ATH: December 2017 ATL: December 2018 ATH: November 2021 ATL: November 2022 ATH: October 2025 ATL: October 2026? It seems like the entire Bitcoin cycle is shifting backward by roughly one month every four years. If we actually get the cycle ATL in October 2026, I’ll consider OP’s prediction remarkably accurate; even if the exact day-count math was off. If the pattern continues: September 2029 — ATH? September 2030 — ATL?

If this Russian plague is even half as bad as people are saying, there’s a non-zero chance we live in the following timeline: Lockdowns come back. Stimmy checks come back. GTA VI drops at the exact best possible moment. Everyone spends the next year indoors playing GTA, jerking off, gambling on crypto and prediction markets. COVID 2.0 liquidity cycle. Total degeneracy. Except this time, if the disease is actually bad enough that reopening becomes genuinely difficult, the physical economy still has to function. Power plants and the grid still need to stay online. Roads still need to be built. Warehouses still need to run. Mines, factories, construction sites, logistics, data centers and critical infrastructure. None of it can just stop. Enter humanoid robots? They can’t catch the plague. So while everyone is inside jerking off, playing GTA, buying shitcoins and betting on when the lockdowns end, robots quietly start taking over the physical world. At the same time, AI agents keep eating more and more of the white-collar economy. Then a few years pass. Eventually it’s safe for humans to go back outside, except by then two things have happened at once. The robots are cheaper, faster and better at most physical work. Software agents are doing huge chunks of white-collar work with almost no human involvement. And everyone else has spent years getting used to staying home, living on government checks, playing GTA, jerking off, trading shitcoins and gambling on prediction markets. So nobody really goes back. Not because they can’t, but because the economy no longer needs most of them to. The temporary emergency lifestyle quietly becomes permanent. Humans get UBI, stay home, jerk off, play GTA VII, trade shitcoins and gamble on prediction markets while an army of robots, agents and whoever’s still bothered to work keep civilization running.

I don’t know what to think about the new Russian virus propaganda but if the reptilian saturn worshipping communists played the long con where they first released Covid (fake) and then the vaccine that killed you specifically to train me into distrusting viruses and vaccines so they could later release an actually deadly one that would kill me without treatment knowing I would rather die than take a vaccine because the point was now to cull the insubordinates then they have succeeded and I will perish.

boomers were psyopped into thinking nuclear energy was bad but it turns out you can make a nuclear plant that literally shits gold

Looking for the Kalshi bet on this

Something I keep thinking about with Flare. In April 2019, before the Xpring investment, Flare co founder Sean Rowan already described on the Interledger forum a very specific use case: digital securities + KYC → smart contracts on Flare → directly linked to an XRPL wallet. And to explain the lifecycle of these digital securities, he was literally pointing to Securitize DS Protocol. Then few months later, November 2019: Ripple/Xpring invests in Flare. Hugo says Xpring brings Flare “resources and partners” to serve their needs beyond payments. And Securitize is announced as one of Flare first users. So this part is important: Securitize + regulated assets + KYC + XRPL + Flare programmability was already part of the idea in 2019. Fast forward. BlackRock later chooses Securitize for BUIDL and invests into Securitize. Today Securitize connects into institutional DeFi infrastructure like Aave Horizon and Upshift. And who is also around these same rails? Sentora. Sentora works with Horizon, builds vaults with Upshift, and was funded by Ripple + Flare. Sentora then incubated Firelight. Upshift itself is now used for FXRP vaults on Flare. So the road starts looking like: BlackRock → Securitize → institutional RWA → Horizon / Upshift → Sentora → Flare ecosystem This does NOT mean BlackRock is secretly behind Flare. I have zero proof of this. But what is interesting is that the architecture Sean Rowan was talking about in 2019 is slowly appearing today, just with much more mature pieces around it. Regulated asset stays compliant/custodied somewhere. Then another layer gives it: vaults, lending, collateral, strategies, risk management, programmability. And this is exactly where Flare seems to position itself. SBI is another road, but strangely similar plumbing: SBI → Evernorth / SBI Ripple Asia → Doppler → FXRP vaults → Flare. BlackRock/Securitize road looks more like: RWA → compliant institutional DeFi. SBI road looks more like: XRP → institutional capital → productive XRP/FXRP. Different starting point, maybe similar destination. And there is another thing I find interesting: the capital behind some investors. Funds around Flare/Sentora/Firelight are not always using only “crypto VC money”. New Form said it raised from undisclosed Wall Street LPs including macro funds, PE and bankers. Tribe has reported LP capital from public pension funds, endowments and sovereign wealth funds. So when we see “New Form” or “Tribe” on a cap table, this is the fund manager name. Not necessarily the final source of the capital. It does NOT allow us to say BlackRock, a pension fund or a sovereign fund specifically financed Flare. We don't know this. But it shows how institutional money can finance this infrastructure one layer removed, without the institution name appearing directly. I also would not claim Flare moved away from XRP in 2021 because of the Ripple/SEC case. There is no proof of that. But Flare clearly broadened its story during those years. And now, interestingly, it seems to come back very strongly to the original idea: take assets that are limited where they live, and make the capital programmable somewhere else. XRP is one example. Tokenized securities can be another. If we really follow Sean Rowan’s 2019 logic, this may be where all of this is going. $FLR $XRP

