FINANCIAL STABILITY STATEMENT |
@BankofZambia
At its October 2026 Meeting, the Financial Stability Committee ("FSC" or "Committee") assessed near- term risks to financial stability to have increased since the April 2026 Meeting, primarily reflecting the anticipated effects of the El Niรฑo-induced drought and floods in some areas. Exposure to adverse weather conditions has potential to amplify systemic risk amid existing threats, especially from prolonged and worsening geopolitical tensions, resulting in higher energy and fertilizer prices, tighter global financial conditions, and persistent cybersecurity risk.
The Committee notes that growth and fiscal risks have increased amidst adequate external buffers and low inflation. Economic growth prospects are being overshadowed by the anticipated drought. Subdued financial intermediation and weak private sector credit growth also continues to constrain the effective contribution of the financial sector to economic activity. Although the sovereign-bank nexus has moderated, the fiscal sector is vulnerable to climate-related spending pressures, exchange rate volatility, and refinancing risks.
On the other hand, stress in the financial markets eased as yields on Government securities fell, liquidity improved, and exchange rate volatility of the Kwacha against major currencies declined. Commercial banks have maintained resilience, supported by strong capital, liquidity, and profitability. In addition, non-bank financial institutions have remained broadly sound with a notable reduction in non-performing loans associated with public workers, observed previously. Insurance companies, pension funds, and collective investment schemes (CIS) have also stayed broadly resilient. Further, payment and settlement systems continued to support financial stability.
Nevertheless, vulnerabilities persisted from concentrated loans and deposits, a rising share of foreign-currency-denominated credit, and weak financial intermediation, as reflected in the persistently negative credit-to-GDP gap. Increased non-resident holdings of Government securities relative to international reserves also emerged as a vulnerability. In addition, the equity market continues to be structurally illiquid, while the corporate bond market remains shallow. Microfinance exposure to common shocks and liquidity pressures arising from concentrated lending to public services workers has increased. Insurance companies, pension funds, and CIS have continued to face market, liquidity, and climate-related risks. These include weak insurance underwriting performance and vulnerability to the imminent drought, pension funds and CIS' exposure to offshore markets and Government securities, and CIS' elevated concentration in illiquid assets. Persistent fraud and cyber threats, together with reliance on shared technologies and service providers, could also accelerate the transmission of operational shocks.
Stress test results showed that a severe El Niรฑo-induced drought could weaken economic activity, raise inflation, and tighten financing conditions, leading to slower deposit and credit growth, pick-up in non- performing loans, and weakening of profitability and capital buffers. However, even under stress, banking sector capitalisation would be maintained well above the 10 percent prudential requirement.
Although near-term risks have increased, system-wide vulnerabilities are assessed to be manageable, and banks continue to hold adequate capital and liquidity buffers. In view of this, the Committee decided to maintain the Countercyclical Capital Buffer at 0.00 percent. The Committee will continue to monitor developments and adjust the macroprudential policy stance, if the risks to financial stability intensify.
The next FSC Statement will be issued in April 2027.
Denny H. Kalyalya (Dr.)
GOVERNOR
Bank Square, Cairo Road P.O. Box 30080, Lusaka, Zambia
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