Canadaβs Trade βWarβ Scoreboard To Date
MEASURABLE LOSSES
50% Tariffs on most non-CUSMA Canadian Exports
Complete US BAN on all Canadian alcohol
Confirmed closures or hard shrinks of Businesses in Canada:
β’ Algoma Steel (Sault Ste. Marie) β laid off about a thousand workers in March, then accelerated shutdown of its blast furnace and coke operations, blaming fifty-percent steel tariffs that made traditional integrated steelmaking unviable.
β’ RYAM (TΓ©miscaming, Quebec) β indefinitely idled its paperboard mill September fifteenth, roughly four hundred workers, explicitly citing the new tariffs.
β’ Novelis (Kingston) β cut about eighty staff, a third of the plant, over Section 232 aluminum duties.
β’ Fine Cotton Factory (Toronto) β threatening small layoffs among two hundred fifty workers after US orders dried up.
β’ Canadian Metal Buildings (Hamilton) β lost essentially all its US business.
Moving or actively planning to move south:
β’ Stellantis β shifted next-gen Jeep Compass production from Brampton, Ontario to Illinois in late 2025; the Brampton plant has sat idle since 2023 and is now reportedly being shopped to a defense firm.
β’ Honda β moved CR-V production for the US market from Alliston, Ontario to Ohio, while swapping some non-US volume back to Canada to hold employment flat.
β’ GoliathTech (Magog) β opened a US plant in January 2026 after paying two million in tariffs the prior year.
β’ Aeris Protective Packaging (Montreal) β opening a US plant because seventy percent of clients are American.
β’ Sapporo β shifting some beer production from Canada to the US.
β’ Northern Cables (Brockville) β CEO says theyβll have to βgo shoppingβ for a US factory if tariffs stick; three hundred twenty jobs at stake.
β’Stelco Steel - shutting down indefinitely October 9th - 500 workers laid off
The broader picture: a KPMG survey of two hundred seventy-five manufacturers found twenty-nine percent had already moved some or all production south, another thirteen percent planning to, with seventy-seven percent of those expecting to move within two years.
MEASURABLE WINS:
Mark Carneyβs Polling Numbers