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More crude oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz than at any time since the outbreak of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Still, shipments of refined products and LNG remains severely restricted, and the standoff is fuelling global inflation (1/3)
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European gas prices remain near their highest in three years and OCI #Nitrogen curtailed production in the Netherlands. Transit of #fertilizers and inputs appears lower down the priority list, though tonnes are still escaping the chokepoint (2/3)
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China is set to play a major role in India’s latest #urea import tender this week following a fourth final round of quota export allocations. Despite a severe #sulphur supply crisis that has driven up production costs, DAP/MAP prices were largely stable (3/3) #fertilizer
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The reduction in #sulphur supply due to the conflict in the Middle East and the Hormuz closure (plus export restrictions from Kazakhstan and Russia) is evident in trade. Imports by major consumers for Q1-Q3 are estimated down nearly 40%, with the most severe drop in China
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CRU's expectation, unchanged by last week’s announcements, is that Canada will remain the lowest-cost and most readily available source of US #potash supply over the medium term. Further tariffs or restrictions on Canadian imports would fall mostly on US farmers #MOP #fertilizer
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Donald Trump signed the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act into law on 18 September. Uncertainty remains around potential treatment of #fertilizer under the legislation, but restriction on Russian supply could severely impact US pricing for #nitrogen #urea #UAN
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Still, around 190kt of Saudi #phosphates have exited Hormuz to date in September. The US passed sweeping new Russia sanctions legislation, potentially exposing Russian #fertilizer imports to additional tariffs (3/4)
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#Urea extended is recent climb last week, with global prices up sharply. US #nitrogen, #phosphate and #potash prices all rose. #Sulphur is now falling from record highs as buyers step back and demand dries up (4/4) #fertilizer
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China's #urea exports have spiked from their 2024 low. China exported 520 kt in August, preliminary customs data show. China has now released the third round of quota allocations, according to sources, with the total volume expected around 2 Mt #nitrogen #fertilizer
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China's lower-priced domestic #sulphur supply allows margins for #phosphate producers to creep back into positive territory, even though China's producers are locked out of the export market and limited to lower-priced domestic sales #fertilizer
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European natural-gas prices spiked to their highest in more than three years, with #fertilizer production costs for both feedstock and finished products surging in Europe. China is expected to float a third export quota allocation for #urea in the coming days (1/3)
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Two vessels passed the Strait of Hormuz in the past week loaded with #phosphates, while DAP/MAP prices sank in India, Brazil and elsewhere but remained firm in the US. Middle East producers cut monthly #sulphur export prices, while other S benchmarks were largely unchanged (3/3)
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Our chart of the week shows increasing pressure on European #nitrogen margins due to a surge in gas prices, with CRU analysts this week publishing a detailed insight on the situation for our clients and subscribers #fertilizer #urea #ammonia
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A recent rally in agricultural prices, combined with some declines in DAP/MAP prices, has left #phosphate fertilizers more affordable than they have been for much of this year #fertilizer
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This chart shows a severe reduction in #phosphate #fertilizer exports this year. Much of this is due to the #sulphur supply crisis, which has pushed up costs and led many fertilizer producers to cut output. Most importantly, it has intensified China's export restrictions
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Happening Tomorrow! join us to find out how supply disruption, higher input volatility and weather risk are converging across Asian fertilizer markets.
Don't miss out. Register Now: ow.ly/XbTE50ZysoM
#ElNino #Climate #Fertilizer #Asia #Supply
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This chart shows fluctuations in India #urea tender prices, with prices on the latest session falling due to good availability from China. This contrasts with the high prices seen shortly after the initial Hormuz closure during Chinese export restrictions #nitrogen #fertilizer
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