Mostly finance nerd, plus Tech/Med Device space
Philadelphia, PA
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$FICO -28%
This is a story of greed.
Raising your prices 1500% in 6 years, and then levering up to repurchase shares in one quarter.
The $FICO algorithm could be written by a Compsci grad student. It was so cheap no one bothered to compete. Then they 10x’d the price, pissed consumers off and attracted competition.
Strategically probably still smart! But believing they have a wide moat is a mistake IMO
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$MSFT Going to be the "Muse" of enterprise. They're in pole position for it. I watch them get further embedded at work by the year, and CoPilot is getting a lot better.
Like $META, Softy is still down from this time last year which is crazy.
We’re building Copilot as a new OS for work that spans every model, every form factor, and every task. Today, we’re announcing our biggest update to Copilot to date, bringing four things together:
· Autopilot: proactive and long-running agent built for the enterprise
· Code: build apps with Copilot, hosted inside your company’s tenant
· Home: Chat + Cowork together
· Office: now fully embedded in Copilot (and Copilot embedded in Office, of course!)
Plus, you can invoke Copilot in Teams, and we’re introducing Today, a proactive experience that surfaces the most important information from across M365 without needing to ask for it.
The way we work is changing and so are our workflows. This update brings AI into that flow, from answering a question, to building an app, to getting work done on your behalf.
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Many Prefs/CEFs will see selling into year end. 5 years of straight down. Folks OK holding down 25% hoping for a rebound but at 40%+ will sell.
I like duration now (haven't in a long time.) Many things could tighten the long end and spark a big fixed income rally into 2027.
Added to PDI ~14.07.. not working out too well. Knives out for a ton of pimco CEFs.. but also just CEFs overall. Next stop 10% discount? yeah maybe.
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$META well this was an enormous screw up. Actually, the screw up was not rebuying after the lawsuit was settled.
My lack of conviction/impatience (and general distrust of this market) continues to be my biggest investing flaw.
$META Ok, this turned into a trade. Sold this morning at $563, which stinks because it was over $600.
Value is here, but too many negative catalysts ahead. Lawsuit kicking off today will hang over shares and any signs of revenue decel will hurt shares bad.
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Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B
Warren Buffett stepping down as Chairman, Howard Buffett taking over. Howard shouldn't even be on the BoD let alone chairman.
Hope Warren is OK and does something besides sit in an office in Omaha in his remaining years.
berkshirehathaway.com/news/s…
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Good take. $DAC and $GSL at 3x earnings with little debt.
Anyone see anything like this today? What’s cheap-ish quality now?
A few years ago, you could buy tobacco companies at 10% yields. A little bit before that, you could buy $C for half of book value. Six years ago, you could buy oil companies for basically nothing. These are just examples that I could think of in a few seconds. Value still works.
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OneOK tender offer results are interesting. They're buying back longer dated debt at discounts, so the $2B in debt reduction will remove ~$2.4B-ish in gross debt.
Present value of OKE debt is meaningfully less than the number on the balance sheet.
ir.oneok.com/news-and-events…
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Seems like a big deal:
QatarEnergy is negotiating with several producers to secure multi-year U.S. liquefied natural gas contracts through 2031 to replace capacity knocked out by Iranian attacks that will take years to repair, three trading and industry sources said.
Discussions include with Venture Global ($VG), Cheniere $LNG and Woodside, two of the sources said.
The contract talks are part of the company's efforts to replace lost volumes from its Ras Laffan facility after two of its 14 LNG trains and a gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility were damaged by Iranian strikes in March, the sources said. The discussions also mark a shift from QatarEnergy's purchases of dozens of U.S. spot LNG cargoes to help meet commitments to some of its Asian clients, suggesting it is now seeking longer-term solutions to cover the shortfall.
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$MSFT down $4 AH on this.
They added 1GW last 2 quarters.
There's 25 more quarters to YE32 to add 26GW. This is about 1GW/quarter.
They're already FCF positive and will be throwing off tons of FCF 2028/2029.\
Bloomberg says Microsoft $MSFT plans to more than triple its data center capacity by 2032.
Their numbers show a plan for 26GW of new data center capacity. The average cost of building 1GW of DC capacity is about $40 billion.
That implies $1.04 trillion of capex in the next six years.
The AI buildout is far from over.
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$HRB hi 👋
The Rodney Dangerfield of stocks.
Grew EBiTDA 8% last year, guiding for 6% this year so they’ll probably do 8% again.
Under 8x FCF/EPS, returning all $ to owners. Deserves a high multiple.
Any $HRB investors out there?
This one popped back on the radar recently.
At face level the thesis is compelling: huge buybacks, undemanding valuation, potential 1-2% growth upside.
Also interesting how Li Lu got in and out in quick succession.
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So $CPB down 7% with a EPS cut to $1.65-1.80 and a dividend cut. It's now 12-13x. $KHC down too, $CAG down 3.5% even thought they cut their divvy already.
These are all still sells IMO. 11-12x too expensive for levered with declining revs.
The answer to this question was No with a 20% underperformance.
Buying co's with flat/declining revs is hard. These companies have done a decent job controlling costs, too. But flat revs for 10 years -> 35% real rev decline. Hard to make money like that.
$KHC $SJC $CPB $CAG
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$MSFT $GOOG $AMZN
This seems bearish if
1. You don’t know what it represents
2. Your negative confirmation bias needs feeding
This alone says little. To be useful you need
1. Blended token price (the index)
2. Token volume or GPU-hours
3. Realized cloud AI revenue / utilization
Price without volume is just mix-shift and efficiency. This price drop happened concurrently with a 6x increase in volume, which is why rental rates keep going up. Bullish for the hyper scalers.
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$MU Out of this at $942.
I feel like I need to take a shower every time I trade a name like this.
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$CALY Callaway Golf
This is going to be Streisand effect-y. The video was stupid, the DEI virtue signaling also stupid.
Surprised its not down more than this.
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Energy Transfer $ET
KW back with a cool million units purchase.
Still think this is one of the most mispriced securities available. EV/EBIDTA under 8x, leverage already below 4x and heading lower.
Should be $30/unit.
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Agree with Rod. Added a little $ZIM today. Selling off because there wasn't a guidance increase most likely, but there is zero incentive to provide one with the $HPGLY deal pending.
Favorable risk/reward here IMO. I'd add here if it goes down further.
It's imperative to appreciate the changed operating landscape pre-Iran War & post, as the agreed upon deal came weeks before those hostilities erupted.
I'll continue to size up here in my Roth, as even a closed deal yields a ~30%+ spread & awfully high IRR on recycled capital.
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$META Ok, this turned into a trade. Sold this morning at $563, which stinks because it was over $600.
Value is here, but too many negative catalysts ahead. Lawsuit kicking off today will hang over shares and any signs of revenue decel will hurt shares bad.
$META Meta
Good article from @WisemanCap
I bought a bit at $540 post earnings. Not sure if it’s an investment or a trade yet.
Any indication reality labs spending is slowing or CapEx has peaked and this flys to $700. It has lots of support under $550.
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