Fmr IMF senior official. Fmr IMF Rep in India and Indonesia. Now running JH Consulting, focused on understanding Asian markets.
Washington, DC
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How should India respond to the threat of Trump tariffs? Most suggest it should try to negotiate a deal with the US. But we doubt this strategy will work. Instead, we suggest that India should re-embrace its previous policy of unilateral liberalization.business-standard.com/econom…
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Here’s the ungated version of the piece by Arvind Subramanian, Shoumitro Chatterjee, Abhishek Anand, Naveen Thomas, and I on the existing (as opposed to potential) problem for India’s exports: QCOs.
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The threat of US tariffs now looms over the world's exporters. The problem is especially acute in India, as many exporters there are subject to "QCOs", which restrict imports to government-approved suppliers. We explain today in Business Standard. business-standard.com/econom…
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Pegs are easy to establish. But they are hard to exit, as the new RBI Governor has discovered. How did the central bank wind up in this predicament? Arvind Subramanian, Abhishek Anand, and I investigate.
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Establishing an exchange rate peg is easy. But exiting it is hard, as the new RBI Governor is discovering. How did the central bank wind up in this predicament? Arvind Subramanian, Abhishek Anand, and I investigate.
business-standard.com/financ…
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Consider the following chart of the rupee-dollar exchange rate. Although there's been no official announcement, it's fairly clear what is going on.
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These problems create a vulnerability. If markets perceive the exchange rate is overvalued or that monetary policy needs to re-focus on domestic needs, speculators will attack. (3/4)
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Arvind Subramanian, Abhishek Anand, and I investigate the dilemma this poses for the RBI in our latest column for Business Standard. (4/4)
business-standard.com/econom…
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Arvind Subramanian and I examine this issue in our latest piece in Business Standard.
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business-standard.com/econom…
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Without any public announcement or discussion, the RBI has abandoned the relatively flexible exchange rate regime in place since 1991. Arvind Subramanian and I investigate the consequences.
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Without any public announcement or discussion, the RBI has abandoned the relatively flexible exchange rate policy in place since 1991. Arvind Subramanian and I investigate.
business-standard.com/opinio…
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What should we think of the Indian budget? If you watch tv, commentators will assure you that it is a 10 out of 10. But did it really recognise the big problems the economy is facing? And are the measures likely to solve them? My take:
marginaleconomist.com/india-…
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