Bird connected some real dots here. Let me break it down simply 👇 • Evernorth is a company holding ~473M XRP. It starts trading on Nasdaq Oct 8 as $XRPN, so regular investors can own XRP exposure through a stock • In January, Evernorth teamed up with Doppler, a company that helps XRP earn yield (like interest on savings) • Today, Doppler connected to Flare, which lets XRP be used in more ways to earn Nothing confirmed that Evernorth will use Flare. But the connections are forming. That's why I watch the ecosystem, not just the price.

10 Days of Darkness. Time Traveled. October 4 is 88 days away from EOY.

Always found this chart fascinating Women increasingly dominate as platforms move towards appearance / social life / social proof Men increasingly dominate as they move towards information / ideas / work

Yes The Supreme Court needs to over turn this ruling

it’s honestly insane how much of the modern tech tree has been unlocked because of a single guy thanks to Elon we have - online payments - mass market electric cars - batteries and grid-scale energy storage - self driving cars and robotaxis - humanoid robots - advanced brain computer interfaces - next generation tunneling - reusable rockets -global satellite internet - basically the modern space industry - Moon and Mars transportation - orbital compute and space data centers - frontier AI - gigantic AI supercomputers - physical world AI and the wildest part is that these branches are now starting to merge there is a very real chance that this one guy ends up being the reason humanity reaches Kardashev II genuinely the man of the millennium

There are really three distinct claims here: 1. Is Claude conscious? The Pope says no. I agree 2. Can a machine ever become conscious? The Pope says no. I disagree; but that is ultimately an open question, and time may settle it better than anything I can write today. 3. Should the Catholic Church align itself with preserving the privileged status of human artists against machines? This is where I push back most strongly. The instinct to preserve art as an exclusively human domain risks turning artistic creation into a kind of positional good: something whose value depends partly on restricting who may participate in it. That strikes me as strangely aristocratic and, more importantly, at odds with the Church’s own emphasis on human dignity, universality, and resistance to status-based exclusion. The Church should be extraordinarily cautious about defending a form of artificial scarcity simply because technological abundance threatens the exclusivity, status, or economic position of an established creative class.

I consider myself very progressive (Not a DEM) and only have a few lines I feel shouldn’t be crossed This actually may be added to my list.

KWeather's Official Oracle Now Commits Hourly Weather Data to Flare Mainnet 🤝 In July, KWeather and @FlareNetworks signed an LOI to bring weather data onchain. The first layer is live. Weather Data Market, @Kweather_Co's official oracle, reduces 11 sources to one consensus value per city, for 167 cities, every hour. Each run is committed to Flare mainnet as it happens, and the results land in a registry any settlement contract can read. Subscriptions are paid in native $XRP on the XRP Ledger, priced by FTSO's XRP/USD feed at the moment of quote.

Artificial Intelligence is itself a work of art and everything it creates is, in some sense, an extension of that original work. We taught matter to manipulate language, compose music, paint images, and reflect fragments of human thought back at us. The model is not merely a tool for producing art. It may be one of humanity’s most extraordinary artistic creations.

In the beginning, God vibe-coded light. And there was light. No documentation. No unit tests. Straight to production. Then He looked upon the output and saw that it was good.

I largely agree. And I wonder whether some of the resistance is less about ontology than about positional scarcity. For centuries, aristocratic taste has assigned extraordinary value to the scarce: rare foods, bespoke clothing, singular works of art, precious materials, limited craftsmanship. Scarcity itself becomes a form of distinction. AI threatens something deeper than the method of production: it threatens the scarcity of creation. If a machine can produce something aesthetically indistinguishable from a human masterpiece, then perhaps what has been diminished is not the art itself, but the exclusivity we attached to its origin.

Only God creates ex nihilo. The human artist does something different. We receive. We observe. We imitate. We abstract. We combine. We transform. We participate. The painter did not invent light. The musician did not invent frequency. The sculptor did not invent stone. The architect did not invent geometry. The poet did not invent language. The photographer did not create the sunset. And none of them created the human faculties through which beauty can first be perceived. St. Paul asks a devastatingly simple question: “What do you have that you did not receive?” —1 Corinthians 4:7 St. Augustine recognized that truth, wherever encountered, ultimately belongs to God. St. Thomas Aquinas understood human art as operating through an order and causality that precede us.

Here is the “Featherless Biped” @Pontifex