estimate appears as a black solid line, while the optimal pooling estimate is shown as a red dashed line. The y-axis ranges from -0.25 to 1.75. Key finding: The conventional estimate reached its highest point around 2005, peaking at approximately 1.75. Both estimation methods exhibit significant volatility throughout the 40-year period, with values typically fluctuating between 0 and 1.0. The optimal pooling estimate generally appears smoother and tracks somewhat below the conventional estimate. By 2025, both estimates show lower values, ranging between approximately 0.1 and 0.5.
ALT Figure 7: Foreign-Market Organization and Exchange-Rate Transmission
ALT Figure 3. Modified World Gold Reserves and Foreign Holdings of Treasuries (Excludes U.S., Germany, France, Italy, IMF)