Global Macro PM | +2,071% since May 2020 (audited) | Ex-GS | Trading the information delta across equities, indices, sectors & FX

Paris, France
I might regret saying this but this is a March 2000 setup: Huge inflation + EPS that needs to be revised down by 10 to 30 pts + gross 300% positioning into AI. NQ needs to correct 10 to 20% That capex curve that feeds the EPS is not happening. Now you understand why NVDA was trading "cheaply".
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GS is out there pushing this stock up. you can check their arguments @zerohedge I think it doesn't answer any of the financing worries : Goldman’s CoreWeave upgrade still rests on a very large financing assumption. The argument for stronger contract economics is credible. Tight compute supply, higher revenue per megawatt and better contract margins can improve project returns. The unresolved question is how much of that improvement ultimately reaches existing shareholders after funding the build-out. Goldman’s own 2027 model forecasts $48bn of cash capex against $19.8bn of operating cash flow. That leaves $28.2bn of negative free cash flow. Its solution is $26.6bn of net new debt, alongside a cash drawdown that leaves approximately $1.2bn at year-end. There is no cash equity raise in that forecast. Goldman models financing successfully closing; the forecast itself does not establish that the required facilities are committed. Original Goldman report Adding the $6.2bn of scheduled 2027 principal repayments disclosed in June implies approximately $32.8bn of gross financing, before additional amortization from subsequent borrowing. That is a consolidated funding requirement—not a claim that the parent must raise $32.8bn. CoreWeave filing The actual loan terms matter. Disclosed facilities range from 70% to 90% advances against eligible project costs, with different reserves, draw conditions and distribution restrictions. A headline borrowing commitment cannot automatically be treated as cash available to fund every dollar of capex or support the parent. DDTL 5.5, DDTL 4 Our sensitivity illustrates the stakes: At 70% advances and 80–90% capex eligibility, approximately $2.6–5.9bn remains to be funded elsewhere. Delaying 10% of draws in the lower-eligibility case increases that residual to $8.6bn. More favourable 80% advances with 90% eligibility cover the annual bridge. Those are assumptions, not disclosed funding forecasts. They show why neither inevitable dilution nor effortless financing is established. The cash-generation forecast also deserves scrutiny: $6.95bn—35% of Goldman’s 2027 operating cash flow—comes from working-capital inflows. Customer and supplier cash timing therefore matters materially alongside contract profitability. Goldman model Any residual must be addressed through additional borrowing, customer funding, equity, asset transactions or reduced spending. For scale, a $5bn equity raise at Goldman’s $61.39 reference price would create approximately 81 million new shares, before fees. Goldman already forecasts share-count growth; financing-related issuance would need to be assessed beyond those existing assumptions. The burden of proof is a credible financing bridge and an attractive return per share after funding costs, repayments and potential dilution.
$CRWV: DON'T BUY THAT DIP. Our model implies another $27-36bn of financing through end-2027, after identified cash and facilities. Real AI demand. A financing machine that must keep running. The equity absorbs the shock. fiatelpis.com/research/crwv-…
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Saâd FILALI KHATTABI - FIATELPIS retweeted
J’ai entendu dire que la France était finie, qu’il était trop tard pour la sauver. Mais la France est toujours aussi belle, enviable même. Sa grandeur n’a pas disparu, elle ne demande qu’à renaître. Nous avons surmonté en un an un problème cent fois plus grave, sans avoir les moyens dont dispose la France. La France pourrait y arriver en une semaine.
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Saâd FILALI KHATTABI - FIATELPIS retweeted
Jean Marie Le Pen: "Vous ne devez pas en vouloir aux immigrés..."
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$CRWV: DON'T BUY THAT DIP. Our model implies another $27-36bn of financing through end-2027, after identified cash and facilities. Real AI demand. A financing machine that must keep running. The equity absorbs the shock. fiatelpis.com/research/crwv-…
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I know the guy's a billionaire and all but getting involved in the EQUITY of these neoclouds is retarded.
Breaking: Leopold Aschenbrenner's holdings are crashing today • $CRWV CoreWeave: -15.1% • $IREN IREN: -9.7% • $NBIS Nebius: -9.4% • $CORZ Core Scientific: -8.7% • $KEEL Keel: -8.7% • $SHAZ SharonAI: -8.7% Next filing is November 16 to see what positions changed
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RE PPIs and CPIs; there's one year of pentup inflation in the "backlog" ie get ready for a series of bad prints :
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CoreWeave is in a capex trap: it cannot cut capex without destroying revenue, and it cannot sustain capex without continuous capital markets access at spreads that are now 1,050 bps. The only viable paths are: 1. Massive equity issuance to replace high-cost unsecured debt with equity capital 2. Hyperscaler acquisition — Microsoft or Google buys the asset base outright 3. NVIDIA exercises its backstop and absorbs the GPU fleet directly Spreads compress as AI demand data validates the 2029 earnings inflection I think 50% chance the equity of CoreWeave is a 0.
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CoreWeave: the buildout can survive while shareholders lose everything CoreWeave’s annualized Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $6bn. A six-year replacement assumption for its technology fleet implies $5.6bn of annual reinvestment, leaving almost nothing before interest and other capital needs. Against that sits approximately $30bn of net debt and finance-lease claims at June-end. (CoreWeave filings) The equity therefore depends on a substantial earnings ramp. Financing that ramp adds creditor claims or dilutes shareholders; cutting the buildout weakens the revenue growth supporting the debt. Our bear case is a recapitalisation that preserves the infrastructure and contracts while wiping out existing common equity. The thesis breaks if the financed fleet delivers substantially higher cash returns after replacement spending, without new capital providers absorbing the improvement.
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I'm surprised market isn't dropping 2%
$16.8B in Q3 implies Aug/Sep were ~flat (likely incl. of distillation). Do your own math but $100B+ by YE is pipe dream. GGWP all, that's the ball game.
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Short NQ/NKY/SMH. Long TLT & gold. $218bn neocloud capex in 2027-28. CRWV/APLD after-capex coverage: -5.96x/-12.61x in 2027. Our bear case: $44-55bn of capex cut or delayed. We put CRWV equity wipeout odds at 50%. fiatelpis.com/research/neocl…
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5/6. CRWV is trapped: 2027 EBITDA less interest and principal leaves $5.2bn against $48.3bn capex. Cutting the buildout weakens the growth needed to support debt. Recapitalisation or asset sales can save capacity while wiping equity. Nvidia buys compute, not debt.
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6/6. We expect $44-55bn of capex cuts/delays. Supplier orders and EPS follow unless other buyers absorb them. Short NQ/NKY/SMH for the AI earnings reset. Long TLT/gold for easing yield pressure as investment slows. TLT: about +7.4% for a 50bp yield decline.
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no end to the amount of problems. bearish very. again.
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These guys really don't wanna fight inflation. long gold
